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Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 05:13:42


Pushover 
Level 59
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Special thanks to Chokecherry for starting this league and Frankdeslimste for continuing it. Starting this season, I'm the third administrator of this league!

There will be a few minor changes this season.

1. Tiebreaker tournaments are back! A tiebreaker tournament will be made (time permitting) for all players who are tied in both the group and head to head.

(Edit: The following tiebreaker was changed from what I originally had, so please re-read!)
2. If players are still tied after the tiebreaker tournament, or a tiebreaker tournament is not made, I will be employing a new tiebreaker: ratios of Fizzer's metric. Fizzer's metric is calculated in the final turn of the game, and is equal to a player's controlled armies plus income times 2 (A + 2*I). The ratio then is the metric for one player divided by the sum of metrics for both players. I will cap the metric to be a minimum of 0.51 for the winner and a maximum of 0.49 for the loser. The tie will then be broken according to the sum of ratios of Fizzer's metric among games involved in the tie.

3. Booting in any three games will mark you as inactive, and you will be removed from the league. This is a change from the prior rule which required boots in the last three games played for a player to be removed.

Here are the tournaments for Season 19

Group A: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18648
Group B: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18649
Group B Third Place Tiebreaker: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=20085
Group C: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18650
Group D: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18651
Group E: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18652
Group F: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18653
Group G: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18654
Group H: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18655
Group I: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18656
Group I First Place Tiebreaker: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19617
Group J: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18657
Group K1: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18658
Group K2: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18659
Group K3: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18660
Group K4: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=18661

There is still some room in the newbie groups. For the moment I'll accept 4 new players. Any others will be wait-listed - added to one of the newbie groups if other players don't join in a timely matter. If you want to join, please reply to the thread and not private message me. Private messages will not count when determining order of joining players! This makes things a lot easier for me.

I plan to start all groups on the weekend of April 30 & May 1. Players who don't join by then will get a warning message. All players who fail to join before Saturday May 7 risk being dropped from the league.

Edited 8/10/2016 08:30:59
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 05:18:25


Pushover 
Level 59
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Concept

The Promotion/Relegation League is a seasonal group of round-robin Warlight tournaments, always on the classic “strategic middle earth” map and settings. Players are grouped into small groups (7 on average). At the end of each season, the top players of each group are promoted to the next group above. Bottom players are relegated to the next group below. Middle players remain in the same group.

The league is meant to appeal to players who want to see, over the course of several seasons, where their natural level of competition might take them. For new, skilled participants, this means patience in getting to the levels where they will be challenged. Hopefully, that is part of the fun. The idea is to see how quickly you can progress, how long you can stay high, or how long it takes to stop a skid.

Rules

The league is run with a balance of predictability and flexibility. Final decisions are made by the league administrator with an attempt to consider input of league players.

Currently, the model is to typically have the top two promote and the bottom two relegate but there are exceptions. Where there is default – a player becoming inactive or asking to bow out of the league – there can be more promotions to fill in the vacancy. Where this happens in several groups there can be a lot of shuffling. The principle, though, is to usually have at least one player from each group relegated. Several retirements mean fewer relegations and more super-promotions to keep the groups filled.

Any player inactive in any three games of any tournament is deemed to be out of the league and can only return as a new player in an expansion or bottom group.

Placements in a round-robin are determined by number of wins. In the event of a tie, placements are determined by head-to-head results among the tied. Occasionally, there are loops of ties that cannot be resolved by the head-to-head rule. A tie-breaking tournament then takes place unless all the players involved agree to otherwise settle the tie.

(Edit: The following tiebreaker was changed from what I originally had, so please re-read!)
If players are still tied after the tiebreaker tournament, or a tiebreaker tournament is not made, ratios of Fizzer's metric will be used to break the tie. Fizzer's metric is calculated in the final turn of the game, and is equal to a player's controlled armies plus income times two (A + 2*I). The ratio then is the metric for one player divided by the sum of metrics for both players. I will cap the metric to be a minimum of 0.51 for the winner and a maximum of 0.49 for the loser. The tie will then be broken according to the sum of ratios of Fizzer's metric among games involved in the tie. (If still tied, I will disregard the 0.51/0.49 limits)

Anyone can join the league, members and non-members alike, simply by request in the most recent “Promotion/Relegation League” forum thread. New players begin in the bottom group or in an expansion group. Promotions from expansion groups depend on numbers within the new groups.

Before the beginning of each season, a summary of the movements will be announced to allow for questions or corrections. The league works most smoothly if those who wish to bow out of it let the administrator know before the new season begins instead of simply declining to play after the groups have been determined and tournaments begun.

