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New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 20:41:34


Hitchslap
Level 56
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Can anyone explain me how it work please?
http://www.wmur.com/politics/2016-full-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-election-results/37649066

Why is Rand Paul getting votes? Why is there that many candidates? How come some results are already out?

Edited 2/9/2016 20:52:41
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 20:50:32


SirSalty
Level 49
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Who cares ?
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 20:51:49


Hitchslap
Level 56
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I
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 20:52:00


King Jofferey
Level 17
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1). Because democracy.
2). Because many people want to be Pres.
3). Because polling times are different for different counties.
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 21:03:58


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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~Go Bernie~
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 21:35:12


King Jofferey
Level 17
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~No Bernie~
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 21:43:19


[WOLF] The Conservative
Level 56
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Go Bernie ( only because if hes nominated he will demolish the democratic party and would hand the presidents office to a republican on a golden platter
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 21:45:09


OxTheAutist 
Level 58
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Lol, you're funny ^
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 21:51:21


knyte 
Level 58
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It's a primary. The American election system is first-past-the-post and takes place in November. This isn't an official government election but rather two elections run by the major political parties two figure out who they're going to have on their ticket.

Rand Paul probably already had enough signatures to get on the ballot for the New Hampshire GOP primary.
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 21:58:07


GeneralPE
Level 56
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I like Rand Paul :(
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 22:16:51


Major General Smedley Butler
Level 49
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Hopefully both parties collapse, they're both a bunch of rich ,Washington politicians who don't give a damn about the working people and love bombing places and sending soldiers to die.
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 23:09:18


MightySpeck (a Koala) 
Level 57
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... umm couldn't that be all countries? (if you change Washington)
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 23:12:45


[AOE] JaiBharat909
Level 56
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I'm pretty sure you can write in votes for the Primaries. Even if Rand Paul dropped out his supporters could still write in his name as their pick.

Plus in NH independents (those not part of the Republicans or Democrats) can vote in either part's race (but not both), so that creates a whole big problem when predicting the outcome.

Edited 2/9/2016 23:13:46
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 23:22:53


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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You underestimate bernie and the progressive wave in the US. If he beats clinton, he's got a win. The republicans can't win with cruz or trump.
New Hampshire elections: 2/9/2016 23:28:47


GeneralPE
Level 56
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pls. Trump would destroy him with states like NY and Ohio. Trump can bring over moderate Democrats; Bernie isn't getting any Republican votes.
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:05:48


Eklipse {TJC}
Level 56
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You underestimate bernie and the progressive wave in the US. If he beats clinton, he's got a win.

You underestimate anti-socialist sentiment in the U.S. If Bernie Sanders becomes the Democrat pick the Republican attack ads will practically write themselves. We'll see the red scare all over again as the Republicans build up Sanders as an evil or naive socialist.

To be clear, I'm not actually against Socialism, but you can't ignore that most Americans have a very negative reaction to even the word itself.
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:07:21


Hitchslap
Level 56
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@general PE
that was funny joke

Edited 2/10/2016 00:08:12
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:09:32


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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The word socialism has never been seen as favorably as now in the US. I guess sanders played a role on this... He's educating people in politics and has a lead of 10+ points against trump on national match-ups.

@General PE
NY will never vote for Trump, and sanders has a better apeal to independents then every other candidate. If Democrats and Republicans vote for their nominee, he has a win.
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:12:02


Hitchslap
Level 56
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i just found this: presidential candidates wealth list
http://www3.forbes.com/lists/forbes-2016-presidential-candidate-wealth-list/
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:16:25


Eklipse {TJC}
Level 56
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Neither Trump or Sanders has a very high chance of winning. They're both too far out on their respective ends of the political spectrum.

Sanders could only win if Trump was his opponent, against any other Republican he'd end up losing due to the still present fear of Socialism (Yes, it's not as bad as it once was, but it's still not something the majority of Americans like. Sanders isn't even full Socialist, but what matters is that he'll be painted as one and that image will damage his campaign).
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:18:31


knyte 
Level 58
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Trump and Sanders are the favorites to win NH, actually... (not much else, though)
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:19:44


Hitchslap
Level 56
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Sanders have won *almost* every match up poll against a Republican candidate, and by a lot. A lot more than Hillary actually. Just saying...

Edited 2/10/2016 00:25:00
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:20:32


Eklipse {TJC}
Level 56
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Trump was also favored to win Iowa, but that didn't happen.

The polls before Iowa were so off it's almost funny. I don't doubt that Bernie will likely take New Hampshire though.

