Thanks for thorough explanation Lolowut.

Then you are throwing away the only mathematical sound solution.

I do, and for good reason - I don't play against mathematical entity, but against human. And as said above, humans have tendencies. Obviously, there is a risk that opponent will trow his tendencies out of the window in any particular game, but that probability is lower than 50% at any given moment.

Edited 4/7/2016 21:07:34

And then there's the unexpected option of hiding in a bush and shooting the cop :P

Easiest way to be unpredictable is use an RNG.

If you choose which territory to attack randomly, your opponent cannot predict your attack--they can only get lucky.

Game theory would likely say that no choice is always better. That is, faced with the identical situation 100 times you should sometimes choose one and sometimes choose the other.

And then there's the unexpected option of hiding in a bush and shooting the cop :P

Very sound logic actually. What if, there is territories A, B, and C?

Territory A has a doubleborder on B and C. The opponent predicts that the player will strike territory B, since it is the most strategically viable. Because of this, the opponent plays an order delay card, creates a stack in Territory C, and on last order attacks Territory A.

But, Opponent predicted wrong. The player didn't attack at all! Instead, he just built his stack, and the opponent got stackwiped since they predicted incorrectly. A third option, like you suggest.

Maybe this only makes sense in my head, or I overthought it too much ;_;

Ox, I think you misinterpreted her message as more than just banter. We're usually talking about a situation in which the opponent's best move is to accurately guess which territory will be attacked, in order to defend, and the player's best move is to accurately guess which territory will be defended, in order to break the bonus.

Yes, you can expand the scenario and it can be more complicated, but the straight up: How do I know which territory to defend/attack if it's a straight up 50/50 guess?

The answer is: There's no RIGHT way to guess it.

And then there's the unexpected option of hiding in a bush and shooting the cop :P

I'll just take this as letting them take both territories but then revealing a stack of twenty you were amassing all game lon right next to him and going into his territories brutally :P

I don't agree, sometimes a territory in warlight is just so important you can't run the risk of losing it, even if you know the other player knows this. This is probably even more likely when you don't need to risk it to win.

Buns: sometimes you can exploit that though. If your opponent knows the territory is that important, they may "know" you will defend it, so they won't waste armies on what they believe is a futile attack. Then you can defend it for "free" or perhaps only a token defense, while you use your armies to your advantage elsewhere. A gamble, to be sure, but can be a big payoff.

I know that, but what I was saying was that why take that big gamble, when you have the advantage holding the territory even with a broken bonus. I know what you guys are on about, but from what I seen people only take that gamble when they're in a losing position anyway, so you know when attacking it's more likely of them to do it when they are at a disadvantage.

RNG is a good shout, it really helps you keep down your predictability, often it's easy to pick up what a player will do, if they are a bluffer, double-bluffer, etc. After a while, you have to mix it up, and if you can't do that naturaly, then an RNG is perfect for you.

Edit: I just want to point out that this is an interested topic, but psykko is a known troll, so don't get too disheartened by his rude replies to good responses guys :)

Edited 4/7/2016 23:12:12

simple thoughts I think I'm inclined to play by generally:

Playing against a lesser player just do the objective safe and best orders, what's the safest way to secure a win here? play the same game as against a really good player and you could risk losing because of their retarded orders that good players would never do.

Playing against someone who knows how to play strategically is different. A simple thing to do, both to play well and improve, is to ask yourself some questions before you commit your orders. What can I gain from these orders? What do I risk losing? Will this be to my advantage longterm? What does he expect me to do here? Is there something very surprising I can do to better my position?

I've never been the type to watch other people's games to improve (get bored right away) so if you are the same... I can't but almost want to guarantee you will improve by just really asking yourself questions like these before you commit.

@Darkpie: Really sound advice, thanks!

What Darkpie said. A similar thing happens in Poker, sometimes a poker champ can be beaten by a noob, simply because they make stupid moves and they get lucky. If you play a lot of opponents, and they all take risks against you, then statistically you will lose some of those game.

There's a proper name for this, but I think the "rule of many numbers" applies here.

You can't make the right decision every time, because players will be smart, or be stupid, or be random. And it's the random ones that are the hardest to predict (who knew?)

I try and make random moves a lot to mask my play style, so I can use the stronger moves when it counts. (Works well in Poker too, I act dumb, throw money on stupid hands when there's not much at stake, but then when they think they have me I turn tables and piss them off royaly. Always funny as hell because they think they got beaten by a noob and I was just lucky. etc, etc...)

Darkpie: that is a very good process that I know I don't follow often enough. Sometimes I will look back at my orders and think, "at best these orders would allow me to break even".