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Sophia's Match #11: 1/24/2015 02:29:26

The Flaming Weed
Level 55
Match #9:

My first loss in this series. gk's picks in SA and S Af were set so that I would have trouble if I started nearby, and instead of playing it safe and taking WR first. . . well. Bad things happened. After being eliminated from both places I tried to think of some way to survive, but his presence in SEA made it impossible.

Match 11 can be found here, Feel free to join.

Edited 1/24/2015 17:25:53
Sophia's Match #11: 1/24/2015 16:51:26

Level 59
Here's the loss, not surprised you didn't post it:

i call bullshit on this whole thing. first off, going for WR first wouldn't have been any more safe than going for EAfrica, except for in retrospect. you had no idea where he was. but that's small potatoes. that's just illustrating my point about these awful posts.

you got out-picked and outplayed because you were matched against a worthy opponent for the first time. anyone can appear to be a master against someone who isn't very good. Just like anyone can appear smart when talking to an idiot.

your holier-than-thou tone while being a mediocre player is beginning to irritate. if every mediocre player posted every one of their games, the forum would cease to be a forum. there is nothing to learn from your games. they aren't interesting. you have no explanations, because you have no ideas. and you are doing a disservice to lesser players who think you might actually be good.

i'd recommend to you and to anyone who is actually looking to improve to look at the top 1v1 ladder games. watch them like a movie, and watch them repeatedly.
Sophia's Match #11: 1/24/2015 17:25:16

The Flaming Weed
Level 55
Not posting it was accidental. Thanks for reminding me; I'll edit the original post to show it.
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 00:58:09

Level 56
you got out-picked

I don't agree with this statement. Yes gk won from picks but that doesn't mean that his picks were good or even better than Sophia's. The south africa pick(the reason he won) loses him the game if he gets 1,4,5 which is a likely scenario against a different set of picks to Sophia's. Playing against ant with 1,2,4 is also a very bad position from what I can see.

Edited 1/25/2015 01:20:49
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 02:39:20

Level 47
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 03:57:30

Level 59
that doesn't mean that his picks were good or even better than Sophia's

yes that's exactly what it means...

i'm curious about your 1,4,5 scenario. it's not as if he didn't get that 1,4,5 because of pick order. sophia would have had to take completely different picks. so what picks are you envisioning that would have left him there?
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 16:45:11

Level 56
yes that's exactly what it means...

I think it is very possible to win on picks without having the better picks. An example would be winning a game with a blind counter that could have easily gone wrong if your opponent is not where you predicted them to be.

so what picks are you envisioning that would have left him there?

Some of these might not be good options and there could be a few that I have missed:

1 S.America 2 SEA 3 CA 4 CR 5 E.Africa (6 S.Africa) - 50% chance of 1,4,5
1 SEA 2 S.America 3 CA 4 Ant (5 CR 6 WR) - 50% chance of 1,4,5 50% chance of 1,2,4
His own picks - 50% chance of 1,4,5

1 SEA 2 CR 3 S.America 4 CA 5 Ant (6 E.Africa) - 100% chance 1,2,4
1 Ant 2 S.America 3 SEA 4 CR (5 E.Africa 6 WR) - 100% chance 1,2,4

To be clear I don't disagree that gk is the better player, just that in this game him winning with a risky wasteland pick does not mean that he outpicked or outplayed Sophia.
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 17:14:40

Level 40
just that in this game him winning with a risky wasteland pick does not mean that he outpicked or outplayed Sophia.
So how did he win? Luck? That's bullshit, he outplayed her
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 17:25:06

Level 51
Report - me winning sophias match #4, she eventually got booted, but i had a significant advantage in this game and was most likely going to win.
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 17:28:45

Level 56

Here is a scenario for you to think about:

There are two players, Player A and Player B.

Player A wins a 1v1 ladder game against Player B.

They both pick the same 1 and 2.
There is a counterable ftb on the board.
Player A picks the counter as pick number 3 and safe or fast income as pick 4
Player B picks the ftb as 3 and 4 and the counter as 5
It is clear that Player A has won on picks.

Now make them play an anonymous round robin vs 10-20 other players. Same template, same board. They both make the same picks as in the ladder game. Player B attains a much higher winrate than player A because his picks are more versatile, while player A's picks only work against one set of picks.

(This is assuming they are of the same or similar skill level to each other and to the players in the round robin.)

Who made the better picks?

Edited 1/25/2015 17:31:23
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 17:45:51

Level 57
Calling West Russia safer than East Africa is still a strange analysis. I'm not sure about the Africa counter but Sophia's picks were certainly lacking safety. I guess Pip's picks 1-3 were quite an obvious choice to gain some safe and fast income. For this reason the 1,4,5 doesen't seem that unlikely.

Edited 1/25/2015 17:51:29
Sophia's Match #11: 1/25/2015 17:56:02

Level 58
What is being done in Africa ? Seahawk's picks were known by now. I would keep my 3s armies in South Pole for Antarctica to defend myself. Taking China with full production will be worth it. China is a good bonus.
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