Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/19/2011 03:23:46 |
crafty35a
Level 3
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No map will be perfectly balanced, but I don't think your method assures a good balance, either. The win % numbers are averaged across all games, meaning your opponent could be anywhere. There could easily be two bonuses with even win % numbers across all games, but one happens to be stronger when matched up against a particular bonus with similar stats.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/19/2011 03:28:02 |
Perrin3088
Level 49
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Idk.. win% can also be relative to the other locations.. IE W.Rus is the highest %, but would be coutnered by the opponent having a good start spot in Caucasus..
means say you get 1 high 1 med 1 low win percent spots.. you just had your high win spot ruined by his low win spot, and then he knows you aren't in locations with a higher win ratio such as indo-ant-scand-E.china-India while all he could remove your possible locations from would be low percentage spots, such as W-E US, Canda, E.Russia-Europe-S.Africa etc.
you could provide that a persons 3 spots would add up to a certain win%.. and both players have roughly the same.. in which case the same scenario woudl case similar problems.. Caucasus is 39% win rat, while W.Rus is 57%, that means that you just canceled out one of his bonus, with conceivably 18% win rate difference in your favor, just by luck of the draw
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/19/2011 03:39:31 |
crafty35a
Level 3
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Right, that's pretty much exactly what I was trying to say, but you explained it in a lot more detail. Thanks for that.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/23/2011 05:06:33 |
Pinkbladder
Level 60
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Stop reading after the comment where you posted the results, so maybe someone else pointed out the glaring error, but one thing sticks out that was not mentioned up until the point. That is that different skilled players have tendencies to pick different spots. For example, lots of newbs love picking either india east china west china as their top 3 or scadninavia west russia and greenland while vets do otherwise. this, among several other discrepancies (such as different bonuses being more or less likely to have a wasteland, and also affects adjacent bonuses viability) makes the data too unreliable in my opinion.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/24/2011 00:15:36 |
devilnis
Level 11
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The data is 100% reliable if the XML has been handled right, it's the conclusions we draw from it that are hit and miss. IMO though, any data is better than no data, and as the sample size increases, it will become more useful.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/24/2011 00:23:08 |
crafty35a
Level 3
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Well if you read the thread, you will see that the wasteland issue has been discussed (and does not really affect things). As for the first issue you mention, my gut feeling is that it will not have as much of an effect as you seem to think. I suppose it would be easy enough for me to run the numbers for only high rated players/low rated players/etc. I may look at that in the future, but it's not at the top of my priorities list right now.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/24/2011 19:32:46 |
Duke
Level 5
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I vote that Crafty and MW come up with a suitable rating system for Wl and help Fizz implement it.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/24/2011 20:42:32 |
Blue Precision
Level 32
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Here here.
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Starting spots: The Best and the Worst (Finally, real data!): 3/24/2011 21:07:25 |
Ace Windu
Level 58
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I agree with Duke. Mathwolf and Crafty definitely have a lot of good ideas and certainly know what they're talking about.
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