Head to head polls are extremely inconsistent.

A Trump supporter is likely to support Ted Cruz in the general election. But at this point in time he will be reluctant to accept this. So he will probably say he will support Sanders in a Sander vs Cruz matchup to make Cruz look weaker.

A Republican voter will likely want their eventual nominee to face a weaker Democrat nominee. In this case, Sanders is the weaker nominee. So they might say they want Sanders.

Obviously, not all do this, but some do.

This is not to mention how far the elections are, the number of rallies, and debates still yet to be held, so really all these GE polls currently are very inaccurate.

I would rate Trump's chances as slim, 10+ years ago he wouldn't have stood a chance, but with declining American industries, an increased distrust in the Political system and a fragile World Peace, his views are catering to many.

Trump is an exceptional candidate. He has develeoped a very positive image from his supporters, and a very negative one from his dislikers. If he can keep up the current 'tough' and 'unpolitically correct' attitude whilst being more moderate to attract more voters in the GE, he will have a chance.

I like Rand but he has no chance of winning the nomination or the election. He's getting walked over and ignored by everybody.

Rubio, really? What does he even stand for? Nobody knows, nobody cares. I know he's spending a lot money on ads and that didn't help him either.

Trump rose to the top of the Republican race almost the day he announced his candidacy, and has stayed there ever since. Nobody cares what the polls say about him vs Hillary now, that comes after the Republican nomination.

Trump has tremendous appeal among minorities. Take this, for example: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/breaking-poll-40-of-blacks-line-behind-trump-45-of-hispanics/

He has more than double as much appeal among them as any other Republican candidate. Not everyone is idiotic enough to believe that he is a racist. What he says about radical Islamic terrorism is not racism but the truth. No other Rebublican wanted to touch the subject until they saw Trump having success with it.

Also, didn't you watch the attack ad OP linked to? Trump is ideal for moderates who don't care about being "conservative", whatever that means, rather than about common-sense policy.

Rubio, really? What does he even stand for?

That's pretty easy to figure out - increasing military spending, no compromises (with Russia, Iran, or China), pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens, war against Syria and ISIS (using Arab+American ground forces), lower taxes, state run education. Anything I missed?

Not everyone is idiotic enough to believe that he is a racist.

Trump doesn't have to be a racist to be perceived as one. That's exactly the campaign strategy the Democrats will use. They'll play his rhetoric against immigrants (legal or illegal) a billion times if they have to and convince every minority voter of non-European background (Asians and Latinos) that if they don't vote Democrat, they'll be kicked out of the country (which is of course false).

Trump is ideal for moderates who don't care about being "conservative", whatever that means, rather than about common-sense policy

But don't you understand that conservatives won't vote for him?? There are a number of establishment Republicans (mostly retired) and Republican donors who say they would rather vote Hillary than Trump. Trump will alienate grassroots conservatives who like Carson, Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee, and Rand Paul.

Edited 1/26/2016 01:46:39

I am a cruz supporter first and a Trump supporter 2nd. He doesn't alienate me. He isn't a consistent conservative however his words appeal to me. His policies are like that of Cruz.

That's pretty easy to figure out - increasing military spending, no compromises (with Russia, Iran, or China), pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens, war against Syria and ISIS (using Arab+American ground forces), lower taxes, state run education. Anything I missed?

That's what he says he supports, not exactly what he stands for. He will, for example, make compromises with Russia, Iran, and China because he has to. Trump will too, but he's obviously a better dealmaker. Also keep in mind that Rubio has gotten so much money from lobbyists that it's *them* who run the country should he get elected, and they don't care about the American people. Trump is entirely self-financed.

Trump doesn't have to be a racist to be perceived as one. That's exactly the campaign strategy the Democrats will use. They'll play his rhetoric against immigrants (legal or illegal) a billion times if they have to and convince every minority voter of non-European background (Asians and Latinos) that if they don't vote Democrat, they'll be kicked out of the country (which is of course false).

I just showed you a study that shows Trump having tremendously more appeal to minorities than other Republican candidates. Clearly many of them understand what's going on. Trump has already been smeared by everybody and his poll numbers are as good as ever. It doesn't stick.

Let me give you an example: Hillary called Trump a sexist. Trump responded by saying that Hillary is an enabler of her husband. Hillary's poll numbers went down and she hasn't touched the subject ever since. Trump knows how to deal with bullshit.

But don't you understand that conservatives won't vote for him?? There are a number of establishment Republicans (mostly retired) and Republican donors who say they would rather vote Hillary than Trump. Trump will alienate grassroots conservatives who like Carson, Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee, and Rand Paul.

