Since no-one seems to be willing to bet real $$, lets just pretend we each have 1000$, and start some bets. I'll do a google sheet to reference all the bets and players. Advertise your propositions of bets here, being the less ambiguous possible, and with the odds.



Google sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LK_g3-4sda24k5F6tnRG44RNUwtR3-9r5e-Nr1QxT8s/edit?usp=sharing

Edited 2/1/2016 22:00:29

I'll take Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire for $100.

done

is 100$ the amount you are betting,meaning you can lose 100$ - win 50$, or is it 100$ at 1 to 2 , meaning you stand to lose 200$ to win 100$?

$100 is the amount I am betting.

$500 on a Republican getting elected as POTUS
$500 on Bernie not winning

too high for me, max 50$, so it'd be 200$ for you on bernie and 150$ for the republicans. You sure you wanna bet this on only 2 bets? we've got till november...

Edited 2/1/2016 20:31:46

trump gets between 25% and 30% (included) of iowa votes: 2 to 3

Edited 2/1/2016 20:57:12

I'll take that bet too Hitchslap. I'll put $50 on it.

60$ ok? that way its 40/60

Sounds good!!

i wonder, do you think he is going to get more than 30% or less than 25%?

Honestly? Between 25% and 30%. I don't know how many of his supporters will actually take time out of their day to go caucus for 2-3 hours in a small room. Plus I heard there was a snowstorm last night in Iowa (or this morning?) and studies show that lowers voter turnout.

why would you take the bet then? I think the snowstorm is going to be good for Trump and Bernie, since their voters seems to be very enthousiastic about voting for them, and therefore probably won't be held up by a snowstorm.

I'll take your $50 on my bets for my $200 and $150

Bernie to get all states with 90% majority :D

No but you see many Trump supporters have never caucused before...which is why I believe the storm and their general apathy will mean that the voter turnout for Trump will be lower than his actual poll numbers. Cruz and the other candidates have better organized campaigns and so their supporters will turnout in full force regardless of weather conditions. Also a lot of Trump supporters are younger, who historically don't engage in the primary. (Maybe I'm just praying instead of being logical...because if Trump gets more than 30% in Iowa, no candidate can beat him and I don't want him to win).

Edited 2/1/2016 21:48:32

sry for the republican it me betting 150$ and you 50$, i mixed up the odds

oh ok. I still take it.

Also a lot of Trump supporters are younger, who historically don't engage in the primary.

I have a feeling the history won't repeat itself, young voters seem to be very much engaged in this election, especially for sanders and trump