It happens to me too too often lately. I multiborder my enemy but instead of breaking his bonus I run into the territory where he put a stack into. And I don't choose options which seem advantageous at first sight.
Do you have any tips how to prevent this? Or is it something where I just have to bet and hope?

easy use a RNG.

wine in front of me

Is that so stupid question to get so stupid answers?
Sorry I am new here :P

I think "use a RNG" is not that bad.

You're opponent will be calculating complex strategies to try and trick you, or he'll be defending the biggest bonus.

A few years ago a player gave me one piece of advice that have proved to be invaluable. Think like a retard. It's the obvious moves that are often overlooked by your opponent as he'll expect you to try and be clever.

You want to usually hit the better territory without being completely predictable. You could do something like rolling a dice. If the outcome is 1 to 4 attack the better territory, else attack the worse

Edited 4/7/2016 10:44:21

wine in front of me is a legitimate answer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0

There are two ways I approach this. Either I try to use some quick and dirty game theory and going with the Nash Equilibrium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium) or if your goal is to only break his bonus you could number the the spaces, and use a random number generator to pick one. Than your opponent has no way to make an educated guess where to place his stack, and you can expect to break his bonus (1-(1/n))% of the time (where n = number of spaces you are bordering.)Ceteris Paribus. But that's just my 2 cents.

Edited 4/7/2016 17:33:31

Choose 1 for your stack, hit the others with 2

Edited 4/7/2016 17:32:02

Watch your opponent's deployment habits. Most people have a bit of pattern they stick to.

Once you see what it is, you can try to figure out a countermove. If your opponent spreads out his armies to cover all the bases, concentrate all your forces in one place. If your opponent likes to create a large force and barge through, make a few small attacks here and there, and one or two might get through.

Think like a retard.

This has won me a few games. I usually go for the worse strategically but less predictable option, but that loses a lot of games too. Knowing when to be unpredictable and when to be more predictable, but strategic is important. How to identify this? Depends on the position you are compared to your opponent.

Know the value of taking each territory over the other. In a 1v1 you can normally guess which one they will defend depending how important the territory is, and also how desperate their situation is. If you go into these situations with a stack, it normally changes this up as well.

Its partly knowing the playstyle of your enemy
and partly knowing the current situation. With that information you can usually predict fairly well.

If the player is completely unknown to you, it`ll be more dependend on:
1. Your knowledge of the map. There are usually territories that are attacked more frequently
2. The skill-level of the player you are facing. This can be based on his 1v1 ladder rating. If your enemy doesn`t have one, the best indicator will be the winrate.

Inconceivable

Know the value of taking each territory over the other. In a 1v1 you can normally guess which one they will defend depending how important the territory is

bullshit because wifom

Not always: sometimes you and your opponent have a very different view of the map (due to fog), and then it's not _inconceivable_ that you might know your opponent's priorities without him knowing yours. But otherwise, yeah.

I dunno what wifom (edit: but the penny dropped after I sent the comment :) ) is, but I think that calling advice from current No.1 in the world "bullshit" is daring at least :)

@Lolowut: Without context I had no chance to understand. Moreover, it looked like a typo at first sight ("wine" instead of "whine"), I am sorry for being so suspicious to you...

Thanks all for your responses. They really helped me to evaluate how to handle such situations in future (and no, I am not about to rolling dices).

Edited 4/7/2016 20:43:57

WIFOM explained:

You're a cop, and you're chasing a criminal. The criminal happens upon a fork in the road, there is a well-lit road and a dark road. The criminal takes a road. You're now at the fork in the road. Here's where it becomes circular logic:

The criminal has an advantage if he picks the dark road. There's a chance you could take the dark road and the criminal could still get away because the lack of lighting could throw you off of chasing him. However the criminal knows this, and he knows that you know this as well. So since he knows that you know the dark road is an advantage, it's quite obvious to pick the well-lit road! However, he could've thought this through and picked the dark road, thinking that you would think he would pick the well-lit road instead.

This thought process can continue on and on. The point here is MOST multi-bordering situations are this exact situation. There's a territory that gives a positional advantage AND breaks the bonus, and there's a territory that's less advantageous but still breaks the bonus. There is no right answer on how to handle this. You can say: Well study your opponent! They have tendencies. However, this could be the statistical anomaly game in which they do something against their tendencies. The information in the game is not useless, but the opponent has access to the same information.

Also: I would consider a game in which to win the game you need both positional advantage AND the bonus broken in order to yield an advantage not a WIFOM moment. If only 1 of the options gives you a direct advantage, then the circular logic game shouldn't be played.

Edited 4/7/2016 20:49:21

and no, I am not about to rolling dices

Then you are throwing away the only mathematical sound solution.