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Eleven Random First Moves in A Row! One in 2048!: 11/13/2016 06:52:51


Green Turtle 
Level 61
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And it's still counting by the time we surrendered. Let's all remember this name Russ_girl, the lord of luck in Warlight!

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12292153
Eleven Random First Moves in A Row! One in 2048!: 11/13/2016 07:06:32


TBest 
Level 59
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I see like, 3 first moves in a row....

Keep in mind that when Team A has 3 players and team B has 1, the team B player always goes 1st or 2nd.
Eleven Random First Moves in A Row! One in 2048!: 11/14/2016 15:28:20


Carlos
Level 58
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Nothing strange there, neither 1/2048. Its random between the players of a team, and if its team A or B that starts. In a 3v3, you will have ABBAAB or BAABBA.

As the other team loses 2 players, they´re last player now have 1st order at her team. It only changes if your team or her starts.

Even if her team started 11 turns in a row, this happens eventually - and it is a false 1 in 2^11. Because you need to consider that this can happen at any time in a game (if it had started in turn 25, you had other 24 chances before to do the same, so the chance is higher), and there are hundreds of thousands random order games, with millions of turns that can start your row.

Edit: you needed gray to take turn before red. Gray chance of starting at your team was 1/3, and chance of your team starting was 1/2. So gray had 1/6 chance of taking turn before red.

So she had 5/6 of chances of starting turn. That means that, if you DONT consider other turns, her chance would be (5/6)^11=0.135, or 13.5%.
If you consider other turns (means more chances of having this), this chance would be higher. Its far from 1/2048.

Edited 11/14/2016 15:36:11
Eleven Random First Moves in A Row! One in 2048!: 11/17/2016 08:18:44


Green Turtle 
Level 61
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I see. So instead of random by player, it's random by team then random by player within each team. Thanks for the explanation.
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