Predictions based on 85 respondents:

              1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
Hydra      74.1 17.6  5.9  1.2  0.0  1.2 1.39 0.82
FCC        12.9 41.2 23.5 12.9  5.9  3.5 2.68 1.24
ACME        5.9 22.4 44.7 12.9 11.8  2.4 3.09 1.13
Poon Squad  4.7  8.2  7.1 32.9 20.0 27.1 4.36 1.41
Olympus     1.2  5.9 12.9 29.4 24.7 25.9 4.48 1.24
FBG         2.4  5.9  5.9 10.6 36.5 38.8 4.89 1.28

Hydra runs away with the win according to the respondents and even if they don't, getting to the C group should be obvious with over 90% (78 out of 85) putting them first and second. No other clan has a higher probability to end up in group C over all qualifiers. Additionally, their standard deviation of 0.82 is the lowest among all clans over all divisions.

FCC gets second relatively comfortable it seems, yet the difference for 2nd between FCC and ACME was not significant at the 5% significance level, so there is no evidence that the general Warlight public sees them as more skilled than ACME. According to our panel, getting to the C group is a coin-flip, with 54.1% predicting them there although mostly behind Hydra.

ACME finished just behind FCC in the predictions, with close to half of the votes third place and the remainder equally divided between better (getting to C) and worst. Their predictions are slightly more condensed than those of FCC, giving them a lower ceiling, but also higher floor, including only 2 last place votes to FCC's 3.

The race for 4th place was too close to call really. The difference for 4th to 5th and 5th to 6th was not significant with 4th to 6th (Poon Squad vs. FBG) borderline (p-value 4.8%). So while Poon Squad is ranked 4th, it's worth noting that almost half of the predictions put them lower than that. With only 20% top 3 predictions, getting to C seems like a reach to most of our panel. Nevertheless, they have only 1 first place vote less than third ranked ACME, so there is hope, I assume?

Even before Clan League started, getting to C was going to be a reach for Olympus. I'm not going to comment on what happened since as our respondents didn't know this either. Just like Poon Squad, the votes were about split between 4th, 5th and 6th with 20% predicting 3rd or higher. They do have the lowest first place and qualifying for C votes of all clans though, so the outlook was bleak to begin with. The model didn't give them significantly lower chances than Poon Squad at the time though.

FBG was only barely significantly worse ranked than Poon Squad, including the disclaimer in the main methodology. So it suffices to say that about everything going for Poon and Olympus, should also be going for the soccer guys (you know, that sport where you actually use your feet to touch the ball all the time unlike that rugby for soft guys). Compared to the previous two clans, the votes are more concentrated at 5 and 6 for FBG though, meaning than only a quarter of the respondents see them finishing 4th or higher with 7 respondents believing qualifying for C is possible.

Please see https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.

A good read, math wolf! I appreciate it!

Math wolf, you are a wonderful person. Very witty and informative, thank you.

Edited 2/13/2017 16:03:56

The FCC would like to make some substitutions

1v1 ME WR: From Omniscient --> sloppyfatginger
3v3 Deadman's Rome From Omniscient --> Super Smoove.

In round II

2v2 China From Super Smoove --> Des {TJC}

Edited 2/15/2017 00:26:02

confirming that FCC would like the above substitutions

Glad to hear that, i already thought aura hijacked the clan to fuck up the clan league roster

Someone call semicedevine. We need someone to hijack FCC back from me.

Quick Update:

We have a horse race!



Hydra has now caught up to FCC. Seems we are neck and neck!

Also, Olympus continues to fall off the face of the earth. I think it is safe to say, less than two weeks in, they are pretty much cooked.

Edited 2/15/2017 00:54:03

Quick Update:

Nauzhror gets booted from his games, and the FCC takes a hit. It is to be seen how the 3v3s ultimately turn out, but because nauzhror joined them before leaving, the FCC does have an ai teammate in them. These boots come at an inopportune time, since both of them come against ACME. the FCC will have to win both of its remaining 1v1 and 2v2s vs ACME if they want to split points between them and retain control of their destiny. HYDRA has become very active as of late, winning several 1v1s, a few 2v2s and a 3v3, bolting them into a definitive first place. Poon Squad is slipping a little, and Olympus finally wins their first game, but lose even more, sinking them further into the depths. FBG and ACME still have yet to win too much yet, so its hard to diagnose where they stand exactly relative to the other clans.



