Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less

really? over the course of a few million games, shouldnt experimental probability equal theortetical probability? I'm sure it can happen in less obvious situations like you getting 9 first turns in a row against someone in the fog.

The chance of 7 firsts in a row is 0.5^7=0.78% or once in 128 games

The chance of 9 firsts 0.5^9=0.195% or once in 513 games

This is incorrect also. The probabilities are right but you're assuming that all games end in 9 turns, so it actually happens in fewer games than you think.

Edited 4/13/2014 23:30:59