@Hitchslap: Polls are not nearly as accurate as people credit them for. As Iowa and other past elections shown.

Edited 2/10/2016 00:21:52
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:26:55


knyte 
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@Eklipse: Iowa was a toss-up with Trump slightly more likely than his opponents to win, but it was too close to call. Trump has a 75% chance of winning NH and a 15% lead going in.

@Hitchslap: Yes, because Bernie hasn't been targeted by the Republicans yet. He's been more or less spared from most of the scrutiny that Clinton faces, because the GOP candidates are already treating Clinton as their general election opponent.
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:28:52


Hitchslap
Level 56
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Sure, but saying Bernie Sanders can't win the general election when some polls give him a 19 point lead in a general election matchup against Trump...come on

Polls don't mean much, especially that long before the election, but still you seem way too quick to dismiss him. This is what the media have been saying since the beginning of the election and Bernie Sanders have been rising ever since.

watch this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naby6bj3kJ8
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:33:48


knyte 
Level 58
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Yeah, these are super-early polls. We're still 9 months away from the actual election and 7-8 away from finding out who the general election candidates are.

I'm not quick to dismiss him; I'm literally only interested in the data this election, and he doesn't perform as well as you think he does. Sanders supporters have a very bad tendency to overreport their candidate's odds of winning- one told me after Iowa that Hillary's primary lead had dissipated (when it's 15-20% in most states).

The hypothetical general election polls right now are just junk data because most voters haven't thought that far yet and don't have enough information to know what they're going for. Feel free to build your Internet spam campaign around them, though

I hope you realize that a lot of the news you're getting exposed to comes from a certain /r/atheism-flavored chunk of the Internet that consistently over-reports the predominance of socialism, liberalism, atheism, conservative fundamentalism, etc., since that's the sort of news that gets attention in those parts.

Socialism is still wildly unpopular in all generations except for the Millennials (where it's still got a really high unfavorability rating hampering it); economically, the generations are also consistently on the middle when it comes to Bernie economics (wealth redistribution), so he's not even really able to ride a Millennial wave there.

We go through this every election cycle, man. It's kind of sad when people don't realize how badly their niche on the Internet skews their perception.

Edited 2/10/2016 00:36:44
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:35:49


Hitchslap
Level 56
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I agree that he is not likely to win the primaries, but if he was to win the primaries, i think he would do better against any republican than Hillary
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:37:55


[AOE] JaiBharat909
Level 56
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It won't matter who comes in first in NH.

Things to look out for:
1) How badly does Hillary get beat (if its 5% or less she'll actually be a winner considering how far back she was predicted a few weeks ago)?
2) Which establishment candidate competes with Trump (if Rubio doesn't make top 3 it could hurt his chances in South Carolina)?
3) Do Jeb, Christie, and Bush get enough support to continue in the race (Those that don't make it into the top 4 of NH may have to leave, although Bush has enough SuperPac money to continue for at least a month if he's smart with it)?
4) Does Ted Cruz keep himself relevant (he'll need at least 10-12% to keep his momentum from Iowa and not be completely forgotten, but NH does not bode well for him)?
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 00:45:33


knyte 
Level 58
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^

Basically, this (read the headlines on the simulations)

http://www.openprocessing.org/sketch/306571/embed/?width=900&height=350&border=true

Candidate-by-candidate:

GOP

Trump
+ wins with >35%
- narrowly wins with two other GOP candidates in the 20% range

Rubio
+ places in the top 3
- outdone by Bush or Christie

Cruz
+ gets more than 15% of the vote
- gets less than 10% of the vote

Christie
+ beat Rubio or Bush
- outdone by Rubio and Bush

Bush
+ places in the top 3
- gets less than 10% of the vote

Kasich
+ places in the top 5
- gets less than 10% of the vote

Fiorina
+ places in the top 5
- gets less than 8% of the vote

Carson
+ places in the top 5
- gets less than 8% of the vote

(All others)
+ place in top 5
- get less than 5% of the vote

Dems

Hillary:
+ able to poll above 45%
- polling below 42%

Sanders
+ wins with over 60%
- wins with less than 53%

Edited 2/10/2016 00:50:57
New Hampshire elections: 2/10/2016 01:01:05


Hitchslap
Level 56
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Here is the closest roll i could get according to what i think will happen
http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/714275prediction.png

Edited 2/10/2016 01:01:17
Posts 1 - 30 of 87   1  2  3  Next >>   

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