Phew, we're officially safe! :D

Thank you for all these updates, Memele!

Interesting update. Considering that we are 10 points ahead of Blitz but 5 points behind in max, we're basically tied for first as Blitz has a winrate of roughly 2/3. Every point will matter in this direct dispute.


As for the promotion spot, I think that Blitz and 101st/Outlaws have to reach 150 points to have an almost guaranteed promotion. I say that considering ONE and VIW max points but also because getting 150 points or more would mean that both clans need a perfect or near perfect end of the CL.

Getting 150 points for VIW would mean they got 30 out of 36 points, or an 83% point winrate. For ONE they'd need 36 out of 45 points, or an 80% point winrate. Both rates are higher than their current respective winrates.

If we consider a floor of 150 for BLITZ and 101st/Outlaws to get promoted, Blitz needs to win 27 out of 56 remaining available points, or a point winrate of 48%; 101st/Outlaws would need in their side 17 out of 41 points or a point winrate of 41%.

Both rates are below these clans average performance; if the actual winrates of the top 4 remain the same, they will promote. VIW and ONE need to do a great last line performance and depend on their direct competitors to perform poorly.

I think atm that I will give 99% odds of at least one of the 2 first clans to promote, and 90% odds of both moving to A next season.


PS: For those who want to know the rates for a 100% guaranteed promotion, Blitz and 101st/Outlaws would need 160 points, or respective point winrates of 66,07% (37/56) and 65,85% (27/41).

And he didn't properly cite any sources either!

Based on your information TeamGuns this makes the VIW vs ONE! Great Lakes game probably the tiebreaker in terms of what clan will challenge for the magical 150 point mark.

Update:
F.Earth:
101 defeated Blitz
Blitz defeated REGL


China:
101 defeated VIW

ME:
101 defeated Sninja
Blitz defeated ONE
101 wins the tournament (5-0 for now)

EU:
VIW defeated Blitz

G.lakes:
Blitz defeated Stahl
Stahl defeated Sninja

 Clan    points   Max points    Wins   Losses   Winrate
1º 101      145        174        38      21        64.41%
2º Blitz    136        170        38      20        65.42%
3º VIW      125        152        36      24        60.00%
4º ONE      114        150        34      24        58.62%
5º SNinja   101        127        27      33        45.00%
6º Stahl     64         72        18      46        28.13%
7º REGL      60         90        18      41        30.51%

101 needs 8 more points (out of 29) to secure promotion.
Blitz needs 17 (out of 34).


Remaining games:
F.Earth:
101st vs SNinja
101st vs REGL
101st vs ONE
101st vs VIW
Blitz vs ONE


China:
REGL vs Blitz
REGL vs Stahl
REGL vs VIW
Blitz vs 101st
Sninja vs blitz
Sninja vs ONE


ME 2vs2:
101st vs VIW
SNinja vs Blitz
ONE vs Stahl
REGL vs Blitz


EU:
Blitz vs Sninja
VIW vs ONE
VIW vs REGL
ONE vs REGL


G.Lakes:
101st VS SNinja
Blitz vs ONE
VIW vs ONE

Edited 9/25/2016 15:14:07

I will write a table of points remaining against each clan

CLANS    101  Blitz  VIW  ONE  SNinja  Stahl  REGL  TOTAL
101       -     4     8    4     9       0      4    29
Blitz     4     -     0    9     13      0      8    34
VIW       8     0     -    10    0       0      9    27
ONE       4     9     10   -     4       4      5    36     
Sninja    9     13    0    4     -       0      0    26
Stahl     0     0     0    4     0       -      4     8
REGL      4     8     9    5     0       4      -    30

Edit: Errors fixed. All should be okay now.

Edited 9/24/2016 14:36:35

Thanks for the update Memele!

It seems like 101st/Outlaws and Blitz are promoting. The chances for that not happening are slim, results depend in other clans than only the 3rd and 4th. However, I made a path for promotion to VIW and ONE based on Memele's points remaining against each clan table.


101st/Outlaws not promoting path

VIW must win their 8 last direct pts against the potato clan. Winning their last 9 points against REGL would put them at 142. After that they also need the 10 points against ONE in order to get some room for Outlaws winning points. VIW being at 152, 101st can only win one game. If they beat REGL they reach 149; meanning Blitz, Sninja and ONE need to win their final games against them.

ONE needs to do a similar thing. They must imperatively win their game against Outlaws and then pull a perfect score (or almost perfect if we stay strictly in mathematical chances). They are also depending in VIW, Blitz and Sninja to beat 101st.

Which is basically why ONE and VIW have no chances of promoting together to A this season. They have 10 pts remaining against each other, meaning that at best with a bizarre game results we could have a tie for second with VIW finishing at 147, ONE and 101st at 145 and Blitz at 140-144.

Blitz not promoting path

This is an easier path that allows some margin to Blitz winning games and VIW/ONE losing some.

