just a quick list of games left

Guiroma
101st vs Blitz (replacement)

Battle Islands
101st vs Stahl (replacement)
101st vs REGL (replacement)

Final Earth
101st vs Blitz
101st vs SNinja
101st vs REGL
101st vs ONE
101st vs VIW
Blitz vs REGL
Blitz vs ONE

China
REGL vs Blitz
REGL vs Stahl
REGL vs VIW
Blitz vs 101st
VIW vs 101st
SNinja vs Blitz (replacement)
Sninja vs Stahl (replacement)
Sninja vs ONE (replacement, no link in replacement thread found on 1st post)

Strat ME
101st vs SNinja
101st vs VIW
101st VS ONE
SNinja vs Blitz
SNinja vs Stahl
VIW vs Blitz
ONE vs Blitz
ONE vs Stahl
REGL vs Blitz
REGL vs Stahl

Europe
101st vs Stahl
101st vs REGL
Blitz vs Sninja
Blitz vs VIW
Sninja vs ONE
VIW vs ONE
VIW vs REGL
ONE vs REGL

Great Lakes
REGL vs 101st
Blitz vs ONE
Blitz vs Stahl
101st VS SNinja
ONE vs VIW
ONE vs SNinja
Stahl vs SNinja
VIW vs SNinja

So in fight for 1st the direct match-ups left are:

101st vs Blitz: 3
101st vs ONE  : 2
101st vs VIW  : 3
Blitz vs ONE  : 3
Blitz vs VIW  : 2
ONE vs VIW    : 2

Seems like every clan in the top 4 has still to play the other clans 2-3 times each right now

And for those who waited for the two egos to end their internal battles here it comes:

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11666876
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11785724

Damn, should have played Guiroma instead.

Edited 9/4/2016 20:20:33

Nice win MIFRAN

You now have the biggest ego as you won that right by winning from Metatron :)

Metatron's ego is terrible. It just got fueled by that tourney he went 6-0; I'm sure he will blame his 0-5 in Final Earth on his partner!

The china 2vs2 One vs Sninja is:
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11751066

The game didn't started yet because of the "2 games at the same time" rule.

well basically because SNinja surrendered the tournament game i currently have 3 ongoing games on China right now so in some ways it isn't working perfectly but i'm fine with it either way. just pointed out there is no link yet so didn't know if they just forgot about it or didn't make or play it yet.

So, I will take a shot at making some predictions for the end of the season.

===Stahl expected 7th===
I think Stahl has a 99%+ chance of relegation and 80% chance to end last. Only a miracle (perfect play, Sninja losing almost all and REGL not winning too much) can save them of relegation.

===REGL expected 6th===
REGL has a 95% chance of relegation; they are pretty much also in need of a miracle. They have a small 20% chance to end last too.

===SNINJA expected 5th===
Sninja is expected to remain 5th in pretty much all scenarios. Matematically they are the only ones that can finish in 7th or 1st. But I believe they will stay in 5th with a 85% chance; they have a 5% chance to relegate, 1%- to end last, 5% chance to gain one position, 3% to gain two, and 1%- to end first or second.


Now that I made the easier part, I will get into the hard top 4; lots of guesses will be needed here, but due to recent results and max points, I will expect VIW and ONE to end in the bottom of the final 4 and Blitz and 101st/Outlaws to be in the promotion spots.

===ONE expected 4th===
I give ONE a 2% chance of winning this season, 8% chance to be 2nd, 40% chance to end 3rd, 45% to end 4th and 5% to end 5th.
Who would say at the end of the season that? Or even at the mid of it? Well weird season for ONE. A weird under performance took over the clan in 3v3s, with the most valuable tournaments in free fall and points losts in games expected to be safe wins. Unfortunatly I doubt ONE can do anything for the promotion now, they depend too much in other clans underperforming and with themselves coming back to life again...

===VIW expected 3rd===
I give VIW 3% chances of winning, 8% chances of getting second, 45% of getting 3rd, 40% of finishing 4th and 4% chances of ending 5th.
VIW fought bravely, as many I didn't expect them to make troubles in the expected ONE-Blitz-101st fight for promotion. I was wrong. Carried by AG and some exploits such as Metatron's 6-0 in Guiroma, VIW managed to do better than expected. But at the end, maybe a lack of hardline solid players prevented them from getting a better shot at promoting.


The final two is very hard to predict, even though I have some good reports in a lot of our final games, I do not know about Blitz games; so I will ignore those and try to be impartial here.

===101st-Outlaws expected 2nd===
I give 101st-Outlaws-TheClanWithAPotatoDude 39% chances of winning B, 51% chances of ending 2nd and 10% chances of ending 3rd or below.
The clan managed to come back of an awful Jinxed disappearance and a less than great average winrate in 1v1s in part caused by this but also by a very strong division there. This is explained by very good show offs in teamgames but also by an under performance of it's key opponents in the late season. Now what seems to be a 1v1 with Blitz has drawn itself, there's little room for error and key games in 2v2s and 3v3s will decide it; but the clan still has to keep it's good momentum to lock up the nomination, as it is not yet guaranteed.

