Therefore, a moderate Republican is the best fit.

That seems to be the common consensus. However, they tried the "moderate Republican" approach with Mitt Romney and it didn't end well. Now, I'm not saying that it's better to pick the fringe option (I.E: Trump). However, a standard, run of the mill Republican just does not have a good chance of getting the job done. The GOP needs someone who's different enough to distinguish themselves without diving off the deep end into radical territory.

The root of the problem is that the electoral college system gives heavy advantage to the Democrats when it comes to presidential races. The "Blue Wall" which has emerged makes it twice as hard for a Republican to win compared to a Democrat. How the Blue Wall can be broken down is beyond me, but the GOP definitely needs to find someone who can do it if they want a chance in the future.

Trump wins the nomination. I like Cruz the most, but Trump is just in league of his own.

The root of the problem is that the electoral college system gives heavy advantage to the Democrats when it comes to presidential races. The "Blue Wall" which has emerged makes it twice as hard for a Republican to win compared to a Democrat. How the Blue Wall can be broken down is beyond me, but the GOP definitely needs to find someone who can do it if they want a chance in the future.

+1 You hit the nail on the nose. Hopefully the Supreme Court's decision later this year in Evenwel v. Abbott will change the way states and the federal government redistrict by finally (finally) prohibiting the inclusion of felons and illegal aliens and noncitizens in population numbers that determine the number of representatives given out. Hopefully this will take votes away from the over-represented urban areas that are heavily democratic.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/05/one-person-one-vote/394502/

Despite what is said about Trump being racist, he garners significant support among many immigrants and minorities bitter about illegals taking the lower-paying jobs they used to hold. Furthermore, he has less of a need for minorities because he, like Reagan did, is attracting many blue-collar Democrats. This is where he is different from people like Cruz, Bush, Carson, Fiorina. He is seen more as "Trump" than as "Republican".

And anyone who believes that a moderate/establishment/liberal/RINO Republican like Rubio, Bush, Christie has a better chance of winning than Trump/Cruz is crazy. Unlike Trump, they don't attract Dems and independents, especially Jeb!, who just needs to leave. We saw with Romney and McCain that trying to please everyone ends up pleasing no one. They can't incentive grassroots conservatives to get out and vote. They don't attract minorities because they try to be half-liberal but the minorities prefer the fully-liberal Dems. Furthermore, even if they DID have a chance of winning, and won, they would hardly be better than a Democrat. The moderates in the Senate and House do jackshit for their constituents. Why would Rubio magically start fighting big government when he becomes pres? The narrative that the only chance Republicans having of gaining minority support is caving and adopting liberal ideas is idiotic at best, and disastrous for our country and the world at worst. When we are principled and true to the ideas that made America the greatest nation on Earth, those principles including but not limited to: low taxes, small government, immigration (LEGAL), RULE OF LAW, helping others but putting AMERICANS FIRST, the right to bear arms, and freedom of expression.

We need a second Reagan, and we need to throw the RINOS out of the GOP and let them join the Democrats (the RINOS of today would have been Dems in 1960). We need a conservative who will reduce government size for the first time in decades, and we need someone who is more than just talk. Establishment candidates aren't any of those things.

Moderation didn't work in '08, it didn't work in '12, so why would it work now?

EDIT: If we don't stop illegal immigration and amnesty, there will suddenly be 15 million more Dem voters. Even if you win 5 million votes for letting anyone in (you won't get that many, but let's pretend) like Rubio and Bush want to do, that can't compensate for the millions of illegals that will vote Dem in future elections. Illegal Immigration is the most important issue in America right now, and anyone who even considers amnesty is selling out the GOP and America.

Edited 1/4/2016 22:05:15

Ronald Reagan called Nixon just before the final debate of his race. He told Nixon to stand firm on Republican Social values and economic values, and to not even slightly go into the mild zone. Nixon did not listen and he lost by 0.2% of the vote. Ronald Reagan stood firmly on his views and showed in the best ways why they were true. Unless we have another Reagan, or our school systems stop making little imbeciles who vote for the "free shit" candidate.


Ted Cruz seems to me like the closest candidate to this, as he stands firm on his opinions and will not sway to a mid ground when it does nothing good for the good of the people.

Trump can't outline a single policy perspective. He can't form one coherent sentence that sounds eloquent and forceful, sophisticated yet informed, principled yet common sense. Ronald Reagan won and was so popular because he was "The Great Communicator". Trump cannot communicate his ideology let alone policy on complex topics such as Syria and economic policy. Cruz has the experience, the record, and the communication abilities to lead however he's more ambitious than Reagan was. I'm wary of Cruz...he's played the political game his whole life and he's too damn good at it to make me comfortable.

