So bannana shake and I decided to play some gui roma.. we were winning untill grey began getting first order.. over and over again

turn 7-14 he gets first order.. 7 times in the row, is this like a new record or something??


http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6034999

YOU NEED LOTS OF SKILL TO GET FIRST ORDER THAT MANY TIMES!!

That's one way to make an excuse for losing.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5563836

9. should have won the game otherwise.

Good template brian imma use it

The chance of 7 firsts in a row is 0.5^7=0.78% or once in 128 games
The chance of 9 firsts 0.5^9=0.195% or once in 513 games
Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less

Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less

really? over the course of a few million games, shouldnt experimental probability equal theortetical probability? I'm sure it can happen in less obvious situations like you getting 9 first turns in a row against someone in the fog.

The chance of 7 firsts in a row is 0.5^7=0.78% or once in 128 games
The chance of 9 firsts 0.5^9=0.195% or once in 513 games

This is incorrect also. The probabilities are right but you're assuming that all games end in 9 turns, so it actually happens in fewer games than you think.

Edited 4/13/2014 23:30:59

Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less

The chance of it happening when it actually matters is exley exactly the same...

over the course of a few million games, shouldnt experimental probability equal theortetical probability?

No.

This is incorrect also. The probabilities are right but you're assuming that all games end in 9 turns, so it actually happens in fewer games than you think.

This calculation is also correct assuming chance of 7/9 firsts or more.

Edited 4/13/2014 23:47:11

In that first game the first order was switching between the Grey player and Bananashake each time. So, arguably, Banana got equally lucky with the order. The grey was not getting first order every time, just earlier than you. Still, frustrating -.-

in conclusion, you should do some banana shakes to bring you luck ;D