"I usually don't boot when I see the opponent has a low boot rate and seems like a good, reliable player."
You wouldn't boot them ever, or just not very quickly?
The game in question s here: http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6101612
I booted a bit after 15 minutes.
I am still confident I'd have won, but I actually didn't realize he'd finished South Africa till after I booted, I thought it was even more won than it actually turned out to be.
He had two options IMO, both would have worked poorly for him.
He could deploy all 16 in south america, in which case I'd hit 44v34.
His better option would have been to deploy 1 in south africa, attack Congo 3v2, and get a card.
In that scenario I'd have hit 44v33.
that leaves him with a stack of 7, me with a stack of 22.
He'd have been able to deploy 21, me 16. I'd have been able to hit 37v28
That leaves me with a stack of 18, him 6 leading to a 33v22.
Then I'd finally break him as he'd have a stack of 3 and I'd have a stack of 19 leading to a 34v19.
At that point I have 20 income to his 16, and border AA with a stack of 21.
I doubt the game'd have lasted that long, but that's the best possible outcome for him, as if he tried to expand at any point I'd have finished SA and bordered AA sooner. I didn't need to expand any more to win, so there was no reason for me to do anything but repeatedly deploy and hammer him.
Edited 4/23/2014 17:50:21