Sounds good!!

i wonder, do you think he is going to get more than 30% or less than 25%?

Honestly? Between 25% and 30%. I don't know how many of his supporters will actually take time out of their day to go caucus for 2-3 hours in a small room. Plus I heard there was a snowstorm last night in Iowa (or this morning?) and studies show that lowers voter turnout.

why would you take the bet then? I think the snowstorm is going to be good for Trump and Bernie, since their voters seems to be very enthousiastic about voting for them, and therefore probably won't be held up by a snowstorm.

I'll take your $50 on my bets for my $200 and $150

Bernie to get all states with 90% majority :D

No but you see many Trump supporters have never caucused before...which is why I believe the storm and their general apathy will mean that the voter turnout for Trump will be lower than his actual poll numbers. Cruz and the other candidates have better organized campaigns and so their supporters will turnout in full force regardless of weather conditions. Also a lot of Trump supporters are younger, who historically don't engage in the primary. (Maybe I'm just praying instead of being logical...because if Trump gets more than 30% in Iowa, no candidate can beat him and I don't want him to win).

Edited 2/1/2016 21:48:32

sry for the republican it me betting 150$ and you 50$, i mixed up the odds

oh ok. I still take it.

Also a lot of Trump supporters are younger, who historically don't engage in the primary.

I have a feeling the history won't repeat itself, young voters seem to be very much engaged in this election, especially for sanders and trump

just to be clear, i feel there might be a misunderstanding Jai. When i made the bet proposals, i meant that i was beting For the proposal, and whoever take the bet is betting Against the proposal. That's how you understood it right?

i just have a new found respect for McCain (to be honest i didn't know much about him)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSB8CYXcchw

Edited 2/1/2016 22:44:02

You're right that may be true. Its only a guess now. 1 more hour left...


And yes I understand your bet, but thanks for clarifying. I am betting against the proposal.

Edited 2/1/2016 23:06:54

how long for the first results?

http://eyeoniowa.com/

45 minutes.

fuck, now i have to wait, and i'll go to sleep at 4am and i have to be up at 8am

wow, caucus are taking place in Churches? Is there any caucus in mosques too? lol

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/IA

Exit polls have Clinton and Trump in a slight lead.

$1000 on the one democrat, that no one remembers his name, won't win the 2016 Democrat Primaries.

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

^more precise results. Cruz has slight lead now, but the smaller areas are counted first, and they favour Cruz. Clinton's lead is decreasing.