The history of the last season can be reviewed from links in the season 18 thread:

https://www.warlight.net/Forum/130085-promotionrelegation-league-season-18

Edited 4/28/2016 03:16:17
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 05:24:50


Pushover 
Level 59
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List of Promotion Relegation League Winners

*Season 1 had 3 equal groups*

Season 1
Dunga http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=2151
Frankdeslimste http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=2155
TexasJohn http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=2154

Season 2
Dunga http://WarLight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=2295

Season 3
Dunga http://WarLight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=2631

Season 4
Dunga http://WarLight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=2935

Season 5
HHH http://WarLight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?TournamentID=3180

Season 6
Frankdeslimste http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=3500

Season 7
Frankdeslimste http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=4042

Season 8
Ruthless Bastard http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=4484

Season 9
Ruthless Bastard http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=4969

Season 10
dreuj http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=6070

Season 11
dreuj http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=7424

Season 12
grona http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=9076

Season 13
grona http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=10348

Season 14 - A Five Way Tie!
Frankdeslimste, Miyagi, Grona, Ineffable, Timon92
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?TournamentID=11631

Season 15
Tenshi https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=13085

Season 16
timon92 https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=14279

Season 17
Krzychu https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=15408

Season 18
timon92 https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=17073


Hall of Fame (omitting shared titles):
Dunga - 3
timon92 - 2
grona - 2
dreuj - 2
Ruthless Bastard - 2
Frankdeslimste - 2
Krzychu - 1
Tenshi - 1
Heyheuhei - 1
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 05:35:01


Pushover 
Level 59
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To those who are interested, this is how the promotions and relegations from last season went.

GROUP A
timon92
FlyingBender
grona • apex
Krzychu
Mirror
Timinator (from B)
rocky1 (from B)

GROUP B
Jefferspin (from A)
Falker (from A)
Master Bjarke
Pushover
Master Turtle
Master of the Dead (from C)
Beren • apex (from C)

GROUP C
his balls. (from B)
Verzehrer
Metatron
Maréchal Lannes, duc de Montebello
JV (from D)
Ollie (from D)
master of desaster (from E)

GROUP D
Frankdeslimste • apex (from C)
ChrisCMU
Bigchps147
Master Atom
smileyleg {TJC} (from E)
Andersault (from E)
<SNinja> almosttricky (from F)

GROUP E
Don (from D)
Polakillo
ferede
Oh Noes (from F)
Wenyun (from F)
Great Expanse (from G)
MightySpeck (a Koala) (from G)

GROUP F
Stormers
butterfly94 (from G)
Hades (from H)
Buns157 (from H)
USA Biches (from H)
+SAM+ (from I)
Hostile (from I)
Arkanton (from J)

GROUP G
bobbob000
awesomeusername (from H)
indibob (from I)
Ryzys (from J)
Platinum (from K1)
Sultan Kosmitów (from K2)
Min34 (from K3)
Dom365 (from K4)

GROUP H
Benjamin628
Des {TJC} (from J)
ipg (from J)
Fleecemaster (from J)
dodo comander (from K1)
Tony Sodano (from K2)
Turkish (from K3)
Master Jz (from K4)

GROUP I
[WOLF] Colonel H Cardwell
Gaspsian (from K1)
Aura Guardian (from K1)
mslasm (from K2)
Onoma94 (from K2)
Cata Cauda (from K2)
PhucilliJerry (from K3)
Prabster Realm (from K4)

GROUP J
O Cat Juggernaut (Tom's Guardian Angel)
Gustave II (from K1)
AyushTheGreat (from K1)
[wolf]japan77 (from K2)
kirdol (from K3)
ThePop(P)e_(o)(o) (from K3)
tojam2 (from K4)

Groups K1-K4 were randomly decided among 24 active players using random.org's List Randomizer feature.

Special thanks to Min34 for helping me sort the groups and new players!
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 08:37:53


timon92 
Level 62
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I don't get the kill ratio thing.
A kill ratio is the ratio of enemy armies killed to own armies killed.
Do armies killed by neutrals count? I mean, is the kill ratio equal to
(enemy armies killed by me and neutrals)/(my armies killed by my enemy and neutrals)
or
(enemy armies killed by me)/(my armies killed by my enemy)
?
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 12:46:10

Krzysztof 
Level 65
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Thx for continuing it PO(and anyone who helps you)
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 14:10:36


Math Wolf 
Level 62
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Can I join, either this season or the next?
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 14:18:37

Arni
Level 56
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Same for me?
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 14:34:48


Pushover 
Level 59
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@ timon92: great questions. Let me explain in this post. If there are problems with this tiebreaker we can come up with a different one.

