CORP with lots of unfinished games likely at second, Lu Fredd getting distanced from CORP

Is this you declaring that those unfinished games are expected to be wins for CORP? The stat sheet reads that Lu Fredd has won a higher % of points contested and will get 2nd at the current pace.

It is normal Onoma is biased in his analysis :P

haha gotcha :)

I think looking at contested points alone isn't enough, especially considering the actual matchups - which I payed attention to a few times in the updates.

Let's look at CORP's results so far:



As we can see, 7th Heaven - who are sitting at 91% in points contested and 90% winrate, being so far ahead everyone else it's not funny - is the only clan against which CORP played full set of games (or "played", since 2v2 Guiroma had 1 CORP player not joining, but that's not too weighty here). Here also CORP has 20% winrate against this clan - only 3 out of 18 dearly points gained.

Against everyone else though, there are very few matchups, out of which only two don't come from 1v1 Guiroma and 1v1 ME! One is an auto-loss on 2v2 Guiroma (from the same player on the same template not joining), other is win against German Warlords on the DRome. This kind of speaks nothing about CORP players' skill there, however we know much more about other clans (since they have much more games finished): there is a one loss against Dutch Forever on 1v1 Guiroma - for [NL] it's the only template where they have more than 1 win after 4 out of 5 templates finished (except CORP matchup on 2v2 Guiroma). I do not expect them to break out from it, and I feel fairly safe to predict three losses against CORP incoming (assuming Ven will join and play his games). The one loss against Preußen Garde comes from Ven not joining his game, as said before, otherwise it's all wins. German Warlords do very poorly in this division, and CORP already has 3 wins against them, any CORP loss in remaining two games against [GER] would be a massive upset. Lu Fredd deserve their own write up - see below.

Templates-wise: we see a very good 80% winrate on 1v1 ME and decent 60% winrate on 1v1 Guiroma - the two finished templates. Other templates however, are super scarce in games. 1v1 Volcano Island has a lone game finished, which is CORP's only win against 7th Heaven. I sure expect more wins here. 3v3 Drome has loss against the best clan and win against the worst clan, which says nothing, but I do believe in CORP team doing well here. Just take my word for it. :P



One thing we immediately notice is that Lu Fredd has many more games finished than CORP. Second thing is: while CORP had all matches against 7th Heaven already one, Lu Fredd already has all matches against the "weaker" clans of the division done, only waiting to play CORP and 7th Heaven! Seems obvious that DD will have higher points contested if they have less games against the winner. ;P

Winrates aren't perfect against any of the clans there: 80% against [NL], 60% against Preußen, 80% against German Warlords. Although that's due to problems on 1v1 Guiroma, where one player got booted in 4 games and the replacement lost the last one, against [NL] (already said it's [NL]'s only "good" template), otherwise we would see two perfect winrates! It's much worse against CORP and 7th Heaven: a whole zero games won against those clans. It doesn't even look like a competition. But maybe there's a chance for DD: 1v1 Volcano Island is the only template where 7th Heaven has as many as two losses. Maybe Lu Fredd will score 3 points there? I don't expect destroying them on 3v3 DRome. CORP is a bit more volatile, since there's the Ven factor. I'll be, however, biased and say that CORP will win at least one remaining game against Lu Fredd. (:



Overally my prognosis for CORP results is as seen below:



I'm gonna be pessimistic and predict 0 wins for CORP on 2v2 Guiroma. Hopefully it won't happen though. Wins at Volcano Island are a no-brainer, and loss against Lu Fredd on it is here to spice things up. As I said, I believe in Dror (#trustMOTD). Overally 53 points.

Prognosis for Lu Fredd:



I don't know if Lucien Müller will win his games against both Cloud Strife and The Shots. That's an optimistic variant (pessimistic for my clan). No mercy at DRor though. So we can see 50 points there, which is just a bit less than what I predicted for CORP.

Actually you are right that my wording in update was biased, since it's actually a bit closer, as seen in this post. But possibility of DD overtaking CORP is not that big.

Division Q2 - Week 7

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Finished Games

13017791 3v3 Deadman's Rome: CORP (The Shots+Baer+orionaux) defeats Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)
13028037 1v1 Volcano Island: CORP (The Shots) defeats Preußen Garde (Naglfar)
13070395 3v3 Deadman's Rome: Preußen Garde defeats German Warlords (Suschel+FC Bayern+Thoabear)

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Commentary

Most games are behind us, so we're off for slow mode. This week seen only three games finishing.

CORP has a good week, scoring wins on VI (against Preußen) and DRome (against NL). Unfortunately we also see Ven taking his last, 7th vacation for period of four days. Not an efficient use of vacation if you ask me, and it still throws a big shadow on CORP's CL future.

