Week 10 Summary:

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There is an obvious slow down in the number of games completed recently. Most games are done with the slowest players holding things up. Only a few pivotal games are left. By that I mean at this point it has become increasing obvious Lu Fredd will promote from Division D1. They have a sizeable lead (+23 vs. ILLUMINATI▲ and +21 vs. M'Hunters) and are now tied for max points with ILLUMINATI▲. The gap between the top three has been consistent and M'Hunters and ILLUMINATI▲ don't seem to be able to catch Lu Fredd.



Note: M'Hunters Max Points is 164.

So M'Hunters and ILLUMINATI▲ switch spots yet again but I ask: Who cares? If neither are promoting then at this point the tension has begun to deflate. General Chou's number of losses is making it hard to pass CORP. So who comes in 2nd or 3rd doesn't matter and I doubt CORP will loose 4th.

So it seems like the results are baked in. Very little should change pending a bolt of lightning or something like that.

Szeurope has a winner and its Lu Fredd with a (6-0) record! Congrats to Taji and Gardo91!

Edited 12/28/2015 21:49:42

Hawks 49 Points Max 57 and one game left?

that's the most important game of their lives

the NL guys fight for 26 points in 3 games too, it must be really stressful

Edited 12/28/2015 23:54:24

I guess my apathy towards updating this thread isn't that obvious and I should pay attention to what I'm updating :P

Edited 12/29/2015 00:20:35

Week 11 Summary:

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Lu Fredd clinched the promotion spot, let me be the first to offer them congratulations! Who saw that coming, eh?




Some marginal movement among the clans this week. Lu Fredd (1-0) has remained steadfast at 169 max points for awhile now, its a testament to their strength. ILLUMINATI (1-1)and M'Hunters (1-2) continue their swapping and I'm finding it tiresome to edit the tables. I want a moments peace! General Chous (2-0) continuing to shadow CORP (2-3) with the difference in max points is 10 points between the clans. I continue to doubt General Chous ability to pass CORP but there is a possibility. Dutch Forever (1-2) and Hawks (0-0) are interesting how their points are broken down. Dutch Forever is stronger at 1v1 and 2v2 but does poorly at 3v3 with Hawks struggling most at 2v2 but have a slightly more even distribution of points across the types of templates.



Kudos to General Chous for having the strongest 5th place result in this season of Clan League (pending the results of Group A). Not normally something to be proud of but I think its an accomplishment! And its recognition that despite Lu Fredd winning with a comfortable lead this division was very tight.

Now that Lu Fredd has won we can move on to the much less thrilling race between CORP and General Chous. Does anyone think CORP is in for a late game stumble?

Note: Looking at the General Chous vs. CORP 3v3 WR game shows a General Chous player getting booted -.-

Edited 1/11/2016 17:42:48

thanks GE for updating!

i think CORP will hold the 4th place, but it will be really close.

Week 12 Summary:

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Only 5 games finished this week but we are almost done! Only 7 games left to finish, each spread across the 5 2v2 and 3v3 tournaments. Lu Fredd (0-1), one week after clinching the division, is the first clan to finish all games. I thought Lu Fredd would beat CORP on 3v3 and reach 169 but alas they finish with 164 points and a respectable win rate winning 2 out of 3 games.

ILLUMINATI (1-1) and M'Hunters (0-1) circle each other continuously. Quelle surprise! Both clan's win rate have dropped recently to around 61%. Not stellar by any stretch of the imagination.

Dutch Forever (0-1) and Hawks (1-0) are about as lose as you can get at this point.

I expect to see 1-2 more clan finish all games next week as things slowwwww dowwwwnnnnnnnnn....



Now onto CORP and General Chous. Tied in points with CORP leading with Max Points. I wanted to breakdown the games left for each clan and make some predictions (*spoiler* CORP will beat out General Chous) because there isn't anything left to talk about. Seriously.

            CORP                                    General Chous
Games Left 
3v3 WR: CORP vs. General Chous                 3v3 WR: CORP vs. General Chous
3v3 SR: CORP vs. M'Hunters
2v2 Guiroma: CORP vs. M'Hunters

The ONLY path to victory for General Chous is to win the 3v3 WR game against CORP and hope CORP looses the 3v3 SR game against M'Hunters. If CORP wins the 3v3 SR against M'Hunters then CORP should beat out General Chous in a tiebreaker (I assume you use the other game stats like record, win rate, etc. to determine the winner) or win with more points.

So I predict CORP will move on but it would be shockingly awesome if General Chous squeaked through. When there is only one path to victory, its not gonna happen.

Just to be a bit ILLUMINATI-centric for a moment, I would prefer CORP to win the games against M'Hunters to guarantee 2nd in the division. It doesn't matter if my clan is 2nd or 3rd, only 2nd is a slightly higher ego boost, that's all.

