Play
Multi-Player
Coins
Community
Settings
Help
Community   Maps   Forum   Mail   Ladders   Clans   Recent Games
Sign In | Sign Up
<< Back to Off-topic Forum   

Posts 1 - 21 of 21   
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 03:58:38


The Mad Japanese
Level 51
Report
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!

Clinton: 49.8

Sanders: 49.6
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 04:01:04


[AOE] JaiBharat909
Level 56
Report
SHE WON A PRECINCT BY A COIN TOSS!!


http://theweek.com/speedreads/602890/hillary-clinton-wins-iowa-precinct-by-coin-toss

How is that democratic lol??
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 04:34:13


The Mad Japanese
Level 51
Report
FAAAAK
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 04:37:23


FizzerYudoDisBB
Level 21
Report
EZ
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 04:40:12


Darth Darth Binks
Level 56
Report
Nigga what? That just makes me hate her even more.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 05:20:16


knyte 
Level 58
Report
It's one delegate out of over 2k for the national election. Caucuses are pretty weird, though.

Edited 2/2/2016 05:20:31
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 06:00:28

[wolf]japan77
Level 56
Report
Clinton has won 3 precinct delegates by coin toss to Sander's zero(This is still statistically valid), which count towards state delegates, which count towards the nomination. While it may be insignificant, it could possibly become important depending on where those precincts are located.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 06:02:53


knyte 
Level 58
Report
Odds are it's not going to flip the election since Clinton's leading by multiple state delegate equivalents; the coin flips only got her county delegates.

But the caucus system is all sorts of broken, as you can see here.

Fun fact: historically, whoever wins has a 57% chance of not being the nominee.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 06:10:35

[wolf]japan77
Level 56
Report
It's still interesting to watch though, and Clinton is not actually winning by multiple state delegate equivalents(it's .3% or .2%) when ignoring super delegates, which we probably should, as they have the right to change their vote.

Iowa and New Hampshire are important this election mostly due to the fact that if Sanders loses both, the momentum is gonna die, but win both, and we see another Obama-esque scenario on the horizon.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 06:17:38


knyte 
Level 58
Report
Let me clarify the terminology a bit:

There are something like 1.2k state delegate equivalents that are used by the Iowa caucuses rather than direct votes. Currently, Hillary is leading by 3 state delegate equivalents- or a 0.2% - 0.3% margin over Sanders. These are determined based on county delegates to some extent (they're the lowest level, right above the actual votes).

Right now, Hillary is getting one more national primary delegate than Sanders from this due to her lead by 3 state delegate equivalents. 3 county delegates would not have swung the caucus results unless the margin was significantly narrower.

It's a shame that coin tosses were involved, but blame that on the caucus format.

Another implication of this: We don't know who got the most actual votes in Iowa. We won't ever know, since it's just not reported. Hillary isn't winning by 0.3% of votes- she's winning by 0.3% of state delegate equivalents, which are two levels removed from actual votes. For all we know, she could be winning by a larger margin (likely due to polling) or Bernie could be ahead when it comes to actual votes, although of course they don't directly count here.

Edited 2/2/2016 06:19:06
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 06:44:33

[wolf]japan77
Level 56
Report
I agree to this statement, Both you and I failed at communicating the same idea(whoops!).

Well, I'm curious as to what will happen to O'malley's delegates, he currently has 8, which is enough to tip the balance, and if divided according to poll(2 Sanders:1 clinton), we could have a tie or Sanders victory.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 13:47:17


knyte 
Level 58
Report
Doesn't he just keep them? I mean, they're still delegates that were selected for him; even if he's suspending his campaign, at worst that puts him on the level of a write-in candidate, and those don't normally have to split their votes with their voters' second preference.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 13:56:20


Hitchslap
Level 56
Report
Hillary got 6 delegate by winning 6 coin flips in a row. That's a 1 in 64 chances..
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 13:57:27


Hitchslap
Level 56
Report
And she won by 3 delegates
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 15:06:41


[AOE] JaiBharat909
Level 56
Report
Doesn't he just keep them?

Well he suspended his race after the Caucus night so I don't think those delegates get redistributed. The bigger implication is 1) does O'Malley throw his support behind Clinton they were good friends before the election or does 2) O'Malley not give an endorsement and Bernie/Hillary going running after his votes (which by polls usually split 50-50)?
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 15:29:09


Darth Darth Binks
Level 56
Report
Iowa isn't that big a deal for Democrats, anyway. It's pretty white, tbh.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/2/2016 16:24:43


GeneralPE
Level 56
Report
6 coin tosses, she won them all. Pretty shady to me.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/3/2016 00:53:07

[WOLF]Andrew
Level 54
Report
They did coin tosses because in those precincts the two literally tied.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/3/2016 01:41:56


knyte 
Level 58
Report
@Hitchslap:

Hillary won 6 precinct delegates through coin flips.

The way Iowa works is:

- voters vote and precinct delegates are appointed to represent them

- precinct delegates vote for county delegates based on their precincts

- county delegates vote for district delegates based on their counties

- district delegates vote for state delegates based on their districts

- state delegates are the "votes" we actually see and used to determine national primary delegates

The coin flips happened at the precinct delegate level. Hillary won by 3 state delegates (3 levels away) and got 2 more national delegates (4 levels away) as a result.

The coin flips happened because they weren't important enough (even 6 of them) to change the outcome outside extremely odd scenarios.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/3/2016 03:15:54

[wolf]japan77
Level 56
Report
I don't believe it impacted them this time around, but someone please check.
Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat!: 2/3/2016 03:34:16


[AOE] JaiBharat909
Level 56
Report
Read this it should clarify things:

"There were two coin tosses in Des Moines and four more in Ames, Newton, West Branch and Davenport, the Des Moines Register reported. Clinton won all of these.

Another video, which the Des Moines Register did not report on, also emerged, showing a seventh coin toss in Johnson County. Sanders won what appears to be just this one.

Clinton reportedly won six out of the seven coin tosses. This assured her several more delegates to the Democratic Party’s county conventions, of which there are thousands that are selected from the state’s 1,681 precincts in order to determine who gets statewide delegate equivalents.

Clinton ultimately got 700.59 state delegate equivalents, while Sanders got 696.82 state delegate equivalents, a mere 3.77 point difference, according to the Iowa Democratic Party.

In other words, although six is a small fraction of the thousands of overall county delegates, these coin tosses — all of which Clinton reportedly won, despite the low probability — may have pushed her over the edge, giving her the extra statewide delegate equivalents that granted her an additional Iowa delegate.

Clinton ended up getting just one more Iowa delegate, with 22 to Sanders’ 21."

Source - http://www.salon.com/2016/02/02/critics_cry_foul_over_coingate_hillary_clinton_had_1_6_chance_of_winning_6_coin_tosses_that_made_her_winner_in_iowa/
Posts 1 - 21 of 21   

Contact | About WarLight | Play Risk Online | Multiplayer Strategy Game | Challenge Friends, Win Money | Skill Game | Terms of Service