The picks are just bad...
Picking is the most important phase of the game, screw up here and against good players the game is already over, against bad players it's just complicating your life too much for nothing. There isn't a base formula for picking, but when you're choosing picks, try to go for 3 major things:
you really wanna have at least one bonus you can expand off ory ou can also go for countering your opponent's income when you're sure he's gonna be in one area. Sometimes you can do both with your reserve picks.
you don't wanna leave any large rich bonus area free for your opponent to expand
- Fast income:
you really wanna avoid not having a single bonus after 2 turns
Follow these rules every time, and you'll probably do ok in other games. It's hard to learn how to pick, but with enough training, you can improve and make your games end before any army has been deployed.
On this board, we have 3 major rich areas, Northern America, Asia and Africa-Antartica:http://prntscr.com/b66g7r
Bc northern america is inefficient, you can pass on covering that region. So you're left with 2 areas that need coverage: africa and asia.
Antartica is simply amazing here, it's a safe pick with south america and australia blockaded, and the warlord faces Africa which means it can be used to cover the africa rich area and as a plus, AA is a fast bonus, you can get it in 2 turns with a deploy of only 5. So antartica is definetly your 1 here.
Scandinavia is a cool 2 here, because it's also a safe quick bonus, even if it doesn't cover any major area, it's fine as a 2. And if you get your 1 and your 2, you can go for an amazing 11 by the end of turn 2.
Then you wanna move to asia, I think that east russia is a solid 3 here. If you miss your 1 or 2, you can go for the bonus and get 10 income turn 2. If you get 123, you can get your 11 in turn 2, and get East Russia the next turn (just be sure to be able to attack every province of the bonus by then), you're then at 16 at the end of turn 3, which isn't bad.
You put a 4 in asia, bc you really wanna be sure to have a pick there, you can either go for indonesia or east china at this point. It depends on your preference, indonesia offers a bonus that is a bit safer, but east china gives a good counter for the asian region. I'd personally probably go for East China.
For your 5th pick, Eastern-US works well, it's a safe pick that gives you options in case you miss one of your picks in the 3 bonuses and one in asia.
For your 6th pick, you want to go for a counter in Asia. because it's impossible to get both your 4th and your 6th pick (or your 5th and your 6th too btw), you can put this last pick in western china and use it to counter East China if needed, or move to eastern russia if you need to as well.
So, my picks so far are:
3: Eastern Russia
4: East China
5: East US
6: West China
Let's see at the outcomes of these picks:
123 => Potential 16 income after 3 turns
124 => Potential 15 income after 3 turns, and intel in East Russia, counterable by china.
125 => Potential 11 income after 2 turns, E-US can be taken in turn 4 while you start moving to africa or europe. You lose all of asia, but you cover 2 major rich areas and you have a fast income.
126 => Best outcome possible, you have 11 income in 2 turns, and you counter his asian positions. He only has East-US safe income, you can expand to africa and europe.
134 or 234 => Potential 10 income after 2 turns, and then you can either take antartica/scand or the east china bonus in turn 3.
135 or 235 => Potential 13 income after 3 turns, you know that you have an opponent in asia (so go for east-us) and you know where his fast bonus is.
236 => another good outcome, you can get your 11 in 2 turns, and your sixt pick just crushes asia. You can then move late game to clean northern america.
I think it's all covered, I won't watch the hole game to see how it plays out, but I hope that picking tips helped you.