Please mention me more, it makes me feel important.

Just waiting on JSA to comment now, then the circlejerk will be complete.

Really liking TJC to win Group Q3. This guy: https://www.warlight.net/Profile?p=1275133857 looks like a potential star.

Thats my main account, where did you find him?

I never reveal my sources.

Its alright, I'll ask your brother.

He is a star, but none of his opponents will have been around long enough to know him..... Except Math Wolf.

Place	Clan		Points
1.	Masters		163
2.	Turtles		154
3.	Lynx		152
4.	French		115
5.	ONE!   		101
6.	Outlaws		70
7.	Blitz		51

This is what I get when I fill in that scoresheet thingy, keep in mind that I'm obviously biased towards Turtles (although I tried to prevent as much bias possible).

1. Masters 190
2. Lynx 187
3. Turtles 154
4. French 103
5. ONE 93
6. Outlaws 76
7. Blitz 49

So I predicted ONE as coming 6th before. But I got them coming in 5th with the spreadsheet. Not too far off French either. Outlaws did worse than I first thought too, especially on the team games.

Small gap between masters and lynx, and I guess he gaps between French, ONE and Blitz aren't too big either. So I expect these are the positions that could change.

A:

1. Masters
2. Lynx
3. Outlaws (this clan is probably the top skilled both in casting and recruiting, awesome job there)
4. Turtles
5. French
6. ONE
7. Blitz

B:

1. MH (compare to CL8, we lost Farah and his cookies :'(, Smoove and his 2 days 23:59 hours turns, and more importantly our best players are playing only 1 tourney this season, so we can finish anywhere from 1 to 4 - well as a MH I can only be arrogant right ;-)) so..)
2. GG
3. WG
4. VS
5. SNinja
6. VIW
7. BIA

Q1:

1. Hydra
2. Acme
3. FCC
4. Poon
5. FBG
6. Olympus

Q2:

1. 7th
2. CORP
3. LuFredd
4. GW
5. Dutch
6. PG

Q3:

1. TJC (can we have a full list of alts ? I originally put them in 4 before knowing about some alts)
2. 101st
3. Apprentice
4. Stats (like groups A and B, top 4 order of this group will be exciting to follow)
5. DWF
6. Hawks

Edited 2/5/2017 03:49:28

@Mike "well as a MH I can only be arrogant right" lmao :D

Results of Predictions

Div A

---

 	    1	       2	 3	   4	     5	       6	  7	 Responses	
Blitz	   2.70%      0%	0%	  0%	   24.32%    18.92%     54.05%	    37	
French	   8.11%      8.11%    13.51%    29.73%	   18.92%    18.92%      2.70%	    37	
Lynx	  21.05%     52.63%    18.42%     2.63%	    2.63%     2.63%      0%	    38	
Masters	  64.86%     21.62%    10.81%     0%	    0%	      0%	 2.70%	    37	
ONE	   0%	      2.70%     5.41%    16.22%	   24.32%    32.43%     18.92%	    37	
Outlaws	   2.70%      2.70%     2.70%    27.03%	   21.62%    21.62%     21.62%	    37	
Turtles	   2.70%     10.81%    48.65%    24.32%	    8.11%     5.41%      0%	    37	

Div B

---

             1	        2	  3	    4	      5	        6	  7	 Responses
BIA	    0%	       0%	 2.70%	  10.81%     8.11%    29.73%	48.65%	    37	
GG	   78.38%     10.81%	 2.70%	   2.70%     0%	       2.70%	 2.70%	    37	
Mhunters   15.79%     34.21%	26.32%	  10.53%     7.89%     2.63%	 2.63%	    38	
Sninja	    0%	       2.70%	 5.41%	  13.51%    54.05%    10.81%	13.51%	    37	
VIW	    2.70%      5.41%	 2.70%	   0%	    16.22%    43.24%	29.73%	    37	
VS	    2.70%     18.92%	32.43%	  35.14%     2.70%     8.11%	 0%	    37	
WG	    2.70%     27.03%	27.03%	  27.03%    10.81%     2.70%	 2.70%	    37	

There was one clever person that chose only one option, but let me to not reveal it :D

Edited 2/7/2017 06:14:43

Someone predicted VIW to finish 1st :O. I bet it was AG and his dart board!

FYI my dartboard is always right 64% of the time.

underdogs ftw

Was going to do a full prediction but seems a little late now things have kicked off (and i cba) so i'll just do the most interesting division:

Q3
Apprentice
TJC
DWF
101st
Hawks
Statisticians

Comments: Hawks are being underated and i'd be surprised if they finish bottom;
Anyone could come out top or bottom here i think...

Edited 2/8/2017 14:59:37

„ i'd be surprised if they finish bottom“
„Anyone could come out (top or) bottom here i think“

Seems Math Wolf forgot to reveal his results :)

No, family party that I couldn't escape. I'm looking at them at the moment. ;-)

Beware: wall of text and results incoming!

