Labour should get at least 20 seats in Scotland

With Gordon Brown no longer leader of the Labour party, many many people have stopped voting for Labour in Scotland. The popular choice in Scotland now is SNP, and they will get almost all of Scotland's seats.

The SNP will get 50+, I meant that Labour would get over 20 seats if the result was even vaguely proportional, which of course it isn't

To be honest even though I do not vote and I am politically neutral, I have much common ground with the Cornerstone Conservatives Jacob Rees-Mogg, William Hague, Boris Johnson, Peter Bone kinda guys.

There not polling anywhere near enough in the constituencies for that number of seats. Check out Lord Ascrofts polling. Carswell might have a better chance than Reckless though as he is more popular an MP in his constituency.

Lord Ashcroft is a Conservative and it is in his interest to poll UKIP low. If he can cause people to think UKIP have no chance in their constituency, he can convince many Ukippers to vote for the Conservatives.

I think many people underestimate UKIP's support in the North. I also think UKIP might get one seat in Scotland.

Nonsense, Ashcroft releases a publicly available database with every poll and so far no one from YOUGOV, IPSOS-Mori, or any of the other pollsters, have said his system skewed in anyones favour.

He just funds his polls, he doesn't do the actual maths in them.

UKIP would have to almost treble their national average to get a seat, they have no generational links and they have very little experience of a running a big general election campaign (The EU election was easier case turnout is low, no one cares and everyone votes against the Gov.)

And then there's the disaster of FPTP to get through, UKIP will get between 2 and 4, anymore than that and they'll have had a very good day

Well said eKell.

Like I said Harth I predict 1 to 2. And none in Scotland. Lol Farage gets ran out of Scotland everytime he goes there.

http://news.sky.com/story/1475174/farage-ukip-faces-obliteration-in-scotland

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/ge2015/nigel-farage-admits-chance-of-ukip-seat-in-scotland-is-a-little-remote-1.870910

I hadn't noticed his prediction on Scotland, they'll be lucky to get over 5% up there! The SNP will get 50-56 of the 58, the Tories will get 0-2, 1-3 Lib Dem and maybe 5-6 Labour. UKIP didn't even get an MEP up there last time out

^Actually, there's 1 UKIP MEP from Scotland. However, he might not he healthy enough to last it to the end of the current term of the European parliament.

^Exactly. He is kinda popular up there.

If I remember rightly they took the last slot? Anyway UKIP support has tailed off even since then. And it's definitely not concentrated in any area where they could get past the post first.

Even Farage admits Scotland isn't returning a UKIP MP. If their lucky they will get 3 across the UK. I still think 1 to 2.

On an aside it is a difficult situation where the Greens can poll 5-10% and return 1 MP in 650. UKIP poll around 12% and will return 2 MPs (Probably but anywhere between 0-6 is possible). Lib Dems also poll around 12% and they will return around 25 from 650.

Labour and Cons poll 32-34% and 32-36% and they will return in the 250-300 range each.

We had a vote on voting reform. But first past the post clearly disenfranchises large parts of the vote.

We had a vote on voting reform. But first past the post clearly disenfranchises large parts of the vote.

That's true, but when he had a referendum on AV, the no to AV campaign put out a bunch of lies to win. This was the sort of crap they put out in their political broadcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-obZ9OG_XKA

Guess what? There were enough people dumb enough to believe that. Of course AV isn't perfect, but it's better than FPTP, but I would prefer single transferable vote.

Edited 5/6/2015 08:21:38

I'm from near Bristol and so rubbish at understanding most politics let alone seeing through the facade of the politicians.

Still unsure on my vote tomorrow...

Edited 5/6/2015 09:10:24

If you've got the time there is a good website called voteforpolicies.org that lets you pick policies you like. Then tells you the best party for you.

Edited 5/6/2015 11:51:56

www.whogetsmyvoteuk.com is very good

We have PRSTV for council, Stormont and EU elections in Northern Ireland, its a much better system, even though the coalition is mandatory.

Ireland uses is for everything too, people here basically vote for the coalition that they'd like to see

Ah, a fellow single transferable vote supporter!

I have never, will never vote. If I support a politician that then goes and does something like invades Iraq or creates something like the Oxygen Tax, I might be liable and I don't want to know that I helped that guy get elected.

Or you could vote for someone who you can trust not to invade Iraq, for for the least bad person.

You're just as liable as a supporter of someone who does horrible things if you do nothing to stop them.

Sitting around not voting whilst sniping from the sidelines is just a pointless, self-congratulatory act

Conclusion: Tony Blair was and still is a dick head.

^ What about Thatcher?

What about Thatcher?

A complete and utter cunt, but the topic of the conversation drifted towards Iraq, so there was no point mentioning anything about Thatcher.

Hmm, I took a survey...says that I'm most for Scottish National Party, with SDLP and Plaid Cymru coming in at second and third...F the English, I guess.