Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:15

It would be awesome and also very surprising if you could teach me something new about warlight

Billy Walsh is an old school player where 16% luck weighted random was common. As stuff switched to no luck I also had to pull out my calculator to see what my new options are. Also the question about how to play with immediate opponent contact is valid.

Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:21

Luck on those fucking 3v2's in round 1 would determine the game a lot.

No it would not. Are you sure you played back then?

Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:29

Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:34

The amount of games I played on 16% WR and 0% WR there were only a handful that I could say: Yeah, I or my opponent lost straight up because 3v2 luck. Most of those scenarios involved missing an FTB. 2 of them involved taking a 2-turn 5 from 1 warlord. Whenever I see someone not named Timinator complain of 3v2 luck on that ladder (He has awful 3v2 luck, but never publicly complained about it), it's an easy indicator of someone who lacks fundamental understanding of the template.

Edited 4/28/2016 16:20:06

Billy does make some interesting threads and chuckle worthy posts

2*0.7 = 1.4 so with 0% luck weighted random you had a 40% chance that 2 neutrals kill 2. This means if you start out with 3 completely safe 4v2 attacks you already have a 6.4% chance that you lose 3 additional armies compared to your lucky opponent. Since in my scenario this luck happened first turn it has a huge impact. You could argue now that let's say 80% is still skill and I won't necesarily disagree however when playing for example a single elimination tournament you win 6 games due to superior skill and then then 7th guy gets dirty lucky and you fail to recover.

Edit: I just thought about it and came to the conclusion that on the 1v1 ladder luck should have been the most dominant factor. Reason is that the ladder pairs players up with equally capable players. If I have time I will look into the WarLight API and see if it's possible to extract the needed data. What I'm interested is the win chance of players who got more lucky than their opponent during the first... two turns.

Edited 4/28/2016 17:04:35

We're talking purely on a ladder basis here. Single Elim on any template involving WR could end up with the last game being decided on luck, but that's just as likely to happen with any game.

Look, if you take a sample size of 100s of games (let's say, oh idk, MoD/HHH playing WR ladder at 5 games at a time for almost a year), how many of those games would you think would be decided on luck? As many games as you would lose from luck, you should win from luck as well, it already offsets, but beyond that even if you have horrid luck, then how come those 2 players on the ladder MAINTAINED an over 80% winrate? It's because you can make decisions which mitigate bad luck. A superior position is a superior position down 1-2 armies or not. An equal position down 2 armies becomes a more defensive position than offensive. If you can't identify these things, then you're completely overlooking the whole point of WR.

Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:40

You literally just said 3v2s can have a high impact early, and I pointed out the only 2 cases where that's plausible and you backpedaled saying I took you too literally.

Well which is it? Do you actually think 3v2s had a high impact in WR?

I get that they have no impact in SR, but I specifically remember you moaning about luck back then. If you'd like me to, I can go find the posts really quick since you had only a couple threads.

It's really funny though, you couldn't grasp the fundamentals of the WR ladder, and here you are in this thread showing that you can't grasp the fundamentals of the SR ladder.

Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:45

I put a lot of effort into figuring out where my opponent might be, crossing off where I know they aren't etc. I also add notes, like move order.

<- i usually do this in my head

Edited 5/4/2016 02:52:55

Edited 5/4/2016 02:53:00

Billy rewatching the game fastly is mich faster flr me than makung screenshots, save them, paint on them and then open them to look at it. And i'm confident that i can do that in my head.

Also i bet krzychu doesn't take ladder games as serious as you might, cause he plays longer on it and isn't on a run

Edited 4/28/2016 19:23:45

When playing serious team games I also write down the move order in team chat. When it's 1v1 then I tend to use the public chat for it... whatever.

At least in 1v1 games I have never problems losing track about where I expect my opponents. However I should also write down some more stuff I guess like when my opponent missed a card piece. Especially in real time team games I can lose completely track having just a rough feeling about when my opponents get their next card piece. Anyways, thanks for the advice Billy, I will take your idea and incorporate it into my own gameplay :)

Edited 5/4/2016 02:53:06