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ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 4/30/2016 17:22:02


Medium Rare
Level 28
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Noob, so I'm watching the best to learn, but I'd like to hear what the pros think. In the game posted below, it seems ACL should have attacked Nigeria with 90.

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10673217

The worst-case scenario for ACL is that Buns attacks to the north and gets to Europe in two turns. There is nothing he can do to stop this, even maxing his deployment in Spain for two turns, having played his blockade (strangely?) in turn 3. But, at best, Buns is five turns from cracking ACL's next bonus, which, notably, they both know from the early turns. Perhaps this is why Buns makes the (defensive?) move that he does in turn 12. More on that below.

ACL also has first order and an Order Priority Card. ACL can also see that Buns is not in Africa and that his best/only chance to crack a bonus is in South America, where he knows Buns is. Further, with luck, he could crack two of Buns' bonuses within a crucial four turns. So if he attacks Nigeria with 90, his next-to-worst outcome is that Buns deploys 35 to Nigeria, then attacks him with 50 from behind, leaving him with 35, but he could not be stopped from taking Brazil in turn 13 (I think, since I am not sure about the reinforcements, but will analyze that next). His worst outcome would be if Buns had stacked 35 preemptively in Brazil and attacked Nigeria with 50, leaving ACL unable to take Brazil next turn, or, at least not definitely.

As it turned out, Buns ordered the best possible outcome for this hypothetical scenario. ACL would have been left with 48 units in Nigeria, and could not be stopped from taking Brazil. Too, he now has a weakened army behind him, and Buns is still two turns from Europe. So who made the mistake, if any? Or both?

I know both players are engaged in double-, triple-, and quadruple-think. Also, they both know the game and each other much better than I do. I have tried not to use any benefit of hindsight, as ACL could make a reasonable guess at Buns' resources.

I definitely learned one thing from this game. I have been watching these high-level games and wondering, "How the hell do these wizards know to surrender so quickly?" Then, on a whim, I looked at the chat... Lord.
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 4/30/2016 20:52:38


Buns157 
Level 66
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I didnt think about it much, I was pretty sure I won by that point fro just from being able to expand. So went for the safe thing of defending or/and hopefully killing some of his armies.
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 4/30/2016 21:24:47


Wally Balls 
Level 58
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I agree that Nigeria was the play. I didn't catch move order and order priority cards though. It's possible he thought Buns would be able to get there first and didn't do it for that reason. He also should have taken Niger in Turn 8 with 3/4/5 armies or something.

I thought the way Buns expanded was sub-optimal. Like not taking Hawaii until Turn 11 was really risky. And he should have gotten to Spain ASAP as that was clearly where they were going to meet.

Edited 4/30/2016 21:51:23
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 4/30/2016 22:47:48


Hades
Level 62
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Buns knew where he was though, why would he need to take hawaii when he knows the only way for ACL to get to hawaii is through very long wastelanded bonuses
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 5/1/2016 01:58:57

Semicedevine
Level 59
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^

yea he probably knew based on how ACL deployed his entire income on his border turn 3, not that hard to figure out his possible picks at that point

Edited 5/1/2016 05:11:23
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 5/1/2016 02:04:48

Semicedevine
Level 59
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I legitimately think that ACL may have misclicked to make that mistake on turn 12 lel

he had first order that turn... um...

my guess is he thought Buns was gonna deploy his whole income to defend Nigeria, which gives him the chance to destroy Bun's other stack in Niger since it would be weak by itself then

and I think he attacked first order because he was afraid Buns would try to flank him through either Algeria or Libya
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 5/1/2016 02:32:38


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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Not taking hawaii isn't a mistake at all. Acl need to make a journey to reach it lol... I didn't check move orders or cards, but with my humble opinion I disagree with ACL move there, he needed to go for buns income at that point. For Buns it's an ok move, considering he has the income advantage, he better defend his income and just take off the stack 2-3 turns later if acl don't attack.
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 5/1/2016 04:19:36


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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No fog is so unstrategic, plus I doubt anyone will want to watch this game... They can always do it after the game is done anyways.
ACL Tears v Buns157: Turn 12 Mistake? (Ladder): 5/1/2016 09:08:24


Wally Balls 
Level 58
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he knows the only way for ACL to get to hawaii is through very long wastelanded bonuses


If he 100% knew where he was then I take that back, I didn't map it out but I thought it wasn't clear where all of ACL's bases were.

Still think he should have gone quicker to Spain and the general way he expanded was sub-optimal.
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