Please note that kill ratios are effectively a backup for when ties can't be broken by normal means.

The original explanation that Lord Syvedyas gave me, which can also be found here: https://www.warlight.net/Forum/30139-promotionrelegation-league-season-12?Offset=40

Say three players are at tie for all the other points, then we look at the three games those players have played between them and average for all of them the kill ratios.
Kill ratio meaning: (Armies you have killed of the opponent) / (Armies your opponent killed from you)
Neutral kills will be disregarded.
Example:
GameXvY.|.X.kill.|.Y.kill..
A vs B........50.......60.. (won by B)
B vs C........30.......40.. (won by C)
A vs C........80.......70.. (won by A)

Then the kill ratios are:
A: ((50/60)+(80/70))/2 = 0,988
B: ((60/50)+(30/40))/2 = 0,975
C: ((40/30)+(70/80))/2 = 1,104

So C would win with A in second place.
For those who dont like math: B is last place because his loss against C was quite a bit more severe than his win against A, while the game A vs C was a close one.


I will use this game as an example: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10790157

Kill ratios can be found in the Statistics menu of completed games. Please see the following screenshots.

Total armies killed (primary tiebreaker):


So in this case, the winner, Oh Noes, has a kill ratio of 23/26 = 0.885. The loser, Beren, has 26/23 = 1.130. So... immediately I already see an issue with this! Clearly the winner had the loser beat badly, but this isn't at all reflected in the kill ratios.

Armies killed while attacking (used only when primary tiebreaker fails):


This more clearly shows what's going on in the game. As the winner has killed 23 on offense and the loser has killed only 4 on offense.

So.... I'll take further look at this tiebreaker and modify it. Chances are I'll probably only use armies killed on offense, and i will probably use (# armies killed on offense / total armies killed on offense by both players) as the metric instead of what is listed.

Any other tiebreaker suggestions are welcome! Please state them in the thread to be considered.

Edited 4/26/2016 14:37:20
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 14:44:10


Pushover 
Level 59
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Math Wolf, Arni, and 13CHRIS37 (from PM request) have been added. I'll add one more, then further new players will be waitlisted.

From now on, PMs to me won't count for joining. Please reply to this thread.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 14:54:26


Math Wolf 
Level 62
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@Pushover: ratio of armies controlled averaged over all turns of a game may be a good one? If a game stays close for a long time, the ratio is closer to 1. This obviously takes into account the number of armies killed by the opponent, but also (efficient) expansion and cards.

Games are won for 2 reasons: (1) having more income than the opponent (2) having more armies on the board than the opponent.
Both of course influence each other.
Killing more armies of your opponent does give you an immediate advantage in (2), but not necessarily in (1), which in turn could lead to a disadvantage in (2).
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 15:02:37


Pushover 
Level 59
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I agree that armies controlled is quite a bit better. Taking the average over all turns is more robust than any particular turn, but will be annoying to calculate. But I suppose such is the price of league admin -_-

From the example game:


I won't be able to spend much more attention on this until Wednesday night. But I am leaning towards Math Wolf's suggestion.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 15:23:55


Beren • apex 
Level 62
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I won that game, not Oh Noes :P
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 15:53:42

[NL] bassoonplayer
Level 53
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I'm interested to join as the fourth new player
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 17:33:45


tomjh
Level 55
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Beren is right, looks like kill rate is back on the cards.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 18:18:55


timon92 
Level 62
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ratio of armies controlled averaged over all turns of a game may be a good one?
I don't like this one either - a player can have better ratio despite losing, especially in close low-income games. I dug up some examples:
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4257446
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4333886
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5183340
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5628414

The only fair way to break ties is to make tiebreaker tournaments as long as needed.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 20:57:22


Wenyun 
Level 59
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GROUP E
Wenyun (from F)


Holy crap. I haven't promoted for a long time.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 21:14:19


Hades
Level 62
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When I won group H I was so happy I'd got rid of buns for a while... This happiness is now gone, and I am empty inside.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 22:05:13

Mike
Level 57
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So promotion from K4 goes to J or to K3 ? If it goes to K3 couldnt you use something else than random to arrange those groups ? Like order of registration in the league ? Anyway nevermind, it will be a good practice on WR and if anything goes wrong, I cant go down lol.

Just, how did MOD join group C from E for example ? Or I'm missing something.

Edited 4/26/2016 22:05:54
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/26/2016 22:14:18


Timinator 
Level 62
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I think you're confused by the fact last season had 4 bottom groups (K1-K4) and this season has 4 bottom groups (K1-K4) aswell. Blame the dropouts :)
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 09:13:39


Pushover 
Level 59
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bassoon player added to group K4. all other new players will be waitlisted.