Next up: Comprehensive Update!

Edited 2/16/2017 00:31:30

Nauzhror gets booted from his games

Nobody seen this coming. ;)

Nobody seen this coming. ;)

It was a calculated risk, and it just simply didn't turn out for us.

Quick Update:

Q1 is proud to present the first official tournament win with Pardon99 sweeping guiroma! Congratulations pardon99!

My hot take so far this season are these:

• Hydra is off what seems like a good start but only one game has finished against either FCC or ACME and that was a loss on 1v1 Guiroma to FCC. So right now the clan is benefiting from 2 auto wins against Olympus on 3v3 RoR and 2v2 Gurioma as well easy opponents of FBG, Olympus and Poon Squad. The rubber hasn't hit the road for Hydra yet and time will tell if this streak continues or we come down to earth a bit.
  
• FCC, no clan wants booted players. And while Nauz is a great player, his penchant for booting is known. Its part of the reason I tend to go for activity over skill when building a lineup, but I digress. Overall great start boots aside. Pardon swept 1v1 Gurioma with a 5-0 record (I'm looking at A and B which have finished 3 games total to a finished Q1 tournament). But the clan has a likely 16 point handicap due to the Nauz issue. But more to say for ACME.
  
• ACME, can you maybe pick up the pace? Dear lord, 3 games? What are you, playing in Division A or B? XD Seriously, ACME will be the big question mark of this division. They will play slow and therefore drag out the FCC or ACME will they, wont they promote. Not much to say as they haven't finished games....
  
• Olympus, seems like the successor to LEA from last season. At this rate, next week they will be eliminated from promotion. The inactive player hurt them a lot. But the fact that they are burning through losses they way they are is the bigger problem.
  
• Poon Squad, I think the obvious 4th place clan for me going in. Their start is very middling but that is to be expected. Overall, they are putting up good enough numbers but it wont be enough. Poon Squad isn't an obvious strategy clan but its a clan with active players that do a good job in clan league and that shouldn't be overlooked.
  
• FBG, those quiet devils. If only there was something to say for them.

Cl9 Q1 Comprehensive Update II


Completed Games:

Detonates Winner

3v3 Deadman's Rome:
Olympus vs Hydra            (non-join win)

2v2 Guiroma:
FCC vs Poon Squad           https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12849472

1v1 Guiroma:
Hydra vs ACME               https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12856011
Hydra vs FBG                https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12889281
Poon Squad vs FCC           https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12907090
Poon Squad vs Olympus       https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12856009

1v1 Old Strat ME:
HYDRA vs Olympus            https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12862245
Poon Squad vs FCC           (non-join win)
Poon Squad vs Olympus       https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12862247
FCC vs ACME                 (non-join win)
 

1v1 Volcano Island
HYDRA vs Poon Squad         https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12869056
HYDRA vs Olympus            https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12896404
HYDRA vs FBG                https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12869067
Poon Squad  vs Olympus      https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12896406
FCC vs FBG                  https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12895112
Olympus vs ACME             (non-join win)
Olympus vs FBG              (non-join win

Data Summary:




Horse Race:




Progression:




Overview:
A much busier second week, for sure. Nauzhror gets booted, putting FCC into a hole early. HYDRA takes a strong lead. ACME is the only clan that remains quiet through all of this. Poon Squad takes on a nimble spot, FBG seems a bit weak at this point, and the gods have shunned Olympus. Compared to the first week, this second week has been much more active, as the clouds continue to clear and the points continue to roll in.


Clan by Clan:

ACME:
ACME continues its quiet pace, with only three completed games thus far. Their future remains uncertain.

FCC
FCC gets hammered this week, with several non joins by Nauzhror effectively making them lose 16 points, with the 3v3s probably not going to go their way with an AI teammate. On the positive side, Pardon99 took in the first tournament win for FCC, shedding a spot of hope for the team.

FBG
FBG has 8 completed games, but has lost six of them. They seem like they may deflate a bit in the coming weeks.

