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WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 16:52:27

Phaeril 
Level 60
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Groups just got sampled in twitch.

GOOGLE SHEET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19J3k1UaoTlO8gECi2nPi8bewK4VlvYgClxRR90GpmHg/edit?usp=sharing

So there it is (don't hesitate to comment / to try some predictions):

G1
Players: Tbest - KKND - hedja - Krzychu - Sultan Kosmitow - MotD
Templates: Snow Mountains MA & China (rt ladder)

G2
Players: Mirror - timon92 - Rakleader - FlyingBender - Farah - Timinator
Templates: MME Commander & Greece 5x5 0% SR

G3
Players: Mike - USA Bitches - Wazz - INSIDE - Super Smoove - Master Ryiro
Templates: Guiroma (4x5 0% SR) & Strat ME (0% SR RMO)

G4
Players: Summer - MoD - Verzehrer - Beren - Nox - MisterT
Templates: French Brawl & Yin'angzhou

G5
Players: fireice82 - GreenTea - linberson - PanagiotisTheGreakFreak - SexMachineRJ - Buns157
Templates: Turkey LD & Qina

G6
Players: MIFRAN - AI - Phaeril - Peixoto - Nackickwind - Quicksand
Templates: Battle Island & Treasure Map

I will create tourneys next week. If someone wants to help me for that, or would like to comments some games of this event in twitch with me, just let me know.

You can find the initial thread of the event here:
https://www.warlight.net/Forum/151215-warlight-world-champions-league-wwcl

Remember points from each player count for his country. One win = one point. At the end of the season, there will be a new classement of countries to give automatic country spots.

PS: I'm sorry, I forgot to say "voulez vous coucher avec moi" at the end of the stream, but I will not forget next time. ;) TY to watched my stream. Sorry for my french accent.^^

Edited 8/31/2016 21:46:14
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 16:55:22


(AOE) Manchester United
Level 26
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can I join next time?
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 17:04:18

Phaeril 
Level 60
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Don't forget to ask me to invite you to qualifiers for the next season (probably in 2017^^), and if you can go through qualifiers, you will be able to play the main event.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 17:13:51


PanagiotisTheGreekFreak
Level 61
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My predictions for WWCL

G1

Motd and Krzychu

G2

Timon92 and Timinator

G3

Mike and UsaBiches

G4

Mod and MisterT

G5

Buns157 and GreenTea(always do not put myself but I'll try)

G6

Mifran and Nackckiwind

Edited 7/2/2016 17:20:40
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 17:34:35

Seph's Sausage 
Level 55
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PS: I'm sorry, I forgot to say "voulez vous coucher avec moi" at the end of the stream, but I will not forget next time. ;) TY to watched my stream. Sorry for my french accent.^^



YAY! <3 lol

oops forgot to post on my main lol - styx

Edited 7/2/2016 17:34:53
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 21:18:31


Timinator 
Level 62
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fuck off commanders.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 21:19:08


master of desaster 
Level 64
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HAHA :D timi got commanders :D
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 21:21:35


Timinator 
Level 62
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i'll decline that tournament. no joke.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 21:26:08

Krzysztof 
Level 65
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Put transfer request, i can switch with you :D
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 21:34:27


OxTheAutist 
Level 58
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Players: Summer - MoD - Verzehrer - Beren - Nox - MisterT

gg Nox
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 22:23:36


TBest 
Level 59
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G6

Rank Player name    Points EPoints  StdDev   ERank    1  2  3  4  5  6
   1 Quicksand         0.0    7.73    1.29    1.41   73 18  6  2  1  0
   2 MIFRAN            0.0    6.11    1.31    2.52   16 41 25 13  4  1
   3 Peixoto           0.0    5.08    1.50    3.41    6 20 27 26 15  6
   4 Phaeril           0.0    4.95    1.37    3.54    4 16 28 30 16  5
   5 AI                0.0    3.37    1.28    4.90    0  2  7 18 41 31
   6 Nackickwind       0.0    2.75    1.57    5.23    1  3  6 11 23 56


