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Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 20:26:24


Angry Koala
Level 57
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The day for which many Brazilians have been waiting, some with gleeful anticipation, some others with apprehension or growing anger, has finally arrived. Discuss here your thoughts about this historical event.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 20:53:54


Жұқтыру
Level 55
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I don't know what you are talking about, but today there is a referendum on Italy on petrol digging, the earthquake's death toll has risen to 230+, Htin Kyaw pardoned 83 prisoners, there're protests in Skopye right now, and Rodrigo Duterte makes yet another unpolitic sentence. No news in Brazil, but in several others sites, there are interesting and weighty things going on.

Edited 4/17/2016 20:54:17
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 21:07:40


Angry Koala
Level 57
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I don't know what you are talking about, but today there is a referendum on Italy on petrol digging, the earthquake's death toll has risen to 230+, Htin Kyaw pardoned 83 prisoners, there're protests in Skopye right now, and Rodrigo Duterte makes yet another unpolitic sentence. No news in Brazil, but in several others sites, there are interesting and weighty things going on.



You know, I do not forbid you to post threads about these topics at all Juq.

If you do not even know what is going on in Brazil, not my fault at all, get news elsewhere.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 21:11:40


DomCobb
Level 45
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Today is a good sign for Brazil.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 21:12:10


Min34 
Level 58
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Are you talking about the Dilma Rousseff thing?
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 21:12:55


DomCobb
Level 45
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Yes.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 21:14:37


Angry Koala
Level 57
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yes the vote on the Brazil president's impeachment.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/17/2016 23:35:57


Carlos
Level 58
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We discovered here that there is no bottom to hit, you can always get worst. But yes, we can say we are in the bottom, or close
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 00:27:55


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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Let me leave my comment here and explain quickly what is going on.


The reason: The president has been accused of commiting a crime of responsability, which basically means
that the government spent much more then it was allowed by the budget and that she kept lying over and over about that.


Non official reasons: There's a lot of other reasons for this vote to take place, but mostly those are:
1) because 2/3 of the country are for the impeachment, and bc her popularity is Under 10%
2) because she tried to protect lula against investigation (our former president and her biggest ally) by nominating him to be a minister. This is far worse then the principal reason, but they decided not to include this in the vote so they could start the process earlier, as this nomination happened after the start of the process.
3) because there's a massive investigation against corruption on-going in the country, many of the members of congress are under investigation opposition and gvt alike, they believe that by taking away the president they may save themselves.
4) it is said that the campaign for election was filled with irregularities on financement.


Position of the government: They refuse the idea that the manipulation of public spending is a valid argument for impeachment under our constitution, and that what is going on is a coup. They also defend the idea that the process has been made too quickly without following all of the processus correctly. A consequence of the impeachment will be the power transfer from the PT ("left wing", but not really) to the PMDB (center-right) because the vp is from another party; the defenders of the government say that they are worse, and truth be said, they probably are.


What will happen: The vote will very likely pass on the lower chamber of parliament by the 2/3rds needed and then by the 1/2 needed on the senate. After that the president is taken out of office for 180 days, further investigations will go on and then a final vote on the senate occur, if 2/3rds approve it, the president is taken out for good.


My position: I consider myself of centre left, and I'd defend the party on power if they weren't fucked up as they are. Their first years in power weren't bad for the country, and Brazil's left was considered a success by many left parties on the world, but the truth is that they were corrupt since the beginning, and got more greedy every year that passed, pillaging the country and sharing the spoils with other parties in congress that accepted to follow them.

I agree with some points of the government, the PMDB is worse then the PT, and this process under only the crime of responsability is probably too weak to pass. However the fact that the president decided to give a minister position to our former president in order to protect him from justice is absurd, and this fact is overly ignored by the governists, when it's clearly one of the worse crimes they commited.

I then support this impeachment, even if I think it could be better, it's the best for the country. I think the PMDB can't do worse then the gvt for now simply because they won't have political capital to do any shitty thing like giving the right for religious entities to put in question decisions of the supreme court (seriously, that bill was sponsored by many PMDB congressmen). The economy will probably go better without the current gvt with investors and consumers confidence rising, and someone being finally punished by the suffering of the country.


Sorry for that huge speech, but it's probably gonna help some to understand the situation. A good vid that explains it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFKsY5O7oYs
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 03:41:12

Semicedevine
Level 59
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actually read all that : its pretty interesting

y'all mothaphuukers need JESUS
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 07:19:22


adrian waco
Level 25
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is it going to be impeached in ur opinion?
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 16:24:13


Maggie De Block
Level 19
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I should be running for president of Brazil ...

Edited 4/18/2016 16:25:29
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 17:36:43


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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Yea, she's probably gonna get impeached. I'd say it's a 95% chance that she gets taken away from office for 180 days, and then it's a 60-70% chance she gets removed permanently after that.

The reason why is because the first vote requires a simple majority, the opposition already has way more then needed for it to pass on the senate. Then for the 2/3rds, they don't have enough yet, but they don't need to care about it until october.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 20:16:20


Angry Koala
Level 57
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Well it is indeed more likely she is going to get impeached, but who would be nominated as head of state instead of her?