HYDRA
Hydra takes the definitive lead over FCC, courtesy of Nauzhror's non-joins. They are up 30-29 technically, but in reality, definitely hold the better position at the moment.

The Poon Squad
The clouds have cleared on Poon Squad, and the currently occupy the "upset potential" position on the clan league pole. Considering their team cohesiveness, they may prove to be capable of upsetting in some of their team games, especially on 3v3 rome where some of the rosters are not as stacked. Time will tell, but they definitely intrigue at this point.

Olympus
Olympus continues to faceplant. They are pelariously close to become the first qualifying team that has no mathematical chance of promoting to C. They definitely are showing lack in three basic areas of need when it comes to competing in clan league: strategic capability, Team cohesiveness, and responsibility to Join/Play through games. 48 max points is NOT where you want to be sitting just two weeks in.


Game of the Week: FCC vs Poon Squad, 1v1 guiroma: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12907090

Now, I know that I am sharing an FCC game two weeks in a row, however, I did feel, with all neutrality, that this game was probably the most intreguing one out of the ones that finished this week. In this game, we see a well balanced distribution. The players are neck and neck, until Pardon is a able to finally get a double border on Andresso's income in Africa, and break down Andresso's stack in Spain. After that, the game swings into Pardon's favor, providing the "W" for the FCC.

Edited 3/3/2017 23:06:22

Why did Olympus even sign up for Clan League? I thought they already hit bottom previous season, but apparently they could embarass themselves even more!

Quick update:

Things continue to progress quickly for everyone except ACME, who is really slowing the group down. HYDRA drops a game to Poon Squad on Guiroma, thus tallying their third loss. FCC, HYDRA, and ACME are all really close right now. If anything, HYDRA and ACME should be the favorites to promote over FCC at this point, due to the fact that two 3v3s (one vs FBG, the other vs ACME), are most likely to be losses, but it is really too early to tell in a very close race:



As predicted, its really easy to tell there are two tiers of clan here, with ACME, FCC, and HYDRA in the top and Poon Squad, Olympus, and FBG in the bottom. You could even say that their are three tiers here:

Tier I: ACME, FCC, HYDRA
Tier IIa. Poon Squad, FBG
Tier IIb. Olympus

Olympus is only 13 points away from mathematically being eliminated from promotion.

Edited 2/20/2017 02:01:21

Honestly most of Hydra's and FCC's wins are still against the tiers IIa and IIb. We need to wait for the actual games to finish to see where it'll go.

Two of FCC's boot losses, one observed, one projected, were vs ACME, for a total of 8 points against them. It's fairly significant considering the tightness of the race.

Quick Update:



It seems things have become all the more interesting. Its becoming apparent that we can't assume that Hydra will be able to promote anymore. If anyone needs evidence, take a look at the Old Strat ME and the Guiroma 1v1 tournament. Milly has dropped games against both ACME and FCC, with a defeat at the hands of the strategic menace ACL tears and a suprising upset loss vs. sloppyfatginger. As it stands right now, Hydra has yet to win against any player/team from ACME and FCC, which, although early, is not a good sign. Meanwhile, FCC has dropped its 2v2 guiroma game vs ACME, and pardon continues to chug strong in volcano island after winning it for FCC in guiroma. Pardon99 and sloppyfatginger coming in clutch is really helping them to overcome Nauzhror's Boots. As for ACME, they may be slow, but they are definitely keeping up the pace with the other two clans, with wins against both FCC and HYDRA.

Poon Squad is a clan that is proving itself more so than ever as the upsetter. It has one 1v1 victory against each FCC, HYDRA, and ACME at this point. This keeps the races balanced, but the upper tiers should be wary of the players here, and underestimating them is a mistake.

FBG can not say much of the same. They are kind of lulling between poon squad and olympus. Its a fairly nonchalant spot to be, and it seems they are just idling around.

Olympus is now 8 points away from being the first clan mathematically eliminated from contention.

Edited 2/21/2017 22:19:55

The force of Hydra were team games, everyone knew it here in Hydra. Wait until team games are done against FCC and ACME, I am confident we can redeem ourselves there. I know for sure that I will give much efforts on what I can control (Deadman's RoR) in order for Hydra to get to stage 2.

Edited 2/21/2017 22:35:55