===BLITZ expected 1st===
I give Blitz 46% chances of winning, 44% chances of ending 2nd and 10% chances of ending 3rd or less.
Blitz made an overall great season. Solid results through out the season so far and a very good lineup. They also profited of ONE's decline, but they have been already performing better than them ever since the mid season, so I expected them to overcome ONE for a while. In the final dispute for 1st, I put for them a better chance of winning although their max is behind 101st/Outlaws because of a lineup that rivals their main competitors everywhere but with one big asset: Medium Earth. Although they lost to the Potato team there, the Giantfrog-Wally team still has 4 games to play, from which I expect 4 wins, giving them very needed points for both the promotion and the fight for the cup. If they perform like their winrate in the other remaining games, they should be able to pull a first. Still, Blitz needs to keep playing like they did so far to avoid any surprises in the end.


So, these are my predictions. Percentages are probably problematic when it comes to suming up to 100% everywhere, but that's fairly hard to do. I tried to have them making sense for 1st but that would require more work for the rest.

I hope 101st/Outlaws win and I will ofc be rooting for them, but I also wish every clan luck in this final end of the season. I also want to state that nothing is decided yet, and that surprises can happen.

Edited 9/5/2016 05:44:18

@TeamGuns: Well weird season for ONE. A weird under performance took over the clan in teamgames. What? O.o

We are currently 2nd in FE.
We are currently 1st in China.
And got 3-0 so far in Strat ME.

What a underperformance....

Regarding to 3v3 we got a retirement but havnt spammed the whole of WL with it and made it to an excuse for not doing well, like some others have.
But since we now replaced him we can actually have fair game of 3v3.

Oh my bad, it was just in 3v3s then, I was pretty sure ONE also had one 2v2 tournament with bad results.

Btw I was just commenting about the results, I haven't followed exactly boots and I don't know the reason behind every loss.

Edited 9/5/2016 20:35:31

Edited 9/5/2016 19:51:55

i can't imagine the chat if outlaws cannot promote to division A :)

Yeah they seem to be more full of them selfs than Metatron ! which I didnt think was possible. With their talk they should easily win A league next season. ;)

Edited 9/7/2016 11:06:22

Eh MIFRAN, I am really sorry you think of us this way. I didn't mean to be gloating at the results but to comment about a division in a post where detailed commenting on B advancement was non-existant.

I didn't expect you to get pissed off at Outlaws because one member decided to make a comment on how he expected the league would end.

Did you say anything about VIW when Metatron was doing his talk? No. So don't put it on my clan because I decided to comment on the results, which is again absurd for the reason that my post wasn't to glorify Outlaws but to make a general comment about the division.

I guess people will always see stuff where there are none...

Edited 9/7/2016 09:34:42

@TeamGuns, I forgot to put a smiley - its now fixed. Was more meant to intensive the already amazing race between 4 teams and put some more pressure on u guys.
I think updates as the one u did are great ! no doubt, i might not agree on the percentages :)
But i do believe updates like that makes it more fun to participate and just shows people care! So pls carry on!
I guess we just have to show u in our last games that we deserved a higher percentage ;)

Totally agree with MILFRAN here ;)

The division is reaching its climax now and I wont list any games that have finished due to them not being reported/updated but what I will say is when the next update comes I think there is a clear battle for 1st and 2nd and a battle for 3rd and 4th.

I've got to share my feelings about ONE! I feel really bad that a couple of boots have really did their quality roster hard especially in the 3v3s that really sucks and I believe if there 3v3s was as talented as their 1v1 and 2v2 were they would be seriously challenging for promotion mininum and I mean that as no disrespect for their 3v3 team just boots was the problem as told by the retirement.

I'm near sure you guy with the players that you've got if you don't promote this season, you will defintely challenge all the good clans entering B division next season without the boots hopefully ;)

Will be very interesting to see how the table looks like in the next update if I calculated correctly the division is fast approaching the climax.

Any grammar nazi is willing to translate Platinum's gibberish to english?

Edited 9/7/2016 23:07:51

I have best English

EDIT: I have the bestest English in the world!

Edited 9/7/2016 23:17:28

i thought TG was joking when he said my french was more legible than Plat's english here

Pff what's the point with arguing with you kids..

We all know idiots will downvote my posts and yours.

Everyone should upvote this so we can arrange english teaching lessons which I will stream sometime and I can teach you all to not being a kid and we can also discuss how we can get rid of TG from France and from WarLight because absolutely nobody likes him! Not even MILFRAN!