If conservatives won't vote for him, then why does he have almost as much support in the primaries as all other Rep candidates combined? Of course they vote for him. For example, Iowa evangelicals are tied between Cruz and Trump (31% vs 29%, 3 weeks ago 33% vs 19%).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/01/25/krauthammer_to_george_will_if_cruzs_new_york_values_attacked_worked_why_has_he_lost_14_points.html

Even Sarah Palin endorsed Trump, you know, the woman who made Cruz senator in the first place.

Plus, Trump has a lot of appeal to independents and democrats as opposed to Cruz and the others.

Establishment Republicans and donors vote for Hillary because they know that if Trump wins, they will lose their control of the party, and all their lobbying money was wasted. They have nothing to do with the grassroots.

Edited 1/26/2016 02:15:25

Trump is entirely self-financed.

Again as I said, Trump supporters are obsessed with 3 things - illegal immigration, political financing, and the outsourcing of jobs. Sure, maybe I trust Trump on those 3 things...but I don't trust him on anything else. Foreign policy - no experience and may be possibly inclined to pursue war in the middle east if someone insults him (he has no discipline or composure). Social values - he has no moral fiber (he's married 3 times, he calls the Eucharist "eating a cracker", he's pro-choice, and cares too much about his own wealth).

Also you shouldn't be touting the USA ElectionPoll where he won 40% of African American votes. Its over a year from the GE, everyone should take national polls of any type with a grain of salt. If you look at history candidates who tend to attract fringe white-supremacist groups like Trump tend to lose (remember George Wallace?). No Republican has won 40% of the African American vote since the party geography switched.

Even Sarah Palin endorsed Trump, you know, the woman who made Cruz senator in the first place.

Plus, Trump has a lot of appeal to independents and democrats as opposed to Cruz and the others.

Sarah Palin is a nut job. No need to say anything more. She and Trump share one thing in common - illiteracy when they speak. Worst VP candidate since Dan Quayle. Also the fact that Trump has appeal from working class "democrats and independents" proves that Trump is not a conservative.

For example, Iowa evangelicals are tied between Cruz and Trump (31% vs 29%, 3 weeks ago 33% vs 19%).

This I cannot explain. Let's hope its a statistical error. Cruz is the most evangelical conservative next to Huckabee and Santorum.

^^^

I can. Evangelicals are today mostly democrats, believe it or not.

Political correctness and radical Islamic terrorism wouldn't even be election topics without Trump. He has done a lot good without even being president. Imagine what he will do once he gets into the oval office.

Trump having no discipline? Give me a break. He has lead hundreds of companies, if not thousands, successfully. It's not a coincidence that he has done so well in the private sector.

I don't see why it's relevant how many times he's been married or whether he sometimes curses. He's not a baby.

Nut job or not, Palin speaks for a lot of the conservative grassroots. That was the whole point, no?

And by the way, Trump is an excellent speaker. He wipes the floor with the other candidates. How is he supposed illiterate when he speaks? He doesn't even use a teleprompter.

Iowa evangelicals support Trump because they can prioritize issues. He doesn't have to be a choirboy as long as he gets things done. Like I said, Trump has a lot of appeal to many different people.

The Lord... I find myself agreeing with you.

That concerns me.

Just telling how it is.

Political correctness and radical Islamic terrorism

Eh its been bubbling for awhile ever since the SJWs and Black Lives Matter got on a steamroll at Universities. Plus Cruz has been talking about Islamic terrorism years before Trump did :P

I don't see why it's relevant how many times he's been married or whether he sometimes curses.

Because he's trying to be leader of our entire country. Morality matters. Respectability matters. Dignity matters. How can I trust him to build relationships with world leaders if he can't even keep a marriage together. May as well let Kim Kardashian become president...I mean she's done FANTASTIC in the private sector.

And by the way, Trump is an excellent speaker.

lol wut? He rambles, doesn't finish a thought, talks about his poll numbers for half the time, recycles his same one liners ("We are losing", "We're gonna make this country great again", "We're gonna build a wall and its gonna have a beautiful door right in the middle of it"), and jumps between topics randomly. How did this guy get into the Wharton School of Finance (is that what his small loan of million dollars was used to pay for?).

Bill Clinton. Morality didn't matter for him.

In regards to speaking- that is the cause of several different factors.

Eh its been bubbling for awhile ever since the SJWs and Black Lives Matter got on a steamroll at Universities. Plus Cruz has been talking about Islamic terrorism years before Trump did :P

Have they gotten anything done? They've been talking about illegal immigration since Reagan gave them amnesty, but nothing has been done. Other Republicans are too timid when talking about these subjects, afraid of offending the ever-offended leftist press. Trump, on the other hand, has mobilized huge crowds on these issues. He's the only reason anyone bothers to watch Republican debates.

