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won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/17/2016 22:29:08


chuck norris
Level 58
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can anybody explain to me why this happened?
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/17/2016 22:37:19


knyte 
Level 58
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Assuming we're talking about the 1v1 ladder, Bayeselo recalculates your points every 30 minutes or so (whenever it's run) by looking at the entire system as a whole. Your rating changes all the time even when you don't play games- usually due to changes in your past opponents' ratings (e.g., if you played someone whose rating sank or grew significantly since your game).
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/17/2016 22:46:45


chuck norris
Level 58
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yeah its the 1v1 ladder, thx :)
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/18/2016 05:48:42


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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If any of these:
http://img.prntscr.com/img?url=http://i.imgur.com/QCnkCK9.png

Lose rating, you lose rating


If any of these:
http://prntscr.com/b5e3a3

Lose rating, you lose rating as well


So your rating will keep changing in a permanent base, and you'll see a few variations in your rating at any time because someone lost or won a game, or because their rating changed because anoter person won or lost a game, etc...

So it is possible to lose rating after a win because of this. Also, if you beat a very poorly rated opponent (way lower than you rating-wise) you can lose pts; the opposite can also happen if you lose to a very well rated opponent (way higher than you rating-wise).


Games expiring may also change your rating.

Edited 5/18/2016 17:57:25
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/18/2016 17:53:39


j willy 47
Level 58
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@Team Guns- Wouldn't people you lost to raising their ratings actually boost yours, not hurt it? After all, it now shows that you have lost to a better opponent. Otherwise, beating someone with an alt and then tanking with that account wouldn't hurt anyone.

TL;DR
No matter what, if people you played ratings go down it hurts you. And if people you played ratings go up it helps you
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/18/2016 17:57:42


TeamGuns 
Level 58
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Precisely, got a little messed up there ^^
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/18/2016 18:03:46


Bayern München is the best!
Level 58
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TeamGuns didn't troll?!
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/18/2016 19:45:41


Math Wolf 
Level 62
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You also lose points if you win against someone who is rated a lot lower than most of the other people you won against. Similarly, you may win a few points by losing against someone who is very highly rated.

This happens regularly on the 2v2 and 3v3 ladder because you get matched up with teams rated much more differently from your own rating because there are a lot less teams (compared to the 1v1). I've seen instances of up to 50 (!) points won after a win against a bad team expired (with no big other changed that happened in the same time frame).

(That's basically the main argument against BayesElo. With TrueSkill your rating may decrease as well after a win, but at least your mean will always increase.)

Edited 5/18/2016 19:46:55
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/18/2016 21:30:27


TBest 
Level 59
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So... when my 4 first non-expired games (all won) expire I can count on a massive rating boost? Ther is about ~1k difference for all of them.
won a game, lost a rating point, wtf?: 5/19/2016 10:19:05


Math Wolf 
Level 62
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@TBest: possibly, but not certainly. This especially happens on 2v2 and 3v3 with teams that have a limited number of games (only 10 needed) and have mainly or only wins.
The next worst win also matters, if a win against a 1400 team expires, but there's still one against a 1450 team, it may not matter so much. The 50 point case I'm talking about was a team whose worst win was against a ~1300 team at the time (give or take a 100 points, it's a while ago), and their next worst win against ~1800 or so. The number of games of the other team probably matters as well: teams with many games supposedly influence your rating more than teams with few games, but I'm not completely sure of that.
In your case, my totale subjective and variable guesstimate is that your rating will go up when the games expire, but not by much, maybe 10 points in total for the 4 games together (as you will other unexpired games against players in the low 1000's).

I've seen many other cases like it, but mostly it's rather in the range of a 10 point jump, occassionally 20 point jump. My own current team (2v2) had several instances of this as well.

BayesElo is notoriously unstable when there are few wins or few losses.

Either how I'm interested to hear how much your rating changes when those games expire to "update" my knowledge on this!
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