Piggy wanted me to post this because he liked the game and analysis a lot.
Picks: Honestly they're not my best. I wish I picked Antarctica first, then SEA/Mid East. Regardless I did get my first 3 so my initial plan which was to go for 2-turn 11 and have a good offensive advantage vs the vulnerable bonuses in Africa/Russia.
Turn 4: I make a critical error. Szew would call it a misclick, but honestly I can't tell you why I did this. I lost confidence or something, but I figure not to bust WR blindly out of worries that Longhouse could be Central Russia, or something stupid along those lines. It's stupid, and even when clicking commit I realized it was a mistake. I did drink before this game, so perhaps I can blow it off on being slightly tipsy.
Turn 5: Okay it's not so bad. He blockaded Africa, so his superior income can only work on 1 front. This is good. Now this is where I begin pulling a Timinator. He's sealed himself off from 3 of my income, and to get to the rest he has to take Georgia and Iran. Longhouse has the income advantage here so I'm thinking that he'll either get aggressive against me or play it safe. If he gets aggressive I don't really have many ways to win, so I figure he may play safe. Hitting Ufa here is good if he splits, I'm really hoping he sends a 2 or something to Western Kazakhstan expecting me to focus on Georgia, thereby allowing me to bust Ufa.
Turn 6: I'm getting a little worried now. I didn't break Ufa and I need a double border on WR or else I'm not going to be very successful. I could try my luck and just plow into Ufa first order, but this has a 50% chance of working. I think it's clearly the most obvious choice. But failing means game over. Not only that but he can take West Africa if I don't land in South Africa. 60% chance to take out that wasteland. It's a bit better than 50/50 and if I fail to take the wasteland it's not necessarily game over. I'll move back to Georgia because if he does focus Georgia he'll want to take Iran, and my hit of 11 troops may prevent him from taking Iran.
Turn 7: Best possible outcome. I broke into Africa, his stack in Russia is misplaced, and I have Georgia back. Again the most obvious move here is a first turn hit into East Africa. I'm not sure it's a good idea. Again I have no order priority, and leftovers could prevent me from breaking East Africa and I lose Georgia. It's time to press for a mistake. He'll either mess up in Russia or Africa I think. I'm not 100% sure he used his OD last turn so I make sure to delay as much as possible and hit both fronts.
Turn 8: Keep Russia ensured broken, and use order priority to go towards Congo. I can sacrifice AA so long as I get Congo to ensure an EA break.
Turn 9: Congo is mine, and I kept AA by adding 1 to prevent 2v1 taking it.
I'm never going to be as consistent as Timinator is when it comes to predicting and playing well, but I have streaks where I play games like this and it's weird. I guess you could say it's part of developing as a player. You begin to play people and scenarios over and over again that eventually you start to realize: Okay this move would benefit me the most, so my opponent is probably going to make sure to prevent it. Let's do something that can benefit me if he takes away my best option.
I'm going to sleep now.