The detailed results per division can be found below and will also be discussed in each division topic.

---

---

#### General data-analytic remarks ####
(Skip if this is not your thing.)

---

There were 90 retained responses of which 38 anonymous. One troll response was deleted (so 91 surveys were collected).

Of these 90, 5 respondents showed or reported some uninformed predictions for one or more divisions, which were subsequently deleted. This resulted in 90 predictions for division A, 89 for B, 85 for Q1, 86 for Q2 and 86 for Q3.

Tests were performed to check if anonymous replies differed significantly from non-anonymous replies. No significant differences were found. Additionally, both exploratory analysis and ranking squared deviations from the mean predictions showed no different trends for anonymous responses.

---

Some respondents reported ties, i.e. 2 clans in the same division finishing at the same place. I see this as a feature, not a bug. Those results were retained. Consequently, the percentages per clan will sum to 100, but per rank they will not.

---

Some descriptives:
* Respondents were from 24 different clans, including 2 clans not participating in Clan League. 30 respondents, mostly anonymous, did not report a clan. Clans with at least 3 respondents include (in alphabetical order) 101st, Apprentice, Blitz, CORP, FCC, Hydra, Icelandic Turtles, Lynx, Masters, Outlaws, VS.
* Respondents were mostly male (64), with 2 reported females. The males includes one respondent who is assumed to be female by many. 22 repondents either left this blank or preferred not to say. The remaining 2 correspondents were of gender, other: "slug" and "tranny". Both gave their username, but I don't know either well enough to comfirm or deny this reported gender.
* Of the 54 respondents who shared their age, 51 were between 15 and 44 years old. Three outliers, all non-anonymous, were detected: one person being 88 years (likely not correct) and two others respectively 3 and 5 years old. The latter is likely the correct mental age for both.
And, of course, what all you horny pervs want to know: the non-anonymous woman chose to not share her age, the anonymous woman is 17 and therefore jailbait. So please behave!

---

Below, a table is reported for each division with all percentages per clan per rank (percentages calculated absolute number divided by non-missing responses as above). Additionally, a mean rank and standard deviation is given. Clans are sorted by mean rank.
A chi-squared analysis (not reported) obviously showed that the predicted ranks are dependent on the clan in each division, proving that in no divisions all clans have a completely interchangeable level (even not in Q3).
An ANOVA test on the means followed by a Tukey pairwise comparison (multiple testing correction) shows which clans are predicted to rank significantly higher than others. This test needs either a normality or large sample size assumption for correct p-values. Since this only approximately fullfilled, borderline significance cannot be trusted. Luckily, few tests showed borderline significant results.

---

The mean squared error (difference) between ranks given by each respondent and the average predicted ranks was calculated. No obvious outliers were detected. The person with responses closest the means was anonymous, with malakkan and Hunta respectively second and third. The person with responses farthest from the means was non-anonymous and known by me. His responses, while deviating from most, still made sense and were retained.

---

---

#### Division A ####

           1    2    3    4    5    6    7 mean   sd        
Masters 78.9 14.4  4.4  1.1  0.0  0.0  1.1 1.33 0.85
Lynx    13.3 56.7 15.6  7.8  3.3  3.3  0.0 2.41 1.13
Turtles  3.3 15.6 52.2 17.8 11.1  0.0  0.0 3.18 0.94
French   2.2  6.7 16.7 34.4 21.1 16.7  2.2 4.24 1.29
Outlaws  0.0  2.2  7.8 20.0 28.9 21.1 20.0 5.19 1.31
One      1.1  3.3  3.3 16.7 22.2 38.9 14.4 5.30 1.29
Blitz    2.2  1.1  1.1  3.3 13.3 17.8 61.1 6.22 1.30

The difference for 5th between Outlaws and One was non-significant, all other differences were highly significant. These results seem to be in line with the ones from KKND.
Full discussion at https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244331-clan-league-9-division-official-thread?Offset=9

---

---

#### Division B ####

            1    2    3    4    5    6    7 mean   sd        
GG       83.1 10.1  3.4  0.0  0.0  3.4  0.0 1.34 0.99
Mhunters  9.0 40.4 25.8 14.6  5.6  2.2  2.2 2.83 1.30
WG        3.4 25.8 21.3 41.6  3.4  1.1  3.4 3.33 1.22
VS        2.2 18.0 38.2 24.7  7.9  7.9  1.1 3.46 1.23
Sninja    1.1  2.2  3.4 13.5 52.8 15.7 11.2 5.07 1.13
VIW       2.2  1.1  7.9  2.2 15.7 36.0 34.8 5.75 1.42
BIA       0.0  2.2  2.2  2.2 13.5 34.8 44.9 6.11 1.11

The difference for 2nd between M'hunters and WG was not significant at the 5% level with a p-value of 9%. The difference for 3rd between WG and VS was not significant either. However, the difference between M'Hunters and VS is significant with a p-value of 0.9%. The difference for 6th between VIW and BIA is not significant.
Full discussion at https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244418-clan-league-9-division-b-official-thread?Offset=13

