Predictions based on 89 respondents:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 mean sd
GG 83.1 10.1 3.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 1.34 0.99
Mhunters 9.0 40.4 25.8 14.6 5.6 2.2 2.2 2.83 1.30
WG 3.4 25.8 21.3 41.6 3.4 1.1 3.4 3.33 1.22
VS 2.2 18.0 38.2 24.7 7.9 7.9 1.1 3.46 1.23
Sninja 1.1 2.2 3.4 13.5 52.8 15.7 11.2 5.07 1.13
VIW 2.2 1.1 7.9 2.2 15.7 36.0 34.8 5.75 1.42
BIA 0.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 13.5 34.8 44.9 6.11 1.11
Not much that can be said about GG, right? Not even Masters got this many votes to win division A, so the respondents really seem convinced GG wins it and that promotions is safe (93.2%). If they don't promote, they either finish 3rd or ... 6th? (3 predictions each) So there's basically a 1 in 30 chance that they somehow fail all the way to relegation. Just remember that the liberal media gave Trump a smaller chance to the presidency. ;-)
For second place, it gets complicated. The difference between M'hunters and WG was not significant at the 5% level with a p-value of 9%. The difference for 3rd between WG and VS was not significant either. However, the difference between M'Hunters and VS is significant with a p-value of 0.9%. What does this tell us? The respondents are on average fairly confident that M'Hunters, WG and VS will finish 2nd to 4th, with the order to be determined, but M'Hunters significantly better than VS. This is also reflected in the predicted ranks, with M'Hunters taking most of the second place votes and cleaning up more than half of the first place votes not taken by GG. Still, just over half of the respondents (45 out of 89) predicted that M'Hunters would not promote, with 4 predicting relegation. This gives M'Hunters the largest variation in predictions among the (sub)top clans in this division.
WG gets some variable predictions as well, but focused on a few ranks: 2nd, 3rd and 4th. While they finish 3rd, although not significantly better than VS, their most predicted rank is 4th. It's important to notice though that just almost half of the respondents (44 of 89) predicted them in the top 3 with 29% predicting promotion with only 8% predicting them lower than 4th, including 4 respondents imagening relegation.
VS, contrary to WG finishes at rank 4 while receiving most votes on rank 3. The difference is obvious: 20% predicts promotion (compared to 29% WG) and 9% relegation (compared to 4.5% WG). So while they may be expected to be slightly better than WG by quite some respondents, it's clear that both their ceiling and floor are predicted to be lower than WG. Still, the difference is small and not significant here.
Sninja is pretty clear. More than half of the respondents predict them 5th with the others about equally split between better (inluding 3 respondents hinting at promotion) and worse (27% predict relegation). The difference with the clan behind them is significant.
VIW edges out BIA for 6th according to the predictions, but the difference for 6th between VIW and BIA is not significant. The clan splits the votes about equal between 7th, 6th and not relegating. The real difference with BIA is however that quite some respondents see VIW doing really well, with more than 10% predicting a top 3 finish. This high ceiling gives them the biggest variantion in predictions in this division. To avoid relagation, they'd have to beat a clan that is predicted to be significantly better than them though.
BIA ranks last in the prediction according to our panel of 89, but not significantly worse than VIW and with less than half of the votes putting them in this least favourable spot. Avoiding relegation altogether seems difficult though with only about 20% of the panel believing it's possible, most of those predicting 5th. Adding injury to insult, BIA is also the only clan in this division without any first place predictions.
Please see
https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.
