continuation of https://www.warzone.com/Forum/730347-giant-16k-free-entry-tourney-tarabonias-choice
tourney link: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer/Tournament?ID=55398

A lot has happened since my last update on warzones 16k coin tourney with a very stacked line-up - so lets crunch some numbers first:

These numbers show the performance and popularity of each card during the tourney. As in round one the average player is weaker (and less experienced on the template), i thought it makes sense to weigh each game by how far into the tourney it is. (Weight = round for winner_bracket, round/2 for loser_bracket).
Here are the raw numbers:

winner_bracket

tourney_round = 1
no card
winrate = 33.33%
pickrate = 7.63%

reinforcement
winrate = 50.0%
pickrate = 1.69%

emergency blockade
winrate = 48.0%
pickrate = 34.75%

order priority
winrate = 58.33%
pickrate = 10.17%

order delay
winrate = 68.75%
pickrate = 18.64%

sanctions
winrate = 38.89%
pickrate = 15.25%

blockade
winrate = 50.0%
pickrate = 11.86%


tourney_round = 2
no card
winrate = 33.33%
pickrate = 5.36%

reinforcement
winrate = 0.0%
pickrate = 1.79%

emergency blockade
winrate = 63.64%
pickrate = 26.79%

order priority
winrate = 50.0%
pickrate = 14.29%

order delay
winrate = 50.0%
pickrate = 25.0%

sanctions
winrate = 75.0%
pickrate = 17.86%

blockade
winrate = 20.0%
pickrate = 8.93%


tourney_round = 3
no card
winrate = 0.0%
pickrate = 3.33%

reinforcement
winrate = nan%
pickrate = 0.0%

emergency blockade
winrate = 44.44%
pickrate = 30.0%

order priority
winrate = 40.0%
pickrate = 16.67%

order delay
winrate = 57.14%
pickrate = 30.0%

sanctions
winrate = 75.0%
pickrate = 13.33%

blockade
winrate = 50.0%
pickrate = 6.67%



loser_bracket

tourney_round = 1
no card
winrate = 66.67%
pickrate = 7.14%

reinforcement
winrate = 100.0%
pickrate = 2.38%

emergency blockade
winrate = 20.0%
pickrate = 35.71%

order priority
winrate = 100.0%
pickrate = 4.76%

order delay
winrate = 85.71%
pickrate = 21.43%

sanctions
winrate = 14.29%
pickrate = 21.43%

blockade
winrate = 33.33%
pickrate = 7.14%



weighted results over all rounds

no card
winrate = 30.77%
pickrate = 6.5%

reinforcement
winrate = 33.33%
pickrate = 1.63%

emergency blockade
winrate = 50.33%
pickrate = 32.52%

order priority
winrate = 50.0%
pickrate = 10.98%

order delay
winrate = 58.91%
pickrate = 21.95%

sanctions
winrate = 54.22%
pickrate = 16.67%

blockade
winrate = 38.98%
pickrate = 9.76%


Notably, the heavily discussed Sanctions card has made a huge comeback, performing the best in the higher rounds.
Order delay remains on its top 1 spot in terms of winrate and also increases its pickrate.
Emergency Blockade remains top 1 in terms of popularity and also redeems itself with its winrate.
Blockade is now dead last (brain-dead options aside), which i m actually slightly surprised by, given i saw plenty of games where ppl used an EB where normal Blockade would ve yielded better results. However, i suppose the higher flexibility of EB easily makes up for that.


As we ve already progressed deep into the tourney, i also want to point out some performances:

QH is the first to guarantee himself a share of the big price pool by defeating no other than Rufus in the winner bracket Semi-Finale - congrats!

The other winner bracket semi finale is still ongoing with master of desaster facing off against the GiantFrog.

We ve also seen some noteworthy comebacks, for example by nightly who lost his first match, but then went on a 5 game win-streak in the loser bracket, where he eventually met his end in the 6th round when losing to Beep Beep I'm a Jeep

There are 4 more players who lost their very first match but didnt give up on themselves and instead punched their way through the loser bracket:
pirtuzogno
Odin
Texx
Timinator

Each have 4 wins under their belt and the streaks are all still ongoing. They chose a tough rode but seem determined to walk it anyway!

Edited 1/22/2024 07:18:00

Interesting stats.
One remark: I feel like some cards have an inherent bias, for example you might choose sanctions more often in an anyways better position and blockade when you already see that you must block a chokepoint to stand a chance.
In that case, it just makes sense that sanctions has a winrate >50% and blockade <50%.
But my main takeaway is that all cards are reasonable and all cards are chosen, which really is a testament of how great the idea of the template worked out.