Reagan played the same game, just he did it better in every way possible. Cruz is the politician we need, no matter how wary some may be to him he is still the best out of everyone.

The only reason I wouldn't want Rand Paul in the white house is I think he would be another Obama at foreign policy. We all know that is rand Paul became the nominee his campaign would sound like Wilson and Obama's foreign policy...basically don't intervene....ever. if Wilson had Lisened to republicans instead of bashing them calling them war hungry, WW1 most likely would Have ended much much sooner and millions of lives would have been saved. Now, if only Obama would listen to the people. The majority of Americans want Obama to send ground troops I'm against ISIS and quickly finish the battle then let the IG ( Iraqi Guards ) mop up. If Paul won, one day we would be in the exact position and if the fine came to intervene I don't think we could count on him too. Every single time America had a non intervention president in our modern era we failed lost lives, money, and time. D Roosevelt, Wilson, McKinley were all non intervention presidents that were eventually woken up out of there slumber by an attack that could have been avoided if they had listened to there advisors and done something sooner. I'm not saying we should get involved in every war we see but turning a blind eye to wars that clearly threaten our security and we should monitor is just bullshit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izGwDsrQ1eQ

I'm not going to predict who will win, or say who I want to win either nomination. That being said...

STOP CALLING IT OBAMACARE.

Call it the Affordable Care Act or ACA, which is what IT IS.

This was a republican idea in the first place. Romney made a similar system as Governor and the Heritage Foundation had been pushing the exchanges idea for years.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Robert-Reich/2013/1028/The-irony-of-Republican-disapproval-of-Obamacare

Whether or not it is good I won't debate (I have my opinions, but prefer not to debate politics online). That isn't the point. The point is to stop labeling it as his idea, which it was not.

Edited 1/5/2016 00:19:14

Fizzer what's your opinion on all of this?

"If one hundred people buy a membership I won't vote for Trump" - Fizzer 2016

Lol dude, Obama and liberals was calling it obamacare back in the days when it was a high tech advancement idea. Now that's it's falling apart and nobody wants it, liberals and Obama are desperate to get it back to the ACA ( Affordable care act )

http://www.gallup.com/poll/187607/donald-trump-known-not-liked.aspx?g_source=POLITICS&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Based on favorability ratings, Rubio seems to have an edge over Cruz. He hasn't even drifted negative yet.

LOL I swear if Rubio wins by playing the card "I'm the least hated" the DNC is gonna have a field day with him come general election time. Republicans are right when they call him the Republican Obama. He's got a winning smile and a good voice. That's not the qualifications for a man in the white house. If Rubio wins the GOP nomination and then the general election (almost always the party that's controlled the White House for 8 years loses) we will have another war in the middle east with US ground troops. That's a full proof bet. Rubio still thinks foreign policy is a game of warlight. He's too young and too full of noise. #StandWithRand #NoMoreNeocons

And lol screw Gallup....they don't even include Rand Paul in their polling!! He's still a candidate you know!!

Edited 1/5/2016 01:41:46

Rand Paul's chances are pretty low TBH. He had a good run early on but much like what happened with his father's campaign he's now running out of steam.

At this point only Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson have high enough poll numbers to pull through (And Carson's spot is extremely shaky).

Everyone else is so low in poll numbers it's hardly worth mentioning.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/

This is also a super-worthwhile read- especially the very first part. Not strictly relevant to the primary, of course- but Hillary vs. Rubio could totally rek the Democrats' complacency this time and force them to try again instead of acting like their having the presidency puts the GOP on some path to extinction.

Knyte you may also like this (idk if you already linked it): http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

The simulator is pretty cool (I can't judge the accuracy of it though). According to the article minority votes are being way overvalued, since the voting electorate is largely made up of Whites. Add to that the historically low voter participation of Asians and Hispanics (pre-Obama years) and you have a pretty open door for a Republican win. Although the Republicans have made huge strides with Asian-American voters with the Republican Hindu Coalition vowing to spend up to $10 million in battleground states with Asian-American swing vote coalitions. I think there are a ton of variables that could throw this race into total confusion...I have a feeling the white voter turnout may also reach record highs in 2016 (maybe near 67% or above).

Cruz. I'm voting Sanders but he won't win. Cruz wins it all is my prediction.

@Jai: FiveThirtyEight's version is way cooler: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/