Strange outcomes.

turn 14, my opponent hits 16 armies at my 18
my opponent loses 9,
i lose 12.
16v18 ends up as 7v6 (Unexpected)

Similar ratio
turn 17
my opponent hits 9 at my 12,
he loses 9,
i lose 4,
9v12 ends up as 1v8 (Expected)

Both attacks are similar, with my defending armies outnumbering his attacking ones, but very different results.
is it because of 75% luck or did i understand the numbers wrongly?

game is here btw:
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4799044

You understand it well and it is luck based

first attack in turn 14
offense luck= 2.40
defense luck= -2.59

second attack in turn 17
offense luck= -1.39
defense luck= 0.60

ah ok ty, how did you get those numbers?

Here's the luck graphic for your game.

okay, i can see from turn 13 to turn 14, my luck dropped from -8 to -15.8. HOw do I find out the offensive and defensive luck MIrror found?

Go into statistics and select the required field from the metric drop down menu.

Just hover your mouse over the given attack and it will provide that info in a popup bubble