The main problem is that there is no quick fix going forward... The impeachment motion now will go to the Senate. If it is approved there, Rousseff would have to step down for 6 months to defend herself against accusations. Then, she would be replaced by Vice President Michel Temer, whose party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party has also been implicated in the corruption scheme, and could be further weakened by the ongoing investigation... A non ending story.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 20:53:29


Zephyrum 
Level 60
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She was already voted out for 180 days, TeamGuns.

will be the power transfer from the PT ("left wing", but not really)


Eh... They are left-wing, like it or not. Nor Lula nor Dilma are morally or economically right-wing; one may claim they aren't entirely left, but they're definetely leaned there way more than they are leaned towards the right-wing.

I then support this impeachment, even if I think it could be better, it's the best for the country. I think the PMDB can't do worse then the gvt for now simply because they won't have political capital to do any shitty thing like giving the right for religious entities to put in question decisions of the supreme court (seriously, that bill was sponsored by many PMDB congressmen). The economy will probably go better without the current gvt with investors and consumers confidence rising, and someone being finally punished by the suffering of the country.


I'm with you almost entirely here. The PMDB is a truly neutral party; it's not left or right, it leans towards whoever is more powerful now. To be fair, I don't think I'd trust any congressman we have right now to lead (they're either corrupt to the fucking core, or just generally stupid (like Dilma herself, or Bolsonaro, our "Trump").

If you ask me, I'd say we had to learn something from 1933 and set the congress on fire with everyone inside during the impeachment session. Would be good on the long run. Sadly, as such option is not present, we should just keep pushing for the removal of the whole presidential sucessory line (Temer now, then Calheiros, then Cunha) before it's too late.

TL;DR we have finished the first out of four impeachments required for us to have a chance to succeed.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 21:01:45


Angry Koala
Level 57
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The PMDB is a truly neutral party


No party is neutral, I do not want to ruin your expectations though.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 21:06:15


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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She was already voted out for 180 days, TeamGuns.


Negative, the vote hasn't even begun on the senate yet.


Eh... They are left-wing, like it or not. Nor Lula nor Dilma are morally or economically right-wing; one may claim they aren't entirely left, but they're definetely leaned there way more than they are leaned towards the right-wing.


We can say that they were left-wing, they hardly are anymore. Lula was an extreme left militant in the 80s. Dilma and her gvt has run into a close to a neo-liberal agenda they criticized during the elections of 2014, by cutting social spending, raising the interest rates as well as other things.



The sad truth is that I doubt there will be any more impeachment votes lol. No way congress will impeach Temer. I would hope we have new elections, but even those are uncertain. One of those stupid congressmen could be elected, Bolsonaro for instance isn't polling too badly :(


======


Edit: @Angry Koala

The PMDB isn't too far from the republican party in the US for real. They sell their souls to whoever pay the most, and inside the party there's some really nuts people with a few sane people.

They've allied with the PT for 13 years already, and they were allied to the PSDB (opposition) before. They always want that sweet gvt money to run in. They're not too far from the PT really...

Edited 4/18/2016 21:09:06
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 21:49:36


Zephyrum 
Level 60
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Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 21:50:39


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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^ Yea, that sums it up well... The PMDB is the weirdo that is judging the contest :D

Edited 4/18/2016 21:51:06
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/18/2016 21:53:54


Angry Koala
Level 57
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great Gif Zeph I guess this illustrates the best way possible the current situation in Brazil.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/19/2016 00:50:33


Zephyrum 
Level 60
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Fun fact: Dollar to BRL ratio fell down a small chunk after the impeachment vote.

In dollars:reais:
Before: 3.85:1
After: 3.55:1
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/19/2016 03:13:31


adrian waco
Level 25
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hows the stock market doing
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/19/2016 10:24:57


Angry Koala
Level 57
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What about the Olympic Games this year? Aren't they in Rio? It is really bizarre but I did not heard anything about this particular event...
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 21:27:28


Angry Koala
Level 57
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bumpão
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 21:43:28


Zephyrum 
Level 60
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It's going to continue, nobody's gonna change that. We don't fuck with international events.

Can't speak for ISIL, though, which is sending a couple threats in our way recently.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 21:45:34


Angry Frog
Level 7
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Brazil needs to improve its HDI.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 21:47:07


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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About stock exchanges and the dollar/real ratio, everytime Dilma gets closer to leave power, the market and the ratio do better...

That's how bad market confidence is on the PT lol.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 21:50:45


Angry Koala
Level 57
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Olympic Games is a step higher than Football World Cup, so this is quite weird we do not hear at all about this event which is going to be held in Brazil.

As for ISIL I do not believe Brazil is a target, it is more likely Europe will be the main target again alongside the US, and as you may know, the UEFA competition is organized in France this summer.
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 22:10:05


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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^Neh, I'm pretty sure organizing the world cup was more expensive. The olympics are easier to do, it's all in one city for instance...
Did Brazil hit the bottom?: 4/20/2016 22:14:33


Angry Koala
Level 57
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More expensive in a Brazilian context (since they always favoured football more than any other sports), but if you compare for example Chinese spending it is clearly not the same thing. And at the end, Olympic Games are a more prestigious event than the Football World Cup.
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