Picking is explained pretty well in Norman's guide: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NyhCpIQKShAbWGXicO_ph9whV_UyMS-3a7_re0C7R8Y/edit#heading=h.g1s8mzy7wor0
Can't help you with the other thing, though, but it's a good reason not to be an asshole/get embroiled in drama. Being nice to people doesn't hurt you. :)
As for a more generalized/abstract view of picking:
Let r be the pick round
Let n be the number of picks you've already gotten
Let p be your preference rank for the pick you end up getting (like 1,2,3,etc.)
For each round, assuming that you've made at least r picks:
n < p <= r
This is ultra-trivial but you can use it to figure out what sort of scenarios you need to account for.
For a 1v1 on Strategic ME (keep in mind that picks are cyclic, and in this case go P1-P2-P2-P1-P1-P2, where P1 is whoever gets first pick)
- n = 0
- r = 1
0 < p <= 1
- n = 0
- r = 2
0 < p <= 2
- n = 1 (pick from R2)
- r = 3
1 < p <= 3
- n = 1 (pick from R1)
- r = 4
1 < p <= 4
- n = 2 (picks from R1 and R4)
- r = 5
2 < p <= 5
- n = 2 (picks from R2 and R3)
- r = 6
2 < p <= 6
so if you get first pick, your possibile combos look like:
((1st pick), (2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick), (3rd, 4th, or 5th pick))- of course, you'll have to filter out repeat scenarios like (1,3,3) from there.
((1st or 2nd pick), (2nd or 3rd pick), (3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th pick)).
You can use this to figure out exactly which scenarios you'll have to worry about when making your picks. Try to account for as many of them as you can, paying the most attention to the most likely scenarios (which vary on the map, so it also matters a lot that you can read the map).
Also, I probably screwed up the math in this post. I'm also not the best at picking, so take everything I said with about 2 and a half tablespoons of sea salt (or to taste).