Timinators wins play out like a story. There is a strong story arc and a beginning middle and end. When he understands the requirements of a board he has the vision to play it out to a win without ever seeming like he is more than enough danger to entertain a viewer. From turn 0 he telegraphs to you how hes going to win and then follows his nose. I assume this is because he has played so many games he has had ample opportunity to spot the patterns that lead to wins. If you want to learn some of these patterns and how to play them out then these are the games to put in your playbook. Timi uses dunga's account in the first 2 games shown because hes too cool.http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5436640
2 Turn 11 income: Very simple, you put all three picks in or around the bonuses with 4 territories and at the end of turn 2 you have 11 income almost guaranteed. If this pick strategy is available on the board then much like a FTB you either pick it or pick to play against it, there is no middle ground. This board has another strategy defning piece of terrain; the supersafe cluster around australia. As soon as timi has an advantage (high income) he gets very aggressive, with a huge stack into malaysia on turn 3. A 2turn 11income makes a trade off, short term you get high income, mid term you get low income. The best way to make use of a short term advantage is playing very aggressively, to try and turn it into a long term advantage like clearing an enemy from an area. Timi is somewhat wrong footed when it turns out ulti isnt in australia, but notice timi isnt actually in any danger. His plan simply continues playing out, because it considered contingencies like finding only neutrals in aus, he made a small attack in SA. http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4647547
The supersafe cluster around australia. Clearly both players are going to have to pick Indo first and aus second. The question is what will the other 2, supporting picks be? Africa Vs Europe is, all things being equal, much easier for africa, even though africa typically gives lower income and worse expansion options. Thats because africa is easy to defend. Hold Algeria and Egypt and youre safe. This gives the player in africa the initiative because theyre not forced to chase attacking stacks like a european player is, they can expand or fight elsewhere. The fight in aus is eye catching but ultimately irrelevent. Watch how timi picks and plays the real africa vs europe story.http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4664032
Picking for safety. Here timi is back in his original account. South america & central america are very safe if played out a certain way, timi spots it and then does it. Its pretty much as simple as that. Timi's starting 3 are safe and dunga's arent so dunga has to forego caucasus and kill extra neutrals in africa, and ends up losing after getting the same income a little slower and at slightly higher cost.
Stepping it up a level with a game from timis new ladder run http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6330854
On this map there are a bunch of picking strategies in contention, so unlike the others its not as simple as spot the one that dominates the others through one simple positional querk. His observation is that with the top 3 he selects he can dominate the bottom half of the board by taking antarctica first to counter a potential 2 turn 10 income from indo/aus. He can then play africa vs eurasia with the advantage. We dont get to see that because he gets a counter pick he made, we see him play that out with a nicely timed ambush.
Conversley, when he loses its a shit show of confused bumbling and tail chasing as he flounders for an edge. Definitely as entertaining as the wins.http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5621253
A totally acceptable picking strategy chosen by both players. Get contact on turn 0 and a cluster of a 4income 5 territory bonus to back it up. Its a very sound strategy that works especially well when its unexpected and the other guy has his 2 picks unclustered. Unforunatley timi takes a totally unjustified swing on turn 6 and we get to see lawm play out the game almost without fault. Seriously, each of lawms turns is bang on the money, without relying on prediction.http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4990810
The board has way too many options and neither timi nor i can see a picking strategy that dominated long term. Timi, confused, picks almost the same as mother wucky but slightly worse and goes for the easily countered central russia bonus first.
So it seems the best way to beat timi is pick the same as him and wait for him to do something stupid.