Preußen Garde finished 1v1 Volcano Island with (2-3), losing against CORP and scores third win on ROR, against Germans.

Lu Fredd and 7th Heaven don't finish any games this week.

[NL]... as mentioned, a loss against CORP on 3v3 DRome.

Finally, German Warlords finish 3v3 DRome with (0-5) result this week, after game against Preußen Garde with predictable outcome.

Edited 3/26/2017 15:49:03

Division Q2 - Week 8

I changed clan so my updates aren't biased anymore. :) :)

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Finished Games (by template)

3v3 Deadman's Rome
13111040 Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeats 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair)
13070394 Lu Fredd (Nobody+Arigal+ssese) defeats CORP (The Shots+Baer+orionaux)
13193130 7th Heaven (Jenova+Red XIII+Zack Fair) defeats Dutch Forever (Philippe+PeterVog+Tjerk)

1v1 Volcano Island
13153790 CORP (The Shots) defeats Dutch Forever (Lucky Light)

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Commentary

(ok so listen up @Oh, this is for you!)

Well, this is a week of surprises. Firstly, Lu Fredd wins as many as two games on 3v3 Drome on last burst, scrapping 10 points off CORP and 7th Heaven!! Overally winning the most valued template with (4-1) result. This means that window of promotion for CORP is now way narrowed. Secondly, Ven came back and CORP's remaining 2v2 Guiroma is safer now, although - obviously - no new games finished here yet.

7th Heaven wins one and loses one, but at this point it doesn't mean anything for them anymore... except finally dropping below 90% points contested (were a bit below it after week 4, but that was just a fluke). Also, right now they have only one game left to finish stage 1.

Lu Fredd right now definitely picks up second place, with winrate and contested points higher than CORP's after their DRome finish. They now need one more win against CORP to assure promotion spot.

CORP falls to third, going 1-1 this week, losing on DRome and winning on VI. Now they need to perform very consistently to avoid relegation. And still lots of games before the end...

Preußen Garde and German Warlords don't finish any game this week. Currently they have mainly only games against CORP left.

Dutch Forever go (0-2) this week and now they have reverse clinched 5th place (have lower max points than 4th place's points gotten).

go go power-corps!

thanks Onoma for the updates. biased or not, they are realy good and informative updates. (i personaly like them to be a bit biased)

tth Heaven have the spot.
now it a run between Lu Fredd and CORP. for Nr.2 .

i'm excited to se the first results from corps 2v2's.

it'll be more interesting this way though, would've been boring if this group was as straighforward as ppl predicted, much more interesting to have close fight for the 2nd spot till the end

Division Q2 - Week 9

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Finished Games:

03.04
12868641 1v1 Volcano Island: German Warlords (Janine) defeated CORP (The Shots)

08.04
13210246 1v1 Volcano Island: Lu Fredd (Lucien Müller) defeated CORP (The Shots)

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Commentary

So only two games finished, but what games these were! CORP tanked their two remaining games on Volcano Island - including important match against Lu Fredd, and a match against... German Warlords, for whom it's fifth win total in this season. CORP's max points are only four more than DD's total points.
So I was wrong in the previous update and actually CORP still has a tiny chance of promoting. However DD looks fairly safe on their promotion spot.

Overally, this is how results on each template look so far:

3v3 Deadman's Rome
(4-1) Lu Fredd, (3-1) 7th Heaven, (3-0) Preußen Garde, (2-2) CORP, (1-4) Dutch Forever, (0-5) German Warlords

Lu Fredd finished with an almost perfect score. 7th Heaven and CORP both play against Preußen Garden and these are the last two games remaining on the template. Preußen still didn't lose a game on DRome! If they try hard they might win the tournament...

2v2 Guiroma
(5-0) 7th Heaven, (3-1) Lu Fredd, (2-3) Preußen Garde, (1-3) German Warlords, (1-3) Dutch Forever, (0-2) CORP

Yeah... Ven held up whole tourney for a month, so there's a lot left to happen here. 7th Heaven and Preußen finished all their games, but everyone else has a match with CORP in advance. DD can go 4-1 and block CORP out of promotion. CORP can win the three games and finally promote. German Warlords might win their sixth game of the season. How it will finish, we will get to know in June!

1v1 Guiroma
(5-0) 7th Heaven, (4-1) Dutch Forever, (3-2) CORP, (2-3) German Warlords, (1-4) Preußen Garde, (0-5) Lu Fredd

It's long finished, so just a recap. It's one of three tournament sweeps for 7th Heaven, the template that makes up for 59% of Dutch points, and only failure of Lu Fredd (boots) - everywhere else they have at least three wins.

