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Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/4/2017 02:27:04


Motoki - モトキ 
Level 61
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This is the official thread for Clan League 9's Division B.

Here are the participating clans (in alphabetical order):

1.) BIA
2.) GG
3.) MHunters
4.) SNinja
5.) VIW
6.) VS
7.) WG

The format for tournament start times is the same as Division A:
Start Date     Format     Tournament 
2/3            2v2        N/A
2/5            2v2        N/A
2/7            2v2        N/A
2/9            3v3        N/A
2/11           3v3        N/A
Relevant Links:
Clan League Google Doc - https://goo.gl/xT2dzg
Division A - https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244331-clan-league-9-division-official-thread
Q1 - https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244379-clan-league-9-division-q1-official-thread
Q2 - https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244354-clan-league-9-qualifier-q2-official-thread
Q3 - https://www.warlight.net/Forum/244404-clan-league-9-division-q3-official-thread
CL9 Predictions - https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet

I will update this thread weekly on every Friday.

Good luck to everyone!
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/8/2017 01:41:06


TBest 
Level 59
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Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/8/2017 01:46:22


(((Tabby Juggernaut)))
Level 53
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We cheer for Miezekatze Hunters!
- downvoted post by Onoma94
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 03:39:57


Motoki - モトキ 
Level 61
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Update #1 - February 10th:

Hello, guys and gals of Division B. As of right now only the 2v2 matchups have begun. The current matchups are listed below.



As you guys can see, all the matchups are currently ongoing. Once the first few games have finished be prepared for an in-depth post.

Thanks, Motoki
Hope everyone enjoys their weekend.

Edited 2/11/2017 03:43:46
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 03:41:18


TBest 
Level 59
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Image broken. Fixed it for you

You welcome :P

Edited 2/11/2017 03:45:09
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 12:33:36


Norman 
Level 57
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Hello

I just saw the following game on my games tab:
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12891654

Why am I in this game, please? Our lineup is supposed to be 90 + Cluster + hobo. Did I miss a substitution? Was this your doing, Emu Pub?
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 13:02:41


Edge
Level 60
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The link in the lineup of Cluster is directed to your profile. Not sure how this one will be handled, but i'm pretty sure that MotD and Beren said in an official thread, that every clan should check these links, so that everything is linked right, because the CLOT will create games based on these links and ofc mistakes can happen.

U (talking about M'Hunters as a clan) should have checked it and than u would have seen this mistake and would have been able to correct it before the CLOT was started for the EU games.

U definitely should write as fast as possible to MotD and Beren to report it and see how they will handle it.

Edited 2/11/2017 13:03:49
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 13:30:44


Norman 
Level 57
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You are telling me that your clan league leaders checked the links? Cluster is one of our rising stars and I don't see how me playing his clan league games builds helps building him up.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 13:36:52


Njord 
Level 61
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it does not matter if anyone did check anything, they should have

Edited 2/11/2017 13:38:50
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 13:40:05


Edge
Level 60
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Honestly. I haven't talked with Platinum about that, so i don't know if he checked it, but i can guarantee u, that this was the first thing i did when i heard that the clans should check the linked players.

But as i said, u or your clan should write to MotD and Beren, they are the only ones who can find a solution for this issue and especially MotD is able to tell u, if it's possible to stop the game and recreate it, so it has no influence on the season.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 15:15:19

linberson 
Level 59
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Ha, you are playing CL!
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/11/2017 18:29:05


Master of the Dead 
Level 63
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I just saw the following game on my games tab:
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12891654

Why am I in this game, please? Our lineup is supposed to be 90 + Cluster + hobo.
As Edge mentioned, it was due to an incorrect link to Cluster's profile.
I've fixed that and cleaned up all the games allotted. They should have received new games as well.

Please ensure that your clan has the correct player links. Copy/paste errors are inevitable due to the sheer volume of data that was entered into the sheet.

Edited 2/11/2017 18:30:43
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/13/2017 00:16:36


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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Predictions based on 89 respondents:
            1    2    3    4    5    6    7 mean   sd        
GG       83.1 10.1  3.4  0.0  0.0  3.4  0.0 1.34 0.99
Mhunters  9.0 40.4 25.8 14.6  5.6  2.2  2.2 2.83 1.30
WG        3.4 25.8 21.3 41.6  3.4  1.1  3.4 3.33 1.22
VS        2.2 18.0 38.2 24.7  7.9  7.9  1.1 3.46 1.23
Sninja    1.1  2.2  3.4 13.5 52.8 15.7 11.2 5.07 1.13
VIW       2.2  1.1  7.9  2.2 15.7 36.0 34.8 5.75 1.42
BIA       0.0  2.2  2.2  2.2 13.5 34.8 44.9 6.11 1.11

Not much that can be said about GG, right? Not even Masters got this many votes to win division A, so the respondents really seem convinced GG wins it and that promotions is safe (93.2%). If they don't promote, they either finish 3rd or ... 6th? (3 predictions each) So there's basically a 1 in 30 chance that they somehow fail all the way to relegation. Just remember that the liberal media gave Trump a smaller chance to the presidency. ;-)

For second place, it gets complicated. The difference between M'hunters and WG was not significant at the 5% level with a p-value of 9%. The difference for 3rd between WG and VS was not significant either. However, the difference between M'Hunters and VS is significant with a p-value of 0.9%. What does this tell us? The respondents are on average fairly confident that M'Hunters, WG and VS will finish 2nd to 4th, with the order to be determined, but M'Hunters significantly better than VS. This is also reflected in the predicted ranks, with M'Hunters taking most of the second place votes and cleaning up more than half of the first place votes not taken by GG. Still, just over half of the respondents (45 out of 89) predicted that M'Hunters would not promote, with 4 predicting relegation. This gives M'Hunters the largest variation in predictions among the (sub)top clans in this division.

