Anyone familiar with futures? I have some futures expiring. Last quarterly earnings report I fully expected GOOG to beat earnings. Stock was at 770. I was going to wait for the earnings report and divest the next day. Instead I got burned and the value of my options decreased $30,000. Now GOOG is back to 730+. The 4th quarter earnings report is scheduled for the 22nd. My options expire the 23rd. Should I

a) Divest before the report and take the cash (about $30000+) to play around with DOW and NASDAQ as a daytrader
b) Gamble on a positive earnings report and try to turn the $30K into $50k and risk losing $20K+.
c) Divest beforehand and buy new options: stradle the earnings report by going long and short with equal amounts expecting a big post-earnings report move.
d) Divest beforehand and bring the money back to Taiwan to have wife buy and sell real estate (can make $4K to $10k per sale)

b

a) I wouldn't recommend it, at this point there is very little for daytraders to do with automatic transaction systems running around. Also I am one of the guys that do not believe you can beat market long-run as a day-trader.

b) Well, if your investment strategy was based around beating expected earnings you might have some crucial information about the report. If you don't, stock plummitting before a report should indicate you should avoid risk.

c) That seems like the most reasonable move, especially since you had american type options (I assume) so they should not be as expensive as they were before. Since you are expecting a positive report I'd suggest some sort of strap strategy, which is basically straddle with higher income coming from rising prices.

d) A return 10k for 4k? Just combine c with d and you are golden :) Strap on GOOG and invest in whatever it is your wife does.

P.S. If it is possible, try to observe the differences in prices between call/put european options that expire on 22nd and 23rd, that should give an approximate representation of market expectations from that report.

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/319281

An example of the strategy. My appetite for risk is a bit low. I think I will just take my beating from Q3 and be happy the stock has recovered as much as it has. The time to cash out was at 770. My greed got the best of me then: I wanted to buy a house in a certain neighborhood and needed the Q3 earnings report to beat forecasts (as nearly all analysts on record expected) to squeek out another $15k or more.

I think the best type of trading is spot trading. Have enough COH to pounce when an opportunity presents itself. Having sufficient cash available to make meaningful investments is the most troubling part of this strategy though.

im' just nuts about juggs
why don't you invest in them?

that is an awful joke.

Who is that guy?

Xxx are you trying to be me? Because my special brand of stupidity is tradmarked.

Also i would divest a d take what you can now then watch what happens after the 22nd and find a new thing to invest in

take hellbenders advice, hes a market analyst wiz

I'd also do what hellbender says.

Gui, you evil vulture, how dare you accuse me of inhumanity on that dead children thread, all the while participating in this decadent, destructive sport? If you have more money than you know what to do with, there are countless philanthropic ventures you could support.

Remind me, which of us is the nihilist?

You. I'm a capitalist ;)

The machinery of capitalism is oiled by the blood of its workers. On meaningless issues you invoke phony philosophical banalities, but where is your humanism when it comes to anything that actually has an impact? Oh wait, money. Something something ayn rand

^^ tunnel vision. I view a world that is 3D. Your 1D worldview makes for facile banter, but it ignores reality.

I think you shouldn't be speculating on a market that exists somewhere within its own rectum, for the purposes of increasing your already substantial material wealth, the probability of which is predicated on exacerbating the suffering of human beings who actually exist in your 3 hallowed dimensions. Instead you could make charitable or semi-charitable investments which could have a positive, long-term effect on people who are less fortunate than you.

but haha that's just silly old sociopathic x, considering the results potential actions will have on others ;)

THREAD SUMMARY

GUI: Hey everyone. You already know that I'm much smarter than you, but did you realize that I'm richer too? My nick name is The Wall Street Kid.
SZEW: Ahem. Smarter than me? I think not.
GUI: It's cool. We can both be smart. Here, put your hand on my back. Go ahead. Look, I'll do the same. Fine, I'll go first. See, I put my hand on your back, then I rub it up and down. See. Isn't that nice? Now you go. NOW YOU GOOOOO!!!!
SZEW: No.
XXX: Guys. Guys. Guys. Guys.
HELL BENDER: Hey Guys! Guys! Guys! Hey Guys! I'm smart.
EVERYONE: This was the easiest joke ever.
ARTIST FORMERLY KNOWN AS X: Gui, I have to say something. I hate you.
GUI: That's cute ;)
FORMERLY X: No, seriously. I hate you. But I've grown too. Haha, just kidding ;)

JRUSS: And now you all see how clever I truly believe myself to be because only I know the truth about my interpretation of warlight's dimwits.
XXX: Your image is so similar to a movie star, since miniature icons are so unclear.
JRUSS: I am so flattered. I am a bit narcissistic. Every website I am on I make sure people see how truly handsome I think I am. My favorite pose is when I stare over the frame of my glasses with great passion, which must certainly evoke jealousy and lust in the viewer.
10 YEAR-OLD CHILD: I think your eyes remind me of the creepy pervert who tried to lure Billy to get in his car after school a couple weeks ago.
JRUSS: Stupid kid, what do you know about cheap Capt Jack Sparrow impersonations? I am the most handsome man on warlight, facebook, my big bathroom mirror, and my own blog, which everyone who only reads wl blogs, porn sites and sports news universally acclaims as great writing.
ACTUAL LITERATURE PHD STUDENT: But I've always found your imitation of Hemingway to be less effective and overwrought, while your conclusions can be trite and gimmicky.
JRUSS: What do you know? I've already published. And I have a devoted fan club.
ACTUAL LITERATURE PHD STUDENT: Where? Who is in your club?
JRUSS: Well, I published on my blog of course. And my mom is my greatest supporter.
10 YEAR-OLD CHILD: Me too. I have a blog about cookies and my mom thinks it's great.

I mean... it's true. My mom does think I'm awesome.

and i do enjoy cookies