Saturday Update: 07/16/2016(
All graphs in here can be found at http://tinyurl.com/cl8a-fancy)
I haven't been paying that much attention to this division so I personally can't fill you in on all the intricacies of what's happened this past week. In a way, this update's gonna be my first real look at the division- so bear with me. :P On the bright side, any updates you make aren't gonna be disruptive at all to me. I'm also not the one currently updating the actual sheet, but if anyone wants to do that- just head to the link above and go to the "Tournaments" display. Then it should be pretty straightforward to just transfer the info.
Without further ado, the update:
ProgressThe season continues steadily as we're now at 47% completion on 1v1 and 26% completion overall.
Games are finishing at a pretty reasonable rate- keep in mind that the last 3 days on the chart are not yet finished being added to the system (still waiting for some games w/ final turns on those 3 dates to finish).
The pace also seems to have stabilized a bit on a daily basis instead of fluctuating.
I think tournament speed's the most telling, though:
Y'all clearly love French Brawl and play hella slow on Strat ME 1v1 probably due to how tight that contest is.
On the clan end, the pace of play doesn't vary too much, although Lynx recently just finished a bunch of games (including a win by Hades today). French and GG lag behind a bit, but nothing too interesting or surprising here:
Status
Looks like it was a great week for Lynx who just pulled a 6-1 record. They played more games than anyone else but only got 1 loss. The only clan with fewer losses than them this past week is the clan that didn't finish any games during the timeframe. I'd call that a success. Their winrate went up by 9% and they've got just the slightest lead in the first place competition right now.
Right now Lynx are beating >75% of predictions and holding 1st with 52 points. It's not a meaningful lead, though- both the MASTER Clan and the Icelandic Turtles are close enough to Lynx that they might as well be tied right now. Lynx has also apparently faced a somewhat easier opponent pool so far- so it's a tight race.
Below the podium, we have French with a small lead over GG, then a drop-off of about the same size over Apex. And then WG with a <10% success rate so far. Most clans in the division are still undefeated against WG, actually.
Of course, we've got a lot of games left to finish- about 75% of the season, in fact. So here's what the current standings mean in terms of how tight the contest is:
As you can see here, the MASTER Clan and Icelandic Turtles need to just very lightly outperform Lynx in their remaining games to take them down. It's a tight race and Lynx's current lead- or the gap between 2nd and 3rd- might as well be nonexistent.
Below that, though, we see a bit of separation. The French will have to outperform the clans above them by over 5% to catch up to a podium spot. Their lead over GG is even smaller- GG just needs to outperform them by 3%. Really, if we see a drastic success rate shift of 5-10% among any of these clans, that would just change the game for leadership. Not a whole lot of separation in the top 3 and no big scary gaps in the top 5. Apex doesn't have that much of a climb to a non-relegating 5th place, either. It's just WG that's gonna suffer a bunch from their start. In terms of how much they need to succeed in their uncontested points, it's easier for for 5th-place GG to clinch first than it is for WG to climb their way out of relegation.
This is a big reason why:
WG's got a serious boot problem.
Here's the raw horse race:
Gives you an idea of where the gaps are right now- top 3 are close, 4th is distanced from both top 3 and the 5/6 fight, 5/6 fight is close, and WG's lagging behind.
Here it all is in terms of points won as the season progresses:
And simplified to success rates so you can see the climbs (like Lynx's this week) and slumps (like Apex):
Still a lot of movement when it comes to ranks:
Over the remaining ~75% of the season, I guess we'll have to see who breaks through in the current race for 1st, whether the French climb, fall, or stay put, who ends up with the 6th-place relegation spot (and how narrow the gap is between 5th and 6th)... and whether WG manage to shake off their weak start and become contenders for a non-relegating spot or maybe even the podium.
Edited 7/17/2016 12:15:26