WG gets some variable predictions as well, but focused on a few ranks: 2nd, 3rd and 4th. While they finish 3rd, although not significantly better than VS, their most predicted rank is 4th. It's important to notice though that just almost half of the respondents (44 of 89) predicted them in the top 3 with 29% predicting promotion with only 8% predicting them lower than 4th, including 4 respondents imagening relegation.

VS, contrary to WG finishes at rank 4 while receiving most votes on rank 3. The difference is obvious: 20% predicts promotion (compared to 29% WG) and 9% relegation (compared to 4.5% WG). So while they may be expected to be slightly better than WG by quite some respondents, it's clear that both their ceiling and floor are predicted to be lower than WG. Still, the difference is small and not significant here.

Sninja is pretty clear. More than half of the respondents predict them 5th with the others about equally split between better (inluding 3 respondents hinting at promotion) and worse (27% predict relegation). The difference with the clan behind them is significant.

VIW edges out BIA for 6th according to the predictions, but the difference for 6th between VIW and BIA is not significant. The clan splits the votes about equal between 7th, 6th and not relegating. The real difference with BIA is however that quite some respondents see VIW doing really well, with more than 10% predicting a top 3 finish. This high ceiling gives them the biggest variantion in predictions in this division. To avoid relagation, they'd have to beat a clan that is predicted to be significantly better than them though.

BIA ranks last in the prediction according to our panel of 89, but not significantly worse than VIW and with less than half of the votes putting them in this least favourable spot. Avoiding relegation altogether seems difficult though with only about 20% of the panel believing it's possible, most of those predicting 5th. Adding injury to insult, BIA is also the only clan in this division without any first place predictions.

Please see https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.
- downvoted post by [IM]YouMustBeKidding
- downvoted post by (((Tabby Juggernaut)))
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/13/2017 11:01:00

hobo
Level 60
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lol math wolf. all i gotta say to all that analysis is
there are lies, dam lies then there are statistics, lol
- downvoted post by (((Tabby Juggernaut)))
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/15/2017 17:16:09


Bigby 
Level 58
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No votes for first?!?! WTH?!?!? Oh well, I guess considering we backdoored our way into "B" it's forgivable..... We're just happy to have been nominated *sniff-sniff* ;-)
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/15/2017 17:46:07


TBest 
Level 59
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EDIT: Kidding put it in better words ;)

I can't remember if MathWolf asked for it or not, but it would be interesting to see the clans of the voters.

Edit: Thanks MoD, but I would love to see exact numbers. Although it may make it too little anonymous mayb :/

Edited 2/17/2017 02:38:07
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/15/2017 17:51:22


master of desaster 
Level 64
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* Respondents were from 24 different clans, including 2 clans not participating in Clan League. 30 respondents, mostly anonymous, did not report a clan. Clans with at least 3 respondents include (in alphabetical order) 101st, Apprentice, Blitz, CORP, FCC, Hydra, Icelandic Turtles, Lynx, Masters, Outlaws, VS.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/15/2017 19:15:06


[IM]YouMustBeKidding
Level 58
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I believe what TBest was asking for was more about how members of certain clans voted.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/15/2017 20:37:34

linberson 
Level 59
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I voted MH 3rd.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/15/2017 23:28:43


Kaerox
Level 58
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^
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/17/2017 05:59:31


ViralGoat 
Level 58
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yeah, we're not getting 1st place, but I'm damn sure not getting last place either. We're getting 5th or 6th place. Maybe 4th if things go right.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/17/2017 07:21:44


Norman 
Level 57
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My boys are complaining that BIA is mean. Apparently two of you guys ganged up on 90xxx in a tournament :(
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/17/2017 07:28:46


Quicksilver
Level 57
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Norman - why don't you send in your Felidae downvote army to downvote all BIA posts ;)
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/18/2017 04:09:43


Motoki - モトキ 
Level 61
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Update #2 - February 17th:

Hello, fellow members of group B! I hope the first weeks of clan league have been going well for everyone! :) As of right now, only 1 game has finished.

Finished Games Link:
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12843205 (BIA defeats VIW)

Congratulations to BIA for drawing first blood in Clan League 9: Division B!

BIA's 2v2 China team of Botanator and ViralGoat defeated the VIW team of Carlos Danger and AWOL Gls AJ. BIA was predicted to relegate by most of the voters so they must be glad that they can prove everyone wrong.

Current Standings:
Position     Clan                 Points     Max Points     Change In Position
1st          BIA                  4          240            ▲ 
2nd          GG                   0          240            =
2nd          MHunters             0          240            =
2nd          WG                   0          240            =
2nd          Sninja               0          240            =
2nd          VS                   0          240            =
7th          VIW                  0          236            ▼




Next update will be in a week, see you guys soon!
Best, Motoki

Edited 2/18/2017 04:20:15
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/18/2017 04:18:04


AWESOMEGUY 
Level 62
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Suing you for copyright infringement.
Clan League 9: Division B Official Thread: 2/20/2017 23:24:17


Cloud Strife 
Level 59
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That's appropriately weird.
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