Because he's trying to be leader of our entire country. Morality matters. Respectability matters. Dignity matters. How can I trust him to build relationships with world leaders if he can't even keep a marriage together. May as well let Kim Kardashian become president...I mean she's done FANTASTIC in the private sector.

Well, look at Obama. He has done nothing but failed internationally. Nobody respects him or his country. Russia, China and Iran walk all over him. You don't need to be a stiff to be respected.

Trump, on the other hand, has spent the least on his campaign and gotten the best results. Once he does the same internationally, there will be no need to use the US military to get what he wants.

Trump has already gotten an endorsement from Putin. Cruz cannot even get one from a notable GOP member...

lol wut? He rambles, doesn't finish a thought, talks about his poll numbers for half the time, recycles his same one liners ("We are losing", "We're gonna make this country great again", "We're gonna build a wall and its gonna have a beautiful door right in the middle of it"), and jumps between topics randomly. How did this guy get into the Wharton School of Finance (is that what his small loan of million dollars was used to pay for?).

So what if he doesn't finish all his sentences? The message is perfectly clear. I like his livid speaking style. Most of the other candidates sound like they are reading from a paper (or teleprompter). It's because of Trump that people bother to watch GOP debates. He's a good and entertaining speaker. Just think of how he demolished Cruz on New York values.

Just think of how he demolished Cruz on New York values.

Ted Cruz was perfectly in line when he said that. But yes, Trump knows how to play the 9/11 card.

Cruz was speechless after Trump's retort.

And I don't think Cruz' statement was particularly insulting, as Trump claimed, but the point is that Trump is very good with words. It was not just that he played the 9/11 card, but how he played it.

Trump is a fantastic speaker. Easily and by far the best out of all the nominees. The point of a speech is rarely to convince someone of a point of view. Usually someone who attends a Trump rally will already be a Trump supporter, and how many times has a speech by someone changed your world view? Speeches are mainly to satisfy someone's confirmation bias, to make them feel more enthusiastic about something they already support.

His answers are often waffly and not on point, but they work to his advantage. He avoids treading in murky topics , avoids saying something wrong and then getting badgered by the press. His colloquial tone gives the impression he's speaking off the top of his head and unscripted, and thats part of his appeal. Although I do suspect that many of the aspects are deliberate and made for effect, but it doesn't matter, since it keeps his supporters happy.

He refrains from getting too technical to not bore into his audience, he usually just talks about simple thoughts and aims rather than elaborate on specific details of policy. He jumps around topics, interjecting points or stories throughout, then continues and keeps his audience interested.

Ultimately, people's will be more persuaded by first impressions, empathetic and emotional appeals rather than through logic and reason.

Trump is a fantastic entertainer and comedian on that we agree, because Trump is a real clown.

If you want to elect a clown, so be it, I seriously hope that people are more clever than you Pulsey, because after all the most important thing is what the candidate offers in terms of reforms, political program, etc, to his country, and Trump would be a catastrophic president. Welcome in Idiocracy! (btw I advise you to watch this movie)

Koala western civilization is doomed. There is nothing you can do to prevent it. Its too late now. Who we elect will have a negligible impact upon our ultimate fate as a civilization.

Yes well, Koala, as usual you are naively insistent that you live in a perfect world and remain completely oblivious to human nature.

Besides, I never said Trump was the best man for the job, I just said he was the best speaker. His campaign has obviously offered many ideas, political programs on the table and has opened a lot of discussion and dialogue, which I think is much more than some other campaigns.

Pulsey, as usual you are the main hypocrite here, I am not as much as gullible as you are, as you are blinded by mere comedian prowesses and some rhetorical tricks. You are here just stating that to be a successful candidate the only thing which really matters is that you have to be a clown and make your totally lobotomized audience happy? If you still do not get the utterly stupid statement you made, this shows how much brainwashed you are.

"avoids saying something wrong and then getting badgered by the press."
Oh yeah, like his really realistic and demagogic project of banning all the muslims? Could you please stop contradicting yourself everytime?

"He avoids treading in murky topics "
Well the thing is he's just avoiding any serious debates, and again many politicians most of the time far right leaders, use the same very strategy. Nothing to be proud of.

Oh and please tell me more about his own program? Did you even ever read it? Or are you only listening to his speeches naively believing everything he says is the only and unique truth?
Give me which are according to you these "many ideas" he offered? I am really curious to know them.