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Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 01:18:16

Level 3
The subject line says it all -

1. How many people play Warlight every day?
2. How many new people join every day?

I'd be quite interested to know these answers.

Anyone have any opinions? Data?

Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 01:39:53

Ace Windu 
Level 56
Well, it's been asked many times before but as far as I know, Fizzer has never released any data about specific numbers of people using the site or anything like that. This is the closest we've gotten AFAIK

|> WarLight has five times as many active players now as it did when 2011 started. Although WarLight has been up since 2008, 2011 hosted more than four times as many WarLight games as all the other years combined! - From the "Warlight in 2011" blog post.

It's clear that Warlight is growing. The Kongregate stand-alone client was probably the biggest reason for this, I know I definitely noticed the influx just anecdotally.

I don't know if anyone could actually guess a reasonably accurate number for the user base, mostly because of the turnover of players and the people who just play together with a group of friends. Maybe someday Fizzer will release the figures, I'm as interested as everyone else!
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 02:01:54

Level 55
i think the greater question is: how much has myhandisonfire's list of ex-girlfriends grown in the last year?
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 06:43:02

Level 25
By 2, Gui and Dazed
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 06:48:25

Level 44
I'm sure there's more then that... WM like to share.. >.>
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 07:32:21

Level 50
Well I have about 1100 on my invite list after I have removed everybody inactive for 30 days or more, and I have only played with a fraction of the new guys so that gives some idea of the size
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 10:13:25

Level 57
Its grown alot in the last year, so warlight must be pretty big by now.
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 10:19:44

Level 60
Actually if anyone has time, yuo can do an experiment (though it'd be outdated by 6 months at least I think):

- create a new account with automatic invite list
- play in 50-100 open team games (no open seat requirements or low) untill you reach about 300 people on invite list
- open profiles of 100 random dudes
- check for stars on single-player level one

Fizzer said there were few hundred who had it (assume it's 500). Check what was the fraction out of your 100 random dudes and voila, that shouls give a nice estimate (if out of your random dudes less than 4-5 had stars, try again with 300 dudes to be effective)

Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 10:51:22

Level 56
^ that sounds like a lot of work, for highly unreliable data

the home page says that +5000 people like this on FB, so I guess the number of players is much more higher than 5k .
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 15:43:42

Level 55
stop looking through my windows, perrin
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/28/2012 19:39:25

Level 44
but but but...
Is Warlight growing? How big is it?: 1/29/2012 09:47:01

Level 22
You could achieve slightly more reliable data with less effort by comparing the invite lists from two players, and checking how many players appear in both.
If the lists have k1 and k2 players each, and there are n players total in WL, any given player would be on both lists with probability (k1k2)/n^2, so you would expect the intersection to be of size (k1k2)/n, so knowing the size of the intersection you can solve for n.
Of course, the probabilities are not independent, since active players are more likely to be in both lists, so the intersection will likely be larger than this predicts. Thus, this method will likely underestimate the number of players, but should still provide a nice lower bound, though I won't even try to figure out confidence intervals at the moment.
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