A few days ago Lolowut asked me which of my games was best in terms of skill on both sides. I had to pick a recent multiday game with a top player, so I settled on this game with dunga as it reflects top tier games well and I lost (I think analysing your own win publically is a bit vulgar).
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3530797
He also requested a post mortem, here it is:
Picks: This game centres around the very safe SA/CA combo being split in half with back ups in E Asia. I opt for safety in Central Russia, which is probably too cautious. I would struggle to complete it while keeping an E China combo from being completed first. Dunga makes the risky SA/Eafrica combo. It is a risk because if I had first pick, my SA pick would counter africa and CA. He also risks getting all 3 of his top picks, and having poor expansion opportunities in a game that will be decided by expansion.
My plan was to complete russia, and then use South East Asia to deny dunga indonesia until I complete SEA. The 2 problems with this plan were that SEA is a horrible bonus. It is very vulnerable to E China and it is long and thin, making it inefficient to complete.
The other is that counterpicks work a lot better when there isnt another area where your enemy can make you fight, because usually a counterpick will cost the counterpicker more in the short term. The benefit comes after you complete your 3 starting bonuses whereas your enemy cant and your income advantage starts to be decisive. I have to constantly worry that if dunga pushes me out of malaysia my position will be much worse than his for a long time to come. I am tied to defending it which leaves me exposed on the other side of the map.
Dungas plan is to complete E africa efficiently and then fight me wherever he finds me with a safe bonus and the initiative on his side. This is a much nicer plan =D
In the game I spend too much income killing neutrals. Attacking malaysia turn 2 is unecessary, if dunga completes indo first (which is unlikely) we will have equal income and I a bigger stack, which is winning anyway. A stack on thailand is also good against Echina which is much more likely to be dungas first bonus. Attacking mexico is pointless. Attacking colombia guarantees we have equal income and I have smaller stacks, for no good reason. I overstretched myself by being aggressive in 2 places at once. Then the weakness of SEA shows itself, and the weakness of CA being less flexible against SA shows itself and it is gg.
This is a game at the limit of my understanding, so I didn't criticise dungas moves. He thinks about games very differently to me so hopefully he will come and comment too.
Thanks for your question lolowut,
Piggy