Recently I have been struggling with a new kind of problem in my warlight games. I have been trying to find picks and moves that are best even if my opponent predicts them and counters them perfectly. I can say with confidence this is a bad way to play and has led me to a lot of losses =/. I think I started playing this way because the ladder punishes me so harshly for losing a single game against a weaker opponent, but fuck what the ladder thinks, I am just going to have to take the losses.

Anyway I found a few game theory articles on Wikipedia and they helped me understand the problem and deal with it. Basically most positions in WL are intransitive and I was trying to play them like there was a dominant strategy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_dominance

Previously chess writers have been a big part of my inspiration, but I think I would like to learn more game theory. Do you use any game theory in your games? Can you recommend stuff to read?

Thanks, merry christmas everyone.

The only time i use game theory is when i play in role playing games or in ffa via alliances. So far, I think it helps me survive longer, but i still have a long way to go in winning.

Often it comes down to reading your opponent's moves, especially when you know their play style. However, sometimes, you can over-think situations and you're not always sure how deep your opponent annalysed the position and his options.
The first step is to find the best and most logical move, followed by what would counter or break even with it. If none, then go for it. If there is a counter, you need to figure out what other moves would make the counter option a bad choice. This can go on for several steps. The better the opponent, the more it pays off. Against unknown or more casual players, this can backfire as they may not have annalysed half of what you saw. Don't rush to win, create a small advantage and sit on it until it starts paying off by itself.

Don`t try to play the best move, because the only way to play the best move is by knowing what you opponent will play, which you won`t,even though sometimes you might guess correct.. Instead do what`s most Important for you, How do you improve your position? Also remember that makeing your opponents position worse is also an improvement for you ;)

I'm serious with it, Sun Tzu's Art of War sometimes helped me, especially about when and how deceive showing strength and weakness but induce wrong answers.
Go game, about how map control works.

Everything else is a personal understanding and mere counting : how much is safe, how much enough to break, how much to be dominant locally or how a possible unbalance can't allow the opponent to hold in another scene...
Another thing : use probability to favor some key numbers to stack attacks or defenses, because if your remainder is, say, 0.7 damage, you're about to gain 0.3 on your potential most of the time ; if it's 0.4, this technically spoils 0.4 damage potential except if it's worth the risk... It seems dumb to say it this way but it makes it easy to decide between a defense with 7 or 8, an attack with 12 or 13, or small details like this.

i tend to over-think.

So, when i'm focused, i play the right way for 90% of my moves, dont trying to predict my opponent.

The theory I use is simple :

- who has an advante has more chances to become winner

So pick-study is my favorite activity.

The other theory i like is time & space management, which a lot of players tend to forget :

- ex :use 3 armies to take swiss now or use 1 to take it later ?

math says that this turn i cant use 3 armies to fight BUT i'll get 2 more next turn
if i do the other way i 'll fight with 3 more this turn but i wont get the bonus n i'll need another army next turn. SCENARIO A : is -1 respect SCENARIO B

that's the reason why i hate spain : u need so many troops (usually 18) e so many turns ( at least 4) that u ll have a real gain only after 8 turns that u started your conquer from portugal.

Why you want to understand me - to be dominate?

* dominant

Hi. I use The Art of War as well as the other guy.
Also Perform a SWOT analysis: Strength (Good things), Weakness (am I over extending, leaving reinforcments behind etc) , Oppertunity (what will this allow me to do), Target (what's my aim-both strategic and tactical).
Also I study Psychology to help determine how to break a player. There are several articles online about the game Diplomacy that are helpful in this respect.

Ilumeo, I don't think your stats make you a strong advocate for whatever it is that you're doing.

John, was it necessary to be that rude? Alteast he is trying, heck from the sounds of it he is putting about 1000% more time into planning then I do. No need to diss him cause his stats are Newbish.

x just chastised me for over-thinking. Here's my checklist of what I do when I play seriously:

List out all knowledge I have and don't have (just as important)
What are my opponent's probable moves?
From those moves, which is the most advantageous?
From those moves, which is the most likely he will do? (Play the person, not the hand)
What are my possible moves?
From those moves, which is the most advantageous?
From those moves, which is the most obvious?
What's the worst case scenario for this move?

This is a simple list, but it's hard to discipline yourself to do it each time. I do this list when I'm making an important move. Sadly, when I don't do this list, I typically will lose (against good opponents).

I don't know about you guys, but I like to mix expected moves with unexpected moves. I think predictability has a lot to do with the game, so I try and make my moves unpredictable when I can.

I also think there are three ways to play: Safe, Aggressive, Creative. I like to mix all 3 instead of going one way or the other. Dependent on my opponent I may go a certain way.

Sir Lolowut, if their are indeed those three types of play, then I don't think I'm playing.
But yeah, I might have to start copy and pasting into a large notepad file all the useful each turn routines people go through, and then start doing them myself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM3rTU927io&list=EC6EF60E1027E1A10B

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Who cares about planning ?? It's all just intuition

Seriously...sometimes I don't get man and their problems on trying to fixate on such things, give in to your FEELINGS :D

I agree with Aranka, though a look or two at the analysis graph and a minute or two to think about your opponents situation is never wrong either.