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Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 22:52:30


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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random is random is random is random. all just the luck of the role. but the chance he is going to be town every time is:

9/13 * 6/9 * 8/12 (assuming 3 mafia this time) = 1/3ish (31%)

that means there is a 79% chance he is mafia.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 22:53:34


Riveath
Level 59
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Evidence? What kind of evidence do you want me to provide?

If someone has a way to check if I'm a townie or a bandit, feel free to.

Besides, I doubt it goes that way, Speck. Before, it was Smithereens who was assigning the roles, this time, it's Luna. That changes a lot.

Edited 11/2/2015 22:54:54
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 22:55:03


d1plons 
Level 54
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Well starting with your role would probably be best
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 22:56:45


d1plons 
Level 54
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And MightySpeck I meant statistically he should be more like to get it each time he doesn't
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:00:40


Riveath
Level 59
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Besides, Speck, 79% + 31% = 110 % And also, Speck hasn't been a mafia yet, either.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:01:06


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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... i really hope they aren't assigning roles and just making totally random.

and that's what my math shows Diplo.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:01:24


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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Fuck math.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:02:10


Riveath
Level 59
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That means Speck has the same probability of being a mafia as I do.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:05:53


d1plons 
Level 54
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Yes but I'm good with you for now :)

Are you refraining from saying your role?
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:09:21


SirSalty
Level 49
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Yes but exposing his role either way could be bad for him.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:12:37


d1plons 
Level 54
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Well if it's bad for townies, it'll be a honest mistake, but I'm still gonna ask
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:13:33


Riveath
Level 59
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I mean, I don't get why I should be the one to reveal my role first. I am refraining for now.

Why don't you? You seem very suspicious just because of probability, which isn't really a good factor.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:13:53


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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The Onion, Death, A Talking Fan, and I have all not been Town and have a statically 31% chance of being town overtime

(also the 79% chance is wrong, it makes no sense now that i think about it.) (and i don't mean that it should be 69% chance)

and everyone has a 25% chance of being mafia (assuming there is 3 mafia, including the named above.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:14:49


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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obliviously spelling is not on my side in this game.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:15:42


Riveath
Level 59
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I shall not reveal my role for now as it's a pretty important one. Enough said.

If a Cop is out here, he can investigate me to see I'm not a mafia.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:17:47


d1plons 
Level 54
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I've also been Mafia before. And okay Death, if you're refraining, how about you MightySpeck? Will you reveal your role?
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:20:02


d1plons 
Level 54
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And Death, I'm not very suspicious, just trying to move the game along and get clues
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:22:03


Riveath
Level 59
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It's okay, DI, I understand. You're the silent investigator :)

And I see where you're coming from. Though one of the new guys (Colonel, Jai, Francisco) could be a mafia as well as they haven't played earlier.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:23:41


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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if it was two days later i'll tell you diplo, it's just that first i have nothing to prove myself, second if i have a good role the mafia might try to kill me.
third if i have a not important role then the mafia won't worry about me.

if i'm still alive in the next two days or someone has evidence against me i won't hesitate with my role.
Bandits: Mafia [DP1]: 11/2/2015 23:24:48


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 60
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*moves to mess with Colonel's hair*

*colonel gives me weird look*

*I do it anyway*

Edited 11/2/2015 23:25:05
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