@Beep Very true
I think given strong play, sanctions should always be >0.5 winrate and with a low pickrate. I think EB is actually performing solid so far considering i would pick it in more desperate situations, but i guess its a versatile card overall, just a little risky.
Blockade i m not so sure yet if its nature should give it a higher or lower winrate. The way you phrase it pushes it to the lower winrate, but i think you could also phrase it as "there is a good spot for a blockade that allows you to (for example) heavily limit opponents expansion".
Of course, even at this stage with already a decent sample of games, these numbers are still far from carved in stone. You d probs need thousands of high lvl games to really be trusting the numbers. This is more of an indicator and some interesting stats.

Edited 1/22/2024 09:51:04

I observed an outrageous omission above. The author forgot to mention that the participant alexclusive keeps cancering his way through the loser bracket with his signature strategy known as "always picks order priority card". Thanks to this ingenious approach, he has just defeated no one a few hours ago. Keep it up, alexclusive!

Participant alexclusive sadly lacks behind one victory compared to the others mentioned. You may argue that his victories were achieved at a later stage and therefore likely more difficult - but ppl dont care about excuses, they want numbers!

signature strategy known as "always picks order priority card"

A solid choice that the frog himself also likes to make, however the opponents of alexclusive may eventually catch onto this and no longer be surprised by it?
Time will tell, until then lets keep ignoring this participant until he fought himself out of irrelevancy! (or dies trying)

Edited 1/22/2024 10:16:52

This infuriating incident will only motivate participant alexclusive to triple his efforts and stick to his signature move!

sanctions
winrate = 54.22%
pickrate = 16.67%

do you have any idea if/how the negative sanctions affects this?

There is no correlation, because the sanction card sucks

Of course there is correlation, if you use the sanctions card in such a way that it gives you income, it both means you are in a strong position and a great player

I honestly think ~5 units is pretty balanced. If you go any higher then the sanctions card becomes too obvious for some pick sets and if you go any lower then it just sucks. The whole point is for the template to be Tarabonia’s Choice, not Tarabonia’s Mandate.

The current implementation (5 turns of -3% yielding 0-16, 17-50, 51+ income buckets) is surprisingly elegant as well. It’s difficult or even impossible to come up with another option which makes any sense at all.

Let’s say we decide a tweak to ~6 units would be more balanced. If we go to 3 turns of 2 units (perhaps -5% with 0-10, 11-30, 31+ income buckets?), it’s actually a *downgrade* to choosing the sanctions card. In this variant, choosing a different card and *using* the sanctions card on T1 will offset the 6th unit on most maps. Likewise, a tweak to 6 turns of 1 unit is ironically a nerf, not a buff for the same reason.

It’s ultimately very difficult to improve intended usage of the card without improving T1 usage of the card by even more.

Edited 2/9/2024 09:47:33

@leon
Thanks for the words :)
Also 17 as a minimum income to gain the 5 armies is chosen in order to not be able to get the armies with only your base income + starting bonus (which, at max, would be 4x4=16). This allows me to maximize the duration of sanction without it being used on t1 as you explained.
I kinda enjoy the division on the sanction card, always interesting to have some discussion. Also luckily, its a choice (the whole point of it :D), so those who dislike, may just ignore that option.

One thing i also like about sanction that is a little less obvious is that you can use it hidden. After playing a bunch of games on tarabonia, i realize how much easier it is to play an opponent that has already played his card. If the opponent holds onto it, there are so many more options to consider and this can screw you over. When playing sanction, its nice to have a frontline where you can try to elevate the small income advantage into something bigger, but even if that is not an option its possible to play it in a way where the opponent wont know you played it - keeping him in the dark while also gaining the benefits of the card.

---

Given i m posting now anyway, some updates:
Card Stats:
- to lazy to put game data into csv, will do once tourney finishes.

---

players:
In the 2nd winner bracket semi final, we have GiantFrog advancing against master of desaster. An expected result given mod has lost his mojo over the years.
However, in the winner-bracket final, the mighty GiantFrog proceeds to lose against QH. Experts still are buffled by how this could occur. The frog will now have a long wait ahead of him for the loser-bracket to catch up.
Congrats to QH for this amazing run. He will now wait in the overall final as the big favorite, given he only needs to win 1 out of 2 games against whoever emerges from the loser-bracket to win the whole thing. Either way, at a minimum its the silver medal for him!

Talking about the loser-bracket:
Lets have a look at participant alexclusive, as he was trying so much to push himself into the spotlight.
*checks results*... ah, yes, he lost the very next game and is now eleminated from the tournament. Lets move on i guess..
(good run anyways alex :P should ve stuck with your signature move, i suppose :D)

alexclusive fell to my fellow mate GGGG. A name that is probably not so known in the strat community, but a very strong player nonetheless. He is now on an impressive streak in the loser-bracket, and personally i wouldnt be to surprised if it wont end yet.

Everything else somewhat went as one would expect in the loser-bracket, with the exception of Octance getting eleminated by Gatsu.
I m sure it was due to Octance's hatred towards the sanctions card that angered the Tarabonia gods.

I'm happy I was mentioned this time, even though as a martyr