bad prediciton = you miscalculated something = a mistake

of-course, there is luck involved into it and thus it is a complexity I excluded to make sure I can get a more precise idea of the luck factor on games where there are no mistakes.

then after getting a general idea of the luck involved without including mistakes, one can start to argue on those.

Edited 7/4/2014 14:52:02

several people have suggested if luck were the primary determinant there would be some perfectly balanced statistics in win percentages to reveal it.

NO way!

that would be the case if luck were the ONLY determinant. Obviously there are other factors, and skill is certainly one of them. Just not the biggest one.

When luck is primary, we still see skilled players ranked higher. We still see a normal distribution of win percentages. BUT - that normal curve is very tall and skinny.

That's what I'm suggesting. And my anecdotal observation is that the very large majority tend toward the center, as luck would bring.

I'm losing faith in this game's programming :-(

now that I have come to the realization that luck is the biggest factor, it has lost much of its appeal.

Edited 7/4/2014 15:24:36

Luck is absolutely not the biggest determinant. It's only lousy players that are arguing it is.

Yes, you're both lousy players in my eyes. I am confident I can beat either of you over 70% of the time. I am confident sze can beat you over 80% of the time.

I am equally confident you'd moan that we were excessively lucky after said games.

I very rarely lose due to luck. The games where I am unlucky I still typically win, just in a few more turns, or if I lose them it is due to a combination of bad luck AND errors on my part.

I doubt you can find five games on the ladder, ever, where a low rated player upset a top player, where the reason was purely luck. They might have had superior luck, but the top player still lost due to a mistake on their part.

Edited 7/4/2014 15:29:00

It basically means that if your lucky enough you can win every single game you play even if you are just above average player since skill(etc..) matter less when a player reaches a certain level.

This is just wrong, skill matters more the higher level the players play on. While luck matters more on lower leves of play.

In chess there's arguably no luck*

If you have anyway to support this claim, please do so.
there is luck in chess, but it is no where close to 50-60%
I play chess and the ratio of losses vs average players is very very low compared to warlight.

Warlight is a much more complex game then standard chess with different luck factor, so you cannot really compare the 2.

"This wouldn't happen if the game wasn't around 50-60% luck based."wrong, because it still happens.


It doesn't happen in chess and as I said, they cannot be compared.
In chess in most cases the better player wins, its very rare that a much lesser average player wins against a pro.
assuming an average player reads 3-4 moves ahead and a pro 6-10 moves ahead with a bunch of contingency plans.


First, you should also learn to read the whole post I made (I said I believed it to be luck in chess...) anyway, it is arguable no luck involved because there simply isn't a luck factor, eg in warlight you've luck, turn order picks etc. there's no such thing in chess.

It happens in chess, all the time. Go to (almost) any chess tourney and you'll see a lower ranked player beat a higher ranked one, the biggest upsets I know about are about 600 elo difference...


also your last stament that "assuming an average player reads 3-4 moves ahead and a pro 6-10 moves ahead with a bunch of contingency plans." proves you've no idea what you're talking about (with regards to chess, not luck) no offense but that is also just plain wrong.

Edited 7/4/2014 15:40:18

'Good Kid', all you have done is post a flat denial with some insults.

that's not argument.

perhaps you can post a link to your games where your luck was down but you still won. Good luck finding some.

I very rarely lose due to luck. The games where I am unlucky I still typically win, just in a few more turns, or if I lose them it is due to a combination of bad luck AND errors on my part.

I doubt you can find five games on the ladder, ever, where a low rated player upset a top player, where the reason was purely luck. They might have had superior luck, but the top player still lost due to a mistake on their part.

Learn to read before entering a discussion. As soon as I get on a computer I'll find a negative luck game I won.

you mean you will search for a long time to find maybe one.

haha

I'm actually on holiday and didn't bring my laptop. Don't see a reason to pay for a computer to satisfy your idiotic whims.

Since you ignored the first part of my post, I assume you accept it.

Also, although luck is a factor, it is very small and certainly not the primary determinant. I'd expect no more than 10% of my Strat 1v1 games to be determined by move order or 3v2/6v4 failing, and that percentage is generous.

Edited 7/4/2014 23:23:46

well i wish to argue against those who think that statistics are in any way an effective way on calculating the luck factor.

statistics have very high complexity; different game settings, different player skills, booting, etc..

The luck factor is not an easy thing to calculate and statistics is the worst possible way to do it.

Edited 7/5/2014 00:28:01

Negative luck games I won?

Easy, for starters I will only include wins over top 5 ladder opponents, where they had higher cumulative luck (since this is what Taxi has been whining about).

Me beating Summer in the finals of a tournament: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6558262

Me beating Boston: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6400737

Me destroying Angry Beavers on the ladder: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6355351

Me beating Grona in the clan league: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6383395

Me beating Heyheuhei on the ladder: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6320551

Me beating Summer on the ladder: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6247892

Me beating Jehovah while he was rank 1 on ladder with his alt: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6174637


Yeah, not really that hard to find. Certainly found more than one, they're all recent too, and I could find tons more if I included games vs. people that hadn't been top 5 on the ladder but were still very good.

Taxi Driver, if what you say is true and "after hundreds and hundreds of games most every game you lose, your cumulative luck is negative. When you have an at least minimally competent opponent, it seems almost impossible to lose if your luck is positive."

It sounds like you have perfected some kind of super-safe play style. Would you care to post a large sample of your strategic 1v1 games please? I am really interested to see how you turn luck of 50%+ into a guaranteed win. That is something incredibly impressive.

Edited 7/5/2014 04:07:53

@Piggy I think it's more likely he never plays opponents competent enough to smash him no matter what his luck is.

Perhaps, but lets reserve judgement until we see some links.

I think he already said that he's mostly used a higher luck setting?

well Good Kid your post is exactly as expected

the first game you posted your luck was positive/netural, and not an example of a low luck victory.

the second game was a game that did not finish, and was only a 'victory' because one player dropped.

the third game was one where a player got booted for time expiring....

etc etc



you failed to post any significant examples of winning despite low luck.

perhaps there is a reason it was so hard for you to find any, and made you resort to posting ones you knew were poor/fake examples. My guess is LUCK IS PRIMARY is the reason.

all the games I play are pickup games. My only prerequisite is a minimum level 10 experience (and that only sometimes). So I am not cherry picking easy opponents. I have no control over who enters my room. I almost always host, so my opponents are choosing me, I dont choose them. If anything, most of my opponents are higher level.

I have played almost 2000 ranked games, so I think anything I might post would just be a random sample.

But my stats speak for themselves
60%+ on 1v1
60%+ on 2v2 (always pickup game, no fixed partner or clan)
and my FFAs are all above average.

Edited 7/5/2014 17:15:39

What if i told you... levels dont reflect your skill

Just a few winning despite bad luck examples. i tried to pick games were the bad luck in early turns is evident and against decent players:

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5362606

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5480984

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5257196

Vernita,

in the first game you posted, your opponent just dropped. Probably had to end the game early for some reason, but he was beating you. Not a low luck victory.

the second game your 'low luck' was fairly mild. I'll accept it as a barely qualifying example.

the third game, your luck was actually positive, not negative.