(Warning, my English sucks)

Link: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3520215

Background: piggy left his only bonus guarded with only a 4, and attacked Billy with ~50% force at Western Russia. Turned out he has made a very good decision.

Background's Background: I'm a newbie, to learn, I think I should start to analyze how the best players move. Therefore I need to analyze a replay from the Best player vs another good player. So this should be a good pick.

All questions are related to Turn 4.
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Section A: piggy's part
Question A1: Why didn't piggy defend Africa?
Question A2: Why didn't piggy attack South America instead?
Question A3: Why didn't piggy delay his attack?
Question A4: Why didn't piggy attack west russia (Ufa) with full force? Why attacked with only 6? WHY?
Question A5: Why didn't piggy defend East Russia & expand somewhere else on turn 4?
Question A6: What would the outcome be if piggy made a wrong guess?

Section B: Billy's part
Question B1: Why Billy didn't attack Africa?
Question B2: Why Billy attacked East Russia?
Question B3: Why didn't Billy delay his attack?
Question B4: Why Billy used a blockage without adding defence?

Section C: Area of Focus
Question C1: Is Asia the top priority on turn 4?
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Highly appreciate if some top players can answer my questions above.

Here are my noob answers:

Question A1: Why didn't piggy defend Africa?
Answer A1:
i) Africa was his only bonus, and Nigeria is one of the most important territory in the map. Piggy would assume that Billy would assume that piggy, as a WarLight Master, would put high enough amount of troops guarding Nigeria. Therefore Piggy assumed that Billy would put away the plan of attacking Africa.
ii) Piggy assumed that Billy would focus on Asia, since Asia is the fat meat, with Egypt being a waste land of 10, Asia is the promised land. Piggy assumed that Billy by no means would give up Asia
iii) And even if Billy took Nigeria, Piggy could still fast expand in East Russia (Well ... -_- I dont believe so)
Damn Piggy really knew that Billy wont attack Nigeria!

Question A2: Why didn't piggy attack South America instead?
Answer A2:
i) Suppose piggy knew that Billy would blockage Brazil with a 4. Here were his choices for attacking SA:
choice 1) Add 4 at Nigeria to make it 8, then attacked Brazil with 7. While defend East Russia (Omsk) by adding the remaining 5 to make it a 10.
result 1) Piggy will able to take South America, while not losing East Russia. However Piggy wouldn't gain much advantage since he still has to fight at South America, while losing troop count at Asia.
choice 2) Full force attacking South America, giving up Asia.
result 2) Asia is a large meat, so probably shouldn't give up Asia. Therefore invalid choice.

ii) Suppose piggy didn't knew how many troops Billy will add on Brazil, and here were his choices for attacking SA:
choice 1) Add 4 at Nigeria to make it 8, then attacked Brazil with 7. While defend East Russia (Omsk) by adding the remaining 5 to make it a 10.
result 1) Too risky if Billy added some troops on Brazil. That would guarantee a loss of troops
choice 2) Full force attacking South America, giving up Asia.
result 2) Asia is a large meat, so probably shouldn't give up Asia. Therefore invalid choice.

By combining the reasons of i) & ii), I guess that attacking South America while giving up Asia is not a wise choice

Question A3: Why didn't piggy delay his attack?
Answer A3:
Damn this question is tough! Why? Why? Piggy could easily delay by distributing one unit at Tomsk and then move it to Omsk.
Why? Probably because Piggy wanted to attack first before any new defencing troops moving in!
i) If Billy hasn't increased the troop count at Ufa:
It would be an even attack of using 6 units to attack the defending 5 units. Both lost the same amount of troops if Piggy is able to attack before any new defending units arrived. So piggy didn't delay the attack.
(Hey!!!!! But if Piggy was assuming that Billy wont add troops at Ufa, then probably Billy would add troops at Brazil! Maybe Piggy is expecting Billy will on hold on both Ufa & Brazil & goto expand?)
ii) If Billy has increased the troop count at Ufa, and decided to guard:
Damn it would be a loss to Piggy. Not a big loss tho if sending only 6
iii) If Billy has increased the troop count at Ufa, and decided to attack Omsk with full force, and moved even before piggy's first move:
Damn it's the best possible result and Piggy has made it

Question A4: Why didn't piggy attack west russia (Ufa) with full force? Why attacked with only 6? WHY?
i) Assuming Billy attacked with full force, i.e. 12 units. By defending with 5+9=14 units, Piggy would able to kill 10 of Billy's units. That made Billy with only 3 men left. 6 would be enough to capture Ufa
ii) Assuming Billy didn't attack & haven't got any more defender, it would be an even attack of using 6 units to attack the defending 5 units. Um well this doesn't make sense cause Piggy won't be able to gain any piece of the cards in turn 4! Especially not adding units at Ufa would imply that Billy would add units at Brazil and could attack Nigeria!
WHY WHY WHY? I have no idea. Unless Piggy is really a god and knew that Billy would attack with full force and knew that Billy's first move will be happened before Piggy's first move. Would some experienced players mind to help me out in this question with a logical answer?

Question A5: Why didn't piggy defend East Russia & expand somewhere else on turn 4?
Answer A5: At turn 4 Piggy couldn't expand at Africa safely without seeing Billy blockage himself at Brazil. So Asia was the only focus, and it wouldn't be safe to expand at East Russia as well at that moment.