1v1 ME WR
(5-0) 7th Heaven, (4-1) CORP, (3-2) Lu Fredd, (2-3) Preußen Garde, (1-4) Dutch Forever, (0-5) German Warlords

The most "typical" results here, with 7th Heaven destroying their competition utterly, DD taking their three wins, Dutch and Germans on the same places as in the overall results. Long finished as well.

1v1 Volcano Island
(4-0) Lu Fredd, (3-2) CORP, (2-2) 7th Heaven, (2-3) German Warlords, (2-3) Preußen Garde, (1-4) Dutch Forever

The last game is DD against 7th ongoing, with very advanced psychological warfare on the game chat. ;) DD already won this tournament. It's the best template for German Warlords and weakest for 7th Heaven.

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Games Left to Finish Q2

3v3 DRome
Preußen Garde vs CORP
Preußen Garde vs 7th Heaven

2v2 Guiroma
CORP vs Dutch Forever
CORP vs Lu Fredd
CORP vs German Warlords

1v1 Volcano Island
Lu Fredd vs 7th Heaven

volcano is decide alrdy over a week , i even communicate with other ppls and in my ops ist a shame that a clan with so many top Player are such "bad losers"... after games decided stalling only as best as possible and boot out finally aswell can happens if the stall want to be on Maximum....

missing something there...., unlucky its even a represant of the whole clan but well its a game and free to do whatever everyone want... :/

First of all, Lucien, learn English.

Second of all, I have no idea what is going on with your game, but if I were to guess based off of what you are attempting to say, cloud is down, but knows you aren't very good, and is trying to figure a way out. Not stalling.

Third of all, cloud is the clan leader. He absolutely represents us.

Ironic that you feel the need to gloat over your supposed victory on the forum, being a "bad winner", while blaming someone else of being a "bad loser."

Edited 4/10/2017 11:44:13

i am just surpirsed that only the last turns when he noticed game is done dures 2days 23,x hours ;)


so i just use the Facts of my game and 1 other cl game - no more guy - i can think whatever u want just a fact ist stalling ! not thinking about finding a way - but ur Point of view is urs not mine , :)

What would Cloud get from stalling, this is not a ladder. And Cloud always played on a 2h10h+ basis.

idk what he get from , 2d 10h y i know and idc didnt told anything for early moves by slowplaying .....


- just wondering for last 4 turns - he is exactly 2d 23,x h hmm and online closely half day while i checking his Profile around 15 times per day...,

Man you are bothered by others playing speed too much.
The fact someone is online don't matter than he have to commit. Some people have a lot of games, some people a lot of RL stuff, some people commit in important games only when they are fit on 100%, and so on and so on.
If you know you are about to win, why to be so excited about playing speed? Just commit and move on. We have boot time to handle that games will not last forever ;)

Very true. If people are so obsessed with playing speed, they should do 1 day 10 hours boot games in important competitions or idk, 1 day 10 hours + banked boot. I personally got kicked out of a WL strategic private chat just because I was playing consistently slow on my MDL ladder games. Even if I am often online, I usually have WL in the background and commit very slow in important games and quite faster in more casual games. I was accused of being slow on purpose, just to annoy my opponents which isn't true.

I think putting pressure on people so that they feel forced to commit faster is being a douche while being slow because you don't want to be fast is just playing within the 3 days boot we are given. Other thing, on ladders, you always get new games when you finish ongoing games meaning that if you play fast, you will have to play a lot more games than if you play slow. Some people are participating in a lot of ladder/important competitions like myself and hence, I think those people might be tempted to be slow so that they do not continuously have new ladder games popping up all the time.

Edited 4/11/2017 17:16:04

as alrdy told 214987 times below aswell , idc for typical slow playing- and agreed myself aswell to Need well longer in important games, but ist still a fact after the gamedecision turn was done, every single turn Looks for maxiumum ... thats a fact no matter if ist slow Play or not


at least idc enemey is doing his Thing, its ok , ignoring and continue Play, Focus the game only



mby i am wrong with my complaining , mby not idk just wondered about the max timeuse after the gamedecision....

Time for an update Onononoma?

as alrdy told 214987 times below aswell , idc for typical slow playing- and agreed myself aswell to Need well longer in important games, but ist still a fact after the gamedecision turn was done, every single turn Looks for maxiumum ... thats a fact no matter if ist slow Play or not


at least idc enemey is doing his Thing, its ok , ignoring and continue Play, Focus the game only



mby i am wrong with my complaining , mby not idk just wondered about the max timeuse after the gamedecision....

Such a beautiful way of typing English, I need to get a hang of this.

i dont give a shit if my eng Fails hard or not - thx nobbish kid