Thanks for the awesome analysis all through the league, Great Expanse! This has been fun, pleasure playing with all of you. Fingers crossed for that single path upset!

Week 13 Summary:

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We are right at the end now, only 4 games left! The horse race has gotten so incredibly tight that its a pity that none of it matters anymore. General Chou's cannot pass CORP and the promotion spot is already claimed. That sucks...



Some stray observations:

• Hawks (1-0) is the second clan to finish. They are in a decent position to hold 6th place.
  
• CORP, ILLUMINATI and M'Hunters have narrow the margin between each other. The spread of points is much larger then the spread of win rates. With ILLUMINATI and CORP barely passing 60%, we could only see Lu Fredd + 1 or 2 clans cracking a 60%+ win rate.
  
• General Chou's will get relegated for next season. It a pity as in D2 they may have survived. Their ranking this season isn't indicative of their skill in future clan leagues. Its a bit early for a post-mortem but the 1v1 was their biggest weakness.
  
• Its been a rough 2 weeks for ILLUMINATI. The 2v2 Strat ME team was booted from most games, and two players (one in 2v2 Strat ME and 3v3 EU WR) went inactive -.-
  
• I assume we have 2 weeks until the final 4 games finish. Maybe 3. I hope its 2, there isn't anything to update anymore.
  
• CORP wins 2v2 Guiroma with (5-1). Congrats! A super tight tournament with ILLUMINATI, M'Hunters and Lu Fredd all finishing with (4-2).
  
• A post-mortem post analyzing the final standings, what went right or wrong for each clan, how the predictions panned out. I'm banding around an idea of unofficial 'awards' to players of interest.

0 left 2v2:
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10197903 Dutch vs ILLUMINATI
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10093246 Dutch vs MHunters

2 left 3v3
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10085943 Chou vs CORP
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10021553 ILLUMINATI vs MHunters

Edited 2/11/2016 17:22:34

Word gets around that CORP are set to beat Chou's in the 3v3 (and, 2 of their members have been booted twice in the one game =( ). If Illuminati were to beat M'Hunters, then we can have a last second jump ahead of M'Hunters, even if they do beat Dutch (and they probably will). That'd be pretty cool :)

Me and my partner beat Dutch in Szeurope so ILLUMINATI is guaranteed second place now.

This will likely come down to the M'Hunters vs. ILLUMIANTI 3v3 game as it is still on turn 4 (or somewhere around there) due to a very, very long vacation by Gimli who then went inactive -.-

But I REALLY want to finish with 150+ points so we need to win that last game.

Is it correct that Hawks has fixed its 6th place through Dutch's lost? (max points must be 56 for Dutch now?)

Edited 1/20/2016 16:13:37

:P

I have decided to not post complete updates until the very end. Posts for the winner of the remaining three games will be `made.

@Lets Fight, Hawks is guaranteed 6th now

Potential Finishes

Lu Fredd      1st
ILLUMINATI    2nd
M'Hunters     3rd-4th
CORP          3rd-4th
General Chous 5th
Hawks         6th
Dutch Forever 7th

Edited 1/24/2016 16:23:00

congratulations to us ... whoop !!!

Edited 1/24/2016 16:28:10

All 2v2 games have wrapped up! Just two 3v3 games left. Nothing has changed from the last update, CORP can still pass M'Hunters in the end.

I was just thinking about what would happen if a clan dropped out from a division above D1 and D2, what would happen?

I assume the ranking system would be used to promote a clan but at this point it seems obvious that 'assuming' the divisions are equal is wrong but there isn't anything that can be done about that. Here is a rough estimate of ranking the clans (since the games aren't finished):

      Clan          Division          Points
1st:  VS               D2              188            Promoted
2nd:  Yin Yang         D2              173
3rd:  AWF              D2              168               
4th:  Lu Fredd         D1              164            Promoted
5th:  ILLUMINATI       D1              148
6th:  M'Hunters        D1              142
7th:  CORP             D1              138
8th:  General Chous    D1              129
9th:  Olympus          D2              113
10th: Poon Squad       D2              92
11th: Juggernaughts    D2              91          
12th: Hawks            D1              57
13th: Dutch Forever    D1              52
14th: Darklords        D2              15

Lu Fredd, the winner of D1 and a promoted clan, is only ranked 4th out of the two divisions. So if another clan needs to be promoted it will only be a clan from D2. D1 has almost no chance here.

It is obvious that D1 and D2 are completely different divisions, they aren't mixed when ranked at all so is it fair to promote based on ranking the clans? No. Is there another way? No. It sucks but there isn't anything anyone can do about it. Anyways, just something to think about.

you cant compare the clans until they face each other
thats all

If it were up to me, I would schedule a head-to-head(can be any format) between Yin Yang and Illuminati and the winner gets that vacated spot.

^^^^

Without DARKLORDS being DARKLORDS, it would be very close.