Phaeril has been guesstimated to have 2047 in 1v1 Ladder rating. (Or more specificaly, I used jhk 's data in the calculations.) Although they look fancy, keep in mine this is only predictions :p
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 22:48:04


TBest 
Level 59
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G5
Rank Player name                Points EPoints  StdDev   ERank    1  2  3  4  5  6
   1 Buns157                       0.0    8.55    1.16    1.31   73 24  3  0  0  0
   2 GreenTea                      0.0    6.05    1.54    2.72    5 44 31 13  5  1
   3 fireice82                     0.0    4.47    1.46    3.90    0  9 27 33 23  7
   4 PanagiotisTheGreekFreak       0.0    4.20    1.46    4.12    0  7 21 34 29  9
   5 linberson                     0.0    3.52    1.98    4.50    1  8 13 16 37 24
   6 SexMachineRJ                  0.0    3.20    3.87    4.44   20  8  4  3  6 59


GreenTea is calculated from leMarseillais 1v1 data. (I pick the player based on closest to GreenTea's last rating and preferably higher StdDev.) SexMachineRJ has no 1v1 and is treated as unknown.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/2/2016 23:44:07

Phaeril 
Level 60
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No switch. This should be unfair.

If Timinator don't want to play, I cannot force him to play, but I will not change the rules for him. This tourney suppose the winner could play (and win) on very different templates. If a player cannot, just he should not go, he is not the best anyway.

Timinator, you should play. If you don't want, this will penalize you, will penalize germany (indirectly), and will penalize the tournament.


TBest, I'm glad to see a prediction that not put french in last places. Poor AI, between two french, he should be very bad.^^ Do you predict that from ladder perf ?
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 00:03:46


Sułtan Kosmitów 
Level 63
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^ Nice to see a reasonable answer :) ^
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 10:19:14

Phaeril 
Level 60
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WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 10:51:41


Timinator 
Level 62
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Commanders are bullshit from a strategic view.
i completely stopped playing rt ladder because commanders are there. and i will keep boycotting commanders.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 12:49:55

Phaeril 
Level 60
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So you can decline the commander tourney and play the other one. I don't think you could be qualified for round 2 with that, but maybe take some points for germany. As you want.

I'm not strong with commanders, but I don't think it's not strategic... it's recent, maybe you just don't understand it for now, as a lot of players (and probably me).
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 12:57:48

AI
Level 59
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5th place is a heavy prediction for me, I would be glad if I could even win one game :P
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 13:02:00


Timinator 
Level 62
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if spamming every opponent's territory with an attack of 1 without risk sounds strategic to you... well, can't help you then :)
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 17:15:19


TBest 
Level 59
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G4
Rank Player name   Points EPoints  StdDev   ERank    1  2  3  4  5  6
   1 Verzehrer        0.0    7.46    1.37    1.75   46 38 12  3  1  0
   2 Beren            0.0    7.09    1.86    2.06   41 32 15  7  3  2
   3 MoD              0.0    4.66    2.37    3.71   11 15 22 16 15 21
   4 Nox              0.0    4.27    1.39    3.97    1  7 27 34 22  9
   5 MisterT          0.0    3.69    1.65    4.42    1  6 17 24 27 24
   6 Summer           0.0    2.83    1.37    5.10    0  1  7 17 31 44


andy903 data' is used for Beren. MarcRoss for MoD.

@ Do you predict that from ladder perf ?

Yes, unexpired games from the 1v1 ladder is the source. (which is why I find a "replacment" player for the once who are not on the ladder, following the principle from last post.)

