this game is a bit meta, and went on mostly in our heads, which is why our moves look quite odd and extremely cautious: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5886004
West Russia and scand together are by far the most powerful multipick on the map. They flow well, hard to get to, hard to counter, and paired with central America or ant give you a chance of a turn 2 income 12. They are prime real estate. So summer picks them 1&2 and then organises the rest of her picks so that if I made them my 1&2 then she would be in a good position because she has a safe first bonus in central America and then picks the 2nd best multipick 4&5 and its counter 6th. Very standard, very good, very summery picks.
I thought she might do this and looked for a way to attack it. My prediction was this: turn 1&2 she goes west Russia and possibly her 3rd pick at the same time. turn 3 she makes a move into Norway, turn 4 she takes Svalbard, potentially with a decent size stack. my plan was this: by turn 2 take most of Greenland including danmark havn, just incase. It would be more efficient to leave it til turn 3 and then the leftovers from a 4v2 would be where i wanted them but the threat of her coming into danmark havn on turn 3 scared me. turn 3 complete Greenland and put anything left over on danmark havn, turn 4 go all in to Denmark.
Most plans do not work all the way up to turn 4, and this one was no exception. Summer knew that I knew that Russia and scand were an excellent combo and she knew something was up when she got both of them. Was I planning to counter her from Caucasus? That would have been one way to go, I might come back and analyse that later. Often when a player gets the best 2 territories on the map they assume they've been counterpicked and play slightly worse because theyre chasing shadows. Therefore sometimes it is acceptable to give up the best warlords and not counterpick them, knowing that the opponent will give away the small advantage of their better picks trying to counter the non existent counter. In this case scand/Russia are so so safe that even with a little chasing shadows summer knows she will still be better off. So she decides to forego the most efficient option (the one that I predicted) and instead tries for 11 income after 2 turns. Its unlikely but worth a shot.
We both unexpectedly bump into each other, but I have intel advantage and calculate that she must only have 8 income. I saw her 4v2 so I know she didn't use 3 3v2s on turn 2 to attempt 11income. From this point on we have a stand off which hurts her a lot more than me because I have decent expansion.