---

---

#### Division Q1 ####

              1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
Hydra      74.1 17.6  5.9  1.2  0.0  1.2 1.39 0.82
FCC        12.9 41.2 23.5 12.9  5.9  3.5 2.68 1.24
ACME        5.9 22.4 44.7 12.9 11.8  2.4 3.09 1.13
Poon Squad  4.7  8.2  7.1 32.9 20.0 27.1 4.36 1.41
Olympus     1.2  5.9 12.9 29.4 24.7 25.9 4.48 1.24
FBG         2.4  5.9  5.9 10.6 36.5 38.8 4.89 1.28

The difference for 2nd between FCC and ACME was not significant. The difference for 4th to 5th and 5th to 6th was not significant either with 4th to 6th (Poon Squad vs. FBG) borderline (p-value 4.8%).
Full discussion at: https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244379-clan-league-9-division-q1-official-thread?Offset=26

---

---

#### Division Q2 ####

                   1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
CORP            32.6 43.0  9.3  9.3  3.5  2.3 2.15 1.21
7th Heaven      52.3 20.9  3.5  8.1  7.0  8.1 2.21 1.67
LuFredd          2.3 11.6 27.9 23.3 20.9 14.0 3.91 1.32
German Warlords  5.8  8.1 25.6 19.8 22.1 18.6 4.00 1.45
Dutch [NL]       4.7 12.8 15.1 17.4 23.3 26.7 4.22 1.54
Preussen Garde   3.5  4.7 18.6 22.1 22.1 29.1 4.42 1.38

Two obvious blocks here. The difference for first between CORP and 7th Heaven is not significant (note the higher estimated variation of 7th Heaven, possibly due to some respondents not knowing who's in the clan). All differences from 3th to 6th are not significant either with LuFredd - Preussen Garde at a p-value of 18%, delivering no proof that the Warlight community sees any of these clans as having a significantly different skill level of any other.
Full discussion at: https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244354-clan-league-9-qualifier-q2-official-thread?Offset=17

---

---

#### Division Q3 ####
(the only division that matters)

                 1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
101st         25.6 29.1 23.3 15.1  4.7  2.3 2.51 1.28
Apprentice    32.6 23.3 22.1  8.1  2.3 11.6 2.59 1.62
Statisticians 24.4 22.1 23.3 20.9  7.0  2.3 2.71 1.35
TJC           15.1 14.0 12.8 20.9 30.2  7.0 3.58 1.58
DWF            3.5  9.3  8.1 27.9 37.2 14.0 4.28 1.28
Hawks          1.2  3.5  9.3  7.0 17.4 61.6 5.21 1.24

There is no significant difference between the top 3 clans here. Note that 4 clans got at least 10 first place votes here and each clan has at least 40% of the respondents placing them outside the top 2. Did we say brutal? Brutal.
Full discussion at: https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244404-clan-league-9-division-q3-official-thread?Offset=31

---

---

I also asked people to share their deepest thoughts (on Clan League) if they wanted. Some gave some interesting analyses. A summary:

---

*On the clans, we got the following input:
Poon Squad, 101st, ACME and Masters got an extra vote of confidence. Hydra is much stronger than in CL8, M'Hunters are cool, French is underrated, Weirdo's shouldn't be underestimated, Outlaws didn't field their best line-up, ACME will lose to Hydra, TJC to Apprentice. Poon Squad nearly beats FCC, but FCC will rock your socks. WG should dissolve and give back smileyleg to TJC. M'Hunters get mad about a rule and blame their 3rd place finish on that. They will also miss first in their division by at most the amount of point they'll lose on 3v3 EU and proceed to blame Smoove for leaving the clan.

---

*On specific players and groups, we got the following input:
- Q3 is the toughest: One of TJC's players is Nich (former WG player) making TJC even stronger
- Math Wolf will lose all his games.
- MoD somehow doesn't win Elitist Africa, finishing 4-2.
- MOTD SUX
- I miss Sultan ),:

---

* About Clan League in general, the following input was given:
- Two people hope all goes smoothly without complaining and drama.
- Meanwhile, two others already claim it's rigged.
- It's going to be a good one though and we all are wished good luck by one friendly respondent!

---

* Some random knowledge that was shared.
(1) What is dead needs to shut up.
(2) If tomatoes are fruit is ketchup a smoothie?
(3) 42 is obviously the answer.
(4) Falling down the stairs hurts a lot more when there's a wall halfway through your fall.
(5) Does a slug want to eat lettuce, or is it fate?
(6) Go Trump!
And finally, my favourite:
(7) Masters will win it. Hell I prefer Mistresses but what the heck!
I couldn't agree more.

---

---

EDIT: Some minor spelling and grammar fixes, descriptives for age added, links to other topics added.

Edited 2/13/2017 01:53:48