Edited 7/3/2016 17:16:28
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 18:08:45


master of desaster 
Level 64
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who the hell is Marc ross? ^^ i toght i know almost all good players
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 18:43:24

MIFRAN 
Level 63
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haha xD
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 20:16:32


TBest 
Level 59
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I have no clue who Marc Ross is. I don't even have his profile link as a matter of fact. Also, MoD, who siad you are a good player ;)

In seriousness through, I used the rating you had when you entered your last played ladder game. In your case that is significantly lower then your peak. (about 1900 compered to 2300) Due to this I picked a player with a high StdDev, (so few games). Point is, the prediction probably undervalues you. (21% chance of last place...) I know it is wrong, but I would rather be consistent with the principle I stated earlier.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/3/2016 23:50:06

Phaeril 
Level 60
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To estimate a player with another one ? Furthermore with very suspicious similarities, and with very few and incomplete data... Why you have chosen Marc Ross so TBest ? These predictions have no sense. There is no good tool without common sense even if your simulation tool seems to be interesting. ;)

Timi, you are a very good player, but you seem to be very mulish too. Maybe it's why you're not the best. I organize that and try to do this pleasant to all. I didn't choose templates I like or I'm good. I didn't do that without asking for some advices. I'm not here to debate longer of all or a part of them now (too late) and still less to hear your condescension.

I do not get tired more. Play or do not play, you will be invited to the two tournaments anyway.

Edited 7/3/2016 23:52:36
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/4/2016 14:45:21

Phaeril 
Level 60
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First match series have been created.

Tournament links:

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19721
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19726
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19725
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19723
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19724
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=19727
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/4/2016 15:39:26


TBest 
Level 59
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To estimate a player with another one ? Furthermore with very suspicious similarities, and with very few and incomplete data... Why you have chosen Marc Ross so TBest ? These predictions have no sense. There is no good tool without common sense even if your simulation tool seems to be interesting. ;)


I could have treated MoD as an unknow player. But this makes even less sense /: then MoD's prediction would have looked like this "
6 SexMachineRJ                  0.0    3.20    3.87    4.44   20  8  4  3  6 59"


So that option is no good. I choose MarcRoss becoes he was closest to the Last rating MoD had on the 1v1 ladder. So while inaccurate, better then nothing. But yes, the tool is only good for the players who have unexpired games on the 1v1 ladder. And this is alos the first time I am trying this, so I am curious as to how accurate it will turn out to be. (Besides, accuracy is never there anyway. Skill on one template don't equal skill on another.)
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/4/2016 22:02:57

Phaeril 
Level 60
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What is the tool you use for your simulations ? I don't think ladder stat is a very good thing to make predictions, so all this seems crap to me, but maybe the tool is ok. I would be curious to see that.
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/4/2016 22:07:46


TBest 
Level 59
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I wrote about it here. https://www.warlight.net/Forum/159812-clan-league-8-division-c-official-thread?Offset=160 , and the next page in that thread.
You will see a few more predictions there. And you also see what happens when you have unknown players... which is why I choose to use an existing player here.

http://www.remi-coulom.fr/Bayesian-Elo/

^the tool that is used for making the ratings on the ladder. This also includes a RR prediction tool. It is that prediction tool that I am using. This means it is very easy to take the ladder data http://data.warlight.net/Data/BayeseloLog0.txt and predict things. After all the Data is already in the right format.

Edited 7/4/2016 22:13:09
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/6/2016 10:47:17

Phaeril 
Level 60
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TY
WWCL - Round #1 - Groups & Templates: 7/11/2016 13:11:40

Phaeril 
Level 60
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Update after one week.




- hedja got two boots already and will have hard time to reach round 2.
- Summer beats Verzehrer who seems not so in shape currently.
- Wazz beats INSIDE
- MIFRAN beats AI
- Panagiotis beats fireice82 and fireice82 beats SexMachineRJ.

No surprise for now. The round 2 stay open for everyone.

Edited 7/11/2016 13:20:52
Posts 1 - 30 of 57   1  2  Next >>   

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