@timon92: I agree that tiebreaker tournaments are the best tiebreaker, but I will not grossly postpone the entire league for a single tiebreaker tournament. Therefore, to decide promotions and relegations under extreme circumstances, something ought to be used as a last resort. Under Chokecherry, average turn speed was used. I think we can so something a little better than that. Keep in mind that tiebreaker tournaments are the first recourse of a deadlocked tie!

The example games you provide show close, come from behind victories. The idea of the tiebreaker is that close victories count less than blowouts. I will calculate the numbers later to get an idea of what we are dealing with. But perhaps using army ratios of the final turn only would be good enough? Again, I'm trying to come up with a tiebreaker that will be marginally good enough to break ties for promotion and relegation purposes, as a backup to proper tie breaking, to avoid the situations that occurred under Frank's administration.

@Mike, all the K groups last season and this season are filled with newbies and therefore have no rank vs each other. Therefore I have to treat them as equally as possible, and I have to heuristically decide who promotes where. Super-promotions were heavy due to dropouts. If you are a good player, you will eventually filter up the groups. The alternative to having newbie groups of equal rank is to either arbitrarily rank players who have not played this league before (which is unfair to players who are not known to me) or tell 3/4 of the new players that they can't play this season.

As to super promotions, there are currently eleven tiers to the league. Eleven!! So the super promotions are designed to allow good players at the bottom to more quickly filter up the ranks to fill spots left open by vacating players if they do well enough. A player dropped from the league in group B opened up an extra slot in group C. The top two players from D are promoted. The third slot should either go to 3rd place D or 1st place E. Frank prefers the following sort of order: 1st D, 2nd D, 1st E, 3rd D, 2nd E. In cases where there are LOTS of dropouts, I try to make sure that either the bottom player in a group relegates or at least doesn't promote. Then I try to prioritize promotions for winning records. But in the end the slots need to get filled. This is why everyone in the lower groups got promoted so much.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 11:01:20


timon92 
Level 62
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The idea of the tiebreaker is that close victories count less than blowouts.
I agree. However, the problem with proposed tiebreaker is that quite often a loss is worth more than a win.
But perhaps using army ratios of the final turn only would be good enough?
It certainly would be much better, maybe somehow combined with income ratio?
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 11:59:11


Math Wolf 
Level 62
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You could simply take the ratio of Fizzer's formula to determine seasonal winners.
That is: armies on board + 2*income (see https://www.warlight.net/wiki/Seasonal_ladder ).

This would also promote not dragging out games too much which is always a good thing, I'd say.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 12:34:42


Beren • apex 
Level 62
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Another benefit to Math Wolf's formula is that it is easier to calculate. You don't have to mess around with the stats window. Reducing the overhead for the organiser is definitely a good thing.
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 16:30:22

Mike
Level 57
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Im not too crazy about the super promotion. In your example, the guye from E should go in D and an extra guy from E should go to D to fill the room left by an extra guy from C replacing the dropout from B. Because there s no guarantee top player of E is better than everyone in D and his super rpomotion to C could therefore be unfair. Now you are in charge so you can change rules that make more sense :-)). But nvm.

Edited 4/27/2016 16:31:00
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 17:33:59

rouxburg
Level 59
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Well, i can't see myself in the tournament even though you told me i was in pushover?
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 19:30:48


Min34 
Level 58
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@Rouxburg, how did you contact Pushover?

I checked the players for this season. You didn`t participate last season, nor wrote in the season 18 thread that you wanted to join. (https://www.warlight.net/Forum/130085-promotionrelegation-league-season-18?Offset=180)

If you contacted Pushover by any other means (PM, Skype, game chat) then I couldn`t have known. If that is the case, then my apologies. We (and when I say we, I mean Pushover) will see what we can do.

EDIT: I think I know what when wrong. You have signed up to WSOW (https://www.warlight.net/Forum/147689-wsow-season-3-rules-call-participants?Offset=60). Pushover has confirmed your participation there, and you`ll be in once it starts.

This thread on the other hand is for the Promotion/Relegation League. It would seem you have to two confused (they are both run by Pushover)

Edited 4/27/2016 19:38:03
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 19:36:59


Buns157 
Level 66
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Maybe he is getting mixed up with the other thing pushover is now running, wsow?
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 19:38:43


Min34 
Level 58
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Buns posted as I was editing. Seems most likely indeed ^^
Promotion/Relegation League Season 19: 4/27/2016 20:07:08

rouxburg
Level 59
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@Min34, ah thanks for going over all of that. i thought they were the same thing because of pushover.
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