Question A6: What would the outcome be if piggy made a wrong guess?
Answer A6: if Billy took Nigeria, and Piggy couldn't capture Ufa, then Piggy could still fast expand in East Russia (Well ... -_- I dont believe so)
Damn. Piggy risked so much by attacking with only 6 and guarding Nigeria with only 4.

Question B1: Why Billy didn't attack Africa?
Answer B1: Billy would assume that piggy, as a WarLight Master, would put high enough amount of troops guarding Nigeria. It could be better to focus on Asia.

Question B2: Why Billy attacked East Russia?
Answer B2: With East Russia cleared, Billy would gain immerse advantage in expanding in Asia, especially Egypt is a wasteland which would delay Piggy's invasion into middle east, while Central America is still safe in foreseeable future.

Question B3: Why didn't Billy delay his attack?
Answer B3: Seeing piggy reinforced Omsk in turn 3, Billy would assume that Piggy would do the same again to delay the attack, therefore it could be better to attack before any reinforcement from the defender side. (This answer still doesn't make much sense to me, could someone help me out?)

Question B4: Why Billy used a blockage without adding defence?
Answer B4: Billy was confident about Piggy wont attack Brazil. Because Nigeria & Brazil were a famous units stacking border, both side would hold the attacks....

Section C: Area of Focus
Question C1: Is Asia the top priority on turn 4?
Answer C1: The upper Asia only got one wasteland, the lower Asia's wastelands at indonesia & Australia have also reduced the chance of the attacks from below, plus Egypt being a wasteland made Asia extra beneficial to long term.

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Once again I'm sry for my bad English, and hope that someone could help to answer my noob questions :)

One clarification, Piggy attacked with 100% of his troops. He was just fortunate enough to attack second and benefitted accordingly.

Had Piggy drawn first attack it would have likely gone in the other direction with Billy taking the territory.

Oh thanks, I'm new to this and I didn't know that I can mouse over the attack order to see the original army sent.

Had Piggy drawn first attack it would have likely gone in the other direction with Billy taking the territory.

In that case, why didn't piggy delay his attack?

Don't need to mouse over, just the fact that all 6 remaining armies attacked means that he did not use 50%. If he had, only 3 of the 6 would have attacked (the percentages apply to the number of armies left, not the initial total).

As for why he didn't delay, you would have to ask him. My guess would be that he assumed Billy would attack Nigeria so he did the unexpected. Instead, Billy also did the unexpected but lost the coinflip for first attack.

Wouldn't giving up Nigeria = suicide, even if Piggy won the Ufa battle?

Essentially both thought the other would deploy in Africa.

You must realise what both sides saw from picks, there was no way piggy could be certain that Billy was in Scandinavia, if he was in somewhere like Antarctica or SE Asia, by eliminating Billy from West Russia he would have Russia free to himself as safe bonuses.
He attacked first order because he though Billy might try to dodge first order and break West Africa. i.e. Billy would move into Vorkuta so he was still bordering Central Russia, missing piggy's stack, staying alive, and then he would also break West Africa.
Billy thought the same, if he eliminated piggy from Russia, he would have it safe and to himself, as he knew all of piggy's picks.
Billy did the same reason for first order and piggy, stop him dodging the stack.
Billy blockaded because he was expecting piggy to heavily deploy in Africa, but not try to take Brazil off him. If you look at the bonuses around West Africa, the only non-wastelanded one is North Africa, so not very good use of that stack in Nigeria.

Hope this helps :)

Thanks hedja for the explanation! Now I understand more about their thoughts :) I haven't thought about dodge the stack. It's obviously a risky move to attack first....

I need to analyze a replay from the Best player vs another good player

Then you picked the wrong game XD billy sucks. Look at ladder games; Zaeban's and [WM] szeweningen's are the most instructive.

I think between you and hedja you have answers to all of your questions. It was basically a good guess.

Um, A la recherche is me. And if you have questions about any of my other games, do ask, I like talking about warlight.

"I like talking about not having a life"

see, what I meant, piggy? everyone analyses every click of your trackpad. Sure must be great to be master race. :/

Um, A la recherche is me. And if you have questions about any of my other games, do ask, I like talking about warlight.

I do have another question.

Would losing Nigeria at turn 4 enough to make Piggy lose? Why and why not?

Thanks for the replies.

For best player, yes I'm referring to piggy, and as well as self proclaimed best player billy(hehehehe)

Well if he lost Nigeria, what would happen instead? That implies Billy would have deployed less in Russia, so Piggy would have a different size stack in Russia, Billy's stack in Africa would also make a large difference.

However most probably yes, as Piggy would have no bonus compared to Billy having scan, I would expect Piggy to do the same move and take Central Russia, probably blockade Congo with part of his income. Not sure if billy would go for straight elimination in west Africa of Piggy, or go towards Piggy in Central Russia.

I think it depends on what Piggy does in Africa, if he tries to run or blockade it, he has less income to threaten Billy in Scan, if he deploys all to Russia, then he will give away Africa and probably get eliminated. There are too many variables to know who will win, but depending on the next 2-3 turns and if Piggy breaks Scan and stays alive in Africa is what will make the difference.

Probably, though not for definite. If he went all in on africa I would have had a chance.

Thanks! Piggy you really are a risk taker... or a mind reader :)

Even games between players well familiar with all game mechanics usually come down to mind games and gut feel, unless you are Szeweningen!