Since no-one seems to be willing to bet real $$, lets just pretend we each have 1000$, and start some bets. I'll do a google sheet to reference all the bets and players. Advertise your propositions of bets here, being the less ambiguous possible, and with the odds.
Honestly? Between 25% and 30%. I don't know how many of his supporters will actually take time out of their day to go caucus for 2-3 hours in a small room. Plus I heard there was a snowstorm last night in Iowa (or this morning?) and studies show that lowers voter turnout.
Bet on the US presidential elections (free): 2/1/2016 21:45:59
why would you take the bet then? I think the snowstorm is going to be good for Trump and Bernie, since their voters seems to be very enthousiastic about voting for them, and therefore probably won't be held up by a snowstorm.
Bet on the US presidential elections (free): 2/1/2016 21:46:28
No but you see many Trump supporters have never caucused before...which is why I believe the storm and their general apathy will mean that the voter turnout for Trump will be lower than his actual poll numbers. Cruz and the other candidates have better organized campaigns and so their supporters will turnout in full force regardless of weather conditions. Also a lot of Trump supporters are younger, who historically don't engage in the primary. (Maybe I'm just praying instead of being logical...because if Trump gets more than 30% in Iowa, no candidate can beat him and I don't want him to win).
Edited 2/1/2016 21:48:32
Bet on the US presidential elections (free): 2/1/2016 21:51:07
just to be clear, i feel there might be a misunderstanding Jai. When i made the bet proposals, i meant that i was beting For the proposal, and whoever take the bet is betting Against the proposal. That's how you understood it right?
Bet on the US presidential elections (free): 2/1/2016 22:43:01