VIW has no direct game left with Blitz, meanning they rely a lot in other clans if they want to promote. If they win their 9 points remaining against REGL, they get to 134. After that they need to do a good score against ONE and Outlaws. They can probably only lose one game here in order to keep chances of promotion alive. They'd end this way at 147-148 points. Blitz in the other hand can't win more than 2 games; VIW relies in Sninja, 101st, ONE and possibly REGL to take away Blitz max points.

ONE has in the other hand games left against Blitz, but is far away in points, meanning they have to win at an even bigger % than VIW needs. So, ONE must in the first place win those 9 points against Blitz. Losing against Stahl and REGL is also not recommended. So, winning these games put them at 132 points. After that they have 18 points left to play, where they can't lose more than one game if they want to keep promoting chances. They would end at 145-146 points if all works all nicely. Then they are also heavily dependent of Sninja and 101st winning against Blitz as well as some possible REGL upsets against Blitz. Blitz can't win more than 2 games either if ONE wants to keep chances of promotion alive, and there's a chance for a tie using this path.


PS: someone please correct me if something above is false.

Edited 9/25/2016 20:57:10

Thanks for update Memele

I think 101st only needs 8 more points as that will mean we will have more total points than ONE + VIW max points and Blitz only needs 17 points not 20 right?

Yeah, 101 and blitz need 8 and 17 points each, there was an error with ONE max points and I forgot to change that ^^U
And taking into account that 100% poitns it's rather difficult, probably half than that it's enough (or even less), but mathematecally speaking, what's said.

So the fight for the title commenting. It looks like division B title is between 101st/Outlaws and Blitz (please MIFRAN don't kill me for saying that!).

So, things evolved a bit after the 9/16 update and it is useless to point out that every point matters for this dispute. However since the previous update we went from a technical tie to a clear but not yet consolidated 101st lead; the 1-2 gap went from a 10 to a 9 lead of Outlaws, while the Max went from a 5 lead of Blitz to a 4 101st lead.

What big of a lead it is? Well it's hard to have a precise number, but let's do some maths and probabilities to sort it out. If we use a 2/3 point earning efficiency for both clans, we can project that Outlaws will win 19.33 out of their 29 yet for grabs points and Blitz to grab 21.67 points. With these projections we have:

Outlaws ending with 164.33 points and
Blitz ending with 157.67 points.
So a lead of 6.67 points in favour of 101st if we use this not at all perfect way of predicting "real point differences" but the best I could think of.

However as opposed to ONE and VIW chances of promotion, Blitz solely relies on it's results to win the cup (or at least tie for it). That is mainly because the Max pts difference is only 4 and because they still have a direct 2v2 against Outlaws.

Which leaves us with that 2v2 China game. Winning it is very important to either 101st in order to consolidate it's lead or for Blitz to catch up with 101st for the title win.

So what is at stake? In any normal game, winning allows a 2/3 clan to expand or retract the 1st-2nd gap by 1/3*(value of the game) points compared to the points earning projection for that game while a loss works in the wrong side by a 2/3*(value of the game) points compared to the same projection.

So that means that every time Outlaws or Blitz win a 1v1, they earn 1 point more than expected, for a 2v2 it's 1.33 and a 3v3, 1.67; in the opposite if they lose, 1v1s make them lose 2 points more than expected, 2v2s 2.67 and 3v3s 3.33 points.

Do you follow? No? Good let's continue.


So let's go back to our 6.67 gap between 101st and Blitz. If Blitz wants to close the gap or Outlaws expand it, they need to outperform their projection and hope that their opponent doesn't do the same or underperform compared to their projections.

So if Blitz wants to close this gap on it's own, they need to win 4 2v2s (worth 5.33 in gap closing) and 1 3v3 (worth 1.67) without losing any game. This would turn the -6.67 gap into a narrow +0.33 lead (so roughly tied) if 101st performs as expected.

It is a hard task for Blitz, for Outlaws to increase their lead they also need to overperform compared to Blitz in this final CL part. Which is why the China 2v2 game is so important atm.

This is a special game, because whoever wins will not only gain 1.33 points more than expected but also hit the direct opponent by 2.67 in their respective expected points to be earned. So this game will award 4 points in total to either close or expand that gap, which is pretty much a game that is worth 3!

If Blitz wins the 101st advantage gap will go to 2.67, which is fairly easier to fill and puts #1 under striking range (winning 2 2v2s with no losses would be enough). While an Outlaws victory would expand their projected lead to 10.67, which would be really hard for Blitz to overcome with.


Thanks for your read if you haven't fallen asleep with all these maths. I will remind y'all that these are all based in projections and that nothing is settled out yet. I may also have done one or two calculation fuck ups in this blob, but the general idea still applies.

I would like to wish good luck for all the title and promotion contenders in these last games. May Fizzer be in your side!

