Dear Platypus,
Sorry, it took me a while to answer your question, I've been thinking about your game a lot because I struggled to put my finger on the general theme of what you did wrong, rather than a list of small errors. Here is the game link
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3630845 . I think this question is the most important yet because you suffer from the same thing many new players suffer from.
Your picks were nice, your bad luck in Baja was no biggie. The problem was that you used your armies very inefficiently in your expansion.
turn 1: left 3 armies idle in EChina.
turn 2: left 4 idle in CA and used 2 more than you needed in EChina
turn 3: left 2 idlle in CA and used 4 more than you needed in EChina and 2 more than you needed in SA.
A little bit of inefficiency is inevitable, for instance when you don't know if you will bump into your enemy, but this is too much. In turn 2 you didn't use more than your entire income for the turn. In turn 3 you need to leave yourself the option of completing a second bonus by the end of turn 4 or else when you hit your opponent he will be a whole bonus up. It's much easier to win by having a higher income than by ambushing. In this game you try to ambush F bombs in indonesia but when you get there you do not have an income + stack high enough to break him.
And one other small thing; when you have a first turn bonus making contact with your enemy sooner is better. There is no reason not to attack in EChina on turn 1.
Thanks for your question,
Piggy