Billy:

In your infinate wisdom, and my vast ignornace and puny intellectual fortitude, please explain your logic.

"Say you had an 85% chance to win those 6 times."

Why is that a good assumption?
-You screwed up the first 3 turns and didn't attack (lucky?) Not gonna even anaylze your poor playing for luck.
-And an analysis shows for the last 3 turns, the first time you had 0%, the last two 12%. So, for two turns in a row, I won when there was an 88% chance of me winning each time. Can you do the math of how many times you will succeed in either the 1st or 2nd attempt when you only have a 12% chance of winning in each instance?

Analysis:

Turn 11:
13 v 11 has a 0% chance of winning.
3 v 3 has a 0% chance of winning.

Turn 12:
14 v 11 has a 0% chance of winning.
2v2 has a 12% chance of winning. (Only reason it was 2v2 and not 2vmore than 2 was that your 14v11 was so lucky)

Turn 13:
Same as above Turn 12, 0%, 12%.

So, which turn were you supposed to get lucky in and win?

Was it before or after I took you Asia bonus and would have been able to defend Europe?

Please Please help me understand where my luck was.

Here's the way I go about it. I know you don't have enough income to break me, so I just defend. If I knew you could break me, I would have done something else. It was a remote stretch based on your lucky first attacks that your 2v2's with a 12% chance of success.


My Recommendation to Billy.

Just admit it. I wasn't lucky, you played poorly. The more insistance you have that I was lucky when EVERY SINGLE FACTOR SHOWS THAT YOU WERE THE LUCKY ONE will degrade any litt ecredibility that you have left.

I beat you because you played poorly and I didn't die of a heart attack and get auto-booted.

Otherwise, please go on about how triple picks only beat poor players.

John, regardless if you was lucky or not, keep in mind you got to be good to have luck ;)

Also I think you both should relax a bit, it is just a game :p

Just admit it. I wasn't lucky, you played poorly.

You were lucky, extremely lucky.

But in hindsight, if I had known you only had one bonus I would have simply broken it early at all costs and the game would have been over. So I guess you can call that a 'mistake'. Most people would not be dumb enough to triple pick the bonus you did, so I never considered it as a possibility. I suppose the lesson I should take away is, never underestimate the stupidity of your opponent.

Thanks for that.

So Billy, Thank you for admitting your mistake.

At what point was it not clear to you that I triple picked? Was it when I was deploying 10 armies visible to you for several turns in a row (5+5=10 - for those of you that can't do math, and Base Income is 5, and Europe Bonus = 5, and it wasn't a card turn)

The good thing about playing Monday Morning Quarterback is that you already know what happened. The thing that makes you a good in-game quarterback is how you read what is happening on the field as its happening.

Here, a good quarterback would have been able to determine by turn 6 that I had Europe as a triple pick by using simple arithmatic.

Aha, now the tables have turned!

-I have proven that Billy was Lucky and I was unlucky.
-I have Billy admitting he made a mistake.
-I have proven that Billy cannot analyze a game properly.

Now my next challenge to Billy. Please identify how you would have broken my Europe Bonus.

The answer is easy: Look at turn 10 and just ask yourself where else you could have attacked other than Niger.

If you would have attacked Algeria (14v4) I won't do the math, but I think thay may have won and left you with 10+ armies on my border. The next turn, you could have attacked my 11 armies in Spain, with 19, and... hey, you probably would have broken Spain and won.

So, In Summary:
I have proven that I did not have luck on my side.
I have proven that Billy should have known I triple Picked Europe.
I have proven that there was a course of action given the known facts that would have guarenteed Billy's victory.
The game shows Billy Obviously deviating from the path to victory.
I have not died of a heart attack and didn't get booted.

Now, ladies and gentleman of the jury, I now ask you. Would the greatest player in the world have really made this many mistakes?

And bringing it back full circle to the original topic of the forum post.

This game, analyzed ad naseum (sp?) just shows that a triple pick can give you a tremendous income early on. From there, its up to the other person to make mistakes for the triple pick to win.

a triple pick can give you a tremendous income early on. From there, its up to the other person to make mistakes for the triple pick to win.

I agree with that. With the caveat that you also getting extremely lucky can lead to a win as well, as happened in our game.

Please, please do NOT try to use math when you do not know anything about it... I have no time nor interest in reading every detail, but... that just hurts my eyes...

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3566086

That was a bit greedy burgoo, what if he picks ant 1 (as he should) and gets first pick?

#yolo

terrible choise....

3 picks to take + 3 ?? and no bonus the turn after ?

If the opponent comboed in russia or africa , he'll destroy you

yeah, awful pick against any decent player. australia is completely redundant. you shouldn't expect to get both s america and antarctica if your opponent knows what they are doing. you only make 5 picks. south america should be #1 not #2. central america is useless without south america. you leave russia unpicked.

and you should attack colombia with 3 on the first turn.

you only won because your opponent tried to take all 3 bonuses at once.

pulling out 3 pickers is definetely very hard. You need to first realize what are the gambles you are making and how you can be screwed.
BUT, if done correctly, it can put you with great initial income AND (you should always look for one triple picking) SAFETY. A well planned triple pick will mean that your opponent will only threat the maximum of 2 borders at a time, leaving him to have to win either with a similar strategy, bigger medium game income or better fighting.

I wasnt doing so much until 2 months ago, when building safety in picks were getting more specialty of mine. And definetely can work wonders, but you really really need to make the correct moves and not waste the armies you gain in useless positions.

This week i did win like 5 games with triple picking and lost one. The game i lost the guy was really smart giving up the position and changing venues, i had a proper position until the point he double threated me correctly.

And one more thing, its rare to see i making triple pick to one combo, most of the time the 3rd pick build side safety and can be helped with the original bonus left overs. So its not a combo pick as it is side safety.

Sorry to post again, this games i won this week made me want to post.

Cool, do you want to post them? I won't comment, I'd just like to see them =)

Piggy maybe you'd like to see also my victorious triple pick:
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3593053 :D

Oh for the love of god.

how to predict triple pick and fail miserably to counter it
http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3591903

I know that feel, ps. But that's not really a triple pick, since north africa and the other two starts don't combine at all. It's a double pick and a shitty fourth pick.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3577036

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3625290

triple pick vs busted triple pick.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=3734301

There's one where myself and the opponent triple-picked.