It was nice being part of this competition as 101st/Outlaw :)

@Benoit, and you are still staying at div B :D

@KKND yea probably :D

Update:

Eu:
VIW defeated REGL

G.Lakes: 101 defeated Sninja
ONE defeated VIW

Clan    points   Max points    Wins   Losses   Winrate
1º 101      150        174        39      21        65.00%
2º Blitz    136        170        38      20        65.42%
3º VIW      130        147        37      25        59.68%
4º ONE      119        150        35      24        59.32%
5º SNinja   101        122        27      32        44.26%
6º Stahl     64         72        18      46        28.13%
7º REGL      60         85        18      42        30.00%

101 needs 1 point to promotion (0 if ONE loses a game).
Blitz needs 15.


Remaining games:
F.Earth:
101st vs SNinja
101st vs REGL
101st vs ONE
101st vs VIW
Blitz vs ONE


China:
REGL vs Blitz
REGL vs Stahl
REGL vs VIW
Blitz vs 101st
Sninja vs blitz
Sninja vs ONE


ME 2vs2:
101st vs VIW
SNinja vs Blitz
ONE vs Stahl
REGL vs Blitz


EU:
Blitz vs Sninja
VIW vs ONE
ONE vs REGL


G.Lakes:
Blitz vs ONE


Points remaining against each clan

CLANS    101  Blitz  VIW  ONE  SNinja  Stahl  REGL  TOTAL
101       -     4     8    4     4       0      4    24
Blitz     4     -     0    9     13      0      8    34
VIW       8     0     -    5     0       0      4    17
ONE       4     9     5    -     4       4      5    31     
Sninja    4     13    0    4     -       0      0    21
Stahl     0     0     0    4     0       -      4     8
REGL      4     8     4    5     0       4      -    25

Edited 9/30/2016 20:57:04

VIW beat REGL on Europe a few days ago.

Ok, updated that, thanks.

Edited 9/30/2016 21:01:26

Update:
China:
Blitz defeated REGL
REGL defeated VIW

ME:
Blitz defeated Sninja
Blitz defeated REGL
ONE defeated Stahl

EU:
VIW defeated ONE

Clan    points   Max points    Wins   Losses   Winrate
1º 101      150        174        39      21        65.00%
2º Blitz    148        170        41      20        67.21%
3º VIW      135        143        38      26        59.38%
4º ONE      123        145        36      25        59.02%
5º SNinja   101        118        27      35        43.55%
6º REGL      64         77        19      44        30.16%
7º Stahl     64         68        18      47        27.69%

101 and blitz promoted. Congratulations!


Remaining games:
F.Earth:
101st vs SNinja
101st vs REGL
101st vs ONE
101st vs VIW
Blitz vs ONE


China:
REGL vs Stahl
Blitz vs 101st
Sninja vs blitz
Sninja vs ONE


ME 2vs2:
101st vs VIW

EU:
Blitz vs Sninja
ONE vs REGL

G.Lakes:
Blitz vs ONE


Points remaining against each clan

CLANS    101  Blitz  VIW  ONE  SNinja  Stahl  REGL  TOTAL
101       -     4     8    4     4       0      4    24
Blitz     4     -     0    9     9       0      0    22
VIW       8     0     -    0     0       0      0    8
ONE       4     9     0    -     4       0      5    22     
Sninja    4     9     0    4     -       0      0    17
Stahl     0     0     0    0     0       -      4     4
REGL      4     0     0    5     0       4      -    13

Edited 10/6/2016 11:29:51

Oh wow, Stahl almost didn't finish last. That was a surprise.
Poor ONE! :( But it was much tighter than expected.
Congratulations to Owtlawz and Banana Clan*!


*who remembers that?

He'll probably be back playing in next season while i'm probably not here for next season so get used to him talking about the potato map again.

First of all, congratulations for Blitz and Outlaws/101st for promoting. Wp for VIW and ONE that also played very well and have excellent players, I wish you guys good luck in B next season, perhaps we will play the CL together again if you guys go up or we get crushed and relegated next season. The first scenario looks happier though lol...

Well, now going back to the update. This is a good update for Blitz, they reduced the earned points gap from 9 to 2 while keeping their max, it's definetly a good result and a step towards closing that expected points gap.

If we keep that 2/3 points earned on the remaining points, we have 24 points yet to be played for Outlaws and 22 for Blitz, meanning Outlaws is expected to win 16 points while Blitz should get 14.66. We should then end with:

166 for Outlaws and 162.66 for Blitz, meaning there's an expected gap of 3.33 points in favour of Outlaws now.

Last week this gap was of 6.67 points, meanning this week's result cut the difference to half of what it was before. One more week like this and the gap will be closed. We also need not to forget the China game, winning it would put Blitz slightly ahead, losing it would liquidate this week's positive result. I'm both excited and scared to see this game's result :o


To make it simple:
- Earned points gap went from +9 to +2 for Outlaws
- Max points remain unchanged, Outlaws is ahead by 4 points
- Expected final gap went from a healthy +6.67 Outlaws lead to a narrower +3.33 gap
- China's 2v2 may be the decisive win Outlaws need to get the trophy or a win that will put Blitz ahead

Let the game begin!

Edited 10/6/2016 19:58:51