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Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 21:04:36


Onoma94
Level 61
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But your predicted demise is ill founded.

TBH it's hard to put any clan in A into relegation spot - all of them are so strong it's almost unreal. WG and Lynx just happened to have worse score than any other non-relegating clan in A. :P
I will be surprised if winrates in Div A will be apart by more than 25%.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 21:35:39


knyte
Level 55
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@Expanse: A weaker CORP roster managed to do really well in 1v1 in CL7 D1. That's been largely replaced by a new, stronger generation, and CORP's heavy-hitters now were largely not part of the clan during CL7.

Here's CORP's CL7 roster:

1v1
Strat ME WR: mm3100 (5-1, 1st place), > Illuminati, > M'H
Battle Islands: mm3100 (5-1, 2nd place), < Illuminati, > M'H
Greece: BigMeck (4-2, 3rd place), < Illuminati, > M'H
Guiroma: Derkie (4-2, 2nd place), > Illuminati, > M'H
Strat ME SR: siirial (4-2, 3rd place), > Illuminati, < M'H
Turkey: orionaux (2-4, 5th place), < Illuminati, < M'H

2v2
Strat ME: Elroi/mm3100 (2-4, 5th place), > Illuminati, < M'H
Guiroma: Chancho/Ox (5-1, 1st place), > Illuminati, > M'H
Szeurope: Arjan Visser/Konrad Kulgajuk: (2-4, 5th place), < Illuminati, < M'H

3v3
EU WR: Konrad/Noobster/Shots (4-2, 3rd place), < Illuminati, < M'H
EU SR: oljo/Spike/yoda (3-3, 3rd place), < Illuminati, > M'H

Strong on 1v1, weak on 2v2 outside Guiroma, mediocre on 3v3

Now compare that to their CL8 roster (using * to denote a player not in their CL7 roster):

1v1
Strat ME SR: Quicksand*
Guiroma: Ink Splatoon*
Greece: BigMeck
Battle Islands: Smutny Edgar*
French Brawl: Thanatos D. Ven*
Treasure Map: Angry Koala*

2v2
Final Earth: Smutny*/Fareck*
China: Thanathos D. Ven*/psykkoman*
Strat ME SR: Thanathos D. Ven*/The Shots

3v3
EU SR: Noobster/The Shots/orionaux
Great Lakes: Angry Koala*/The Shots/orionaux

You see an already strong CORP 1v1 side get replaced by a stronger side (although they've also lost mm/Chancho, who'd likely still make at least 1 appearance each on here). They've likely put in a lot more practice into 2v2 and 3v3 and will be less mediocre there, and they've put in stronger players for their team slots. Their weaker players have also developed considerably.

This isn't unique to CORP- M'Hunters' lineup is at least as different, if not more, from M'Hunters' CL7 lineup. Hydra seems to be less changed here, though- lineup doesn't vary as dramatically from the AWF/Illuminati lineups from CL7 D1/D2.

Imho, it's going to come down to whether CORP's big shoves will get them past M'Hunters' improved roster. Either side could be argued with the limited info Tjoex probably has, since M'Hunters and CORP are both wildcards and it's hard to predict whether they'll be fighting for the top spot vs. VS or fighting for the 2nd promotion spot vs. Hydra.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 21:40:05


ChrisCMU 
Level 61
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I have a feeling people are not really looking a matchups. I predicted every matchup. I will revise mine when i find out who grona is replaced with (beren just told me he is out).

That being said, it should not change my finish order, maybe just point totals...

1) masters
2) apex
3) WG
4t) french
4t) GG
5) Turtles
6) lynx


I think Masters gets over 180 pts. Last season 164 took the title.

I think apex will only slide slightly with some people not being active. I have them at about 150 pts.

Yes, I predict WG ahead of GG and French. Some might be homerism, but Latnox went 6-0 and Mike 5-1 on solo games from GG and Gui 9-3 for French in team games. They will all be missed and point totals will suffer. I predict them both in the 100-110 pt range.

WG will miss gnuffs greece 6-0, but I think we only lose 6 pts there. Tenshi went inactive, Summer got booted. I think we offset those pt losses from Gnuff just by people not being booted. I am not predicting a change in pts for WG really, to stay in the 110-120 pt range

I predict Turtles and Lynx in the 95-100 pt range, so one or both could avoid relegation IMO.

Edited 5/31/2016 21:41:06
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 21:45:06


knyte
Level 55
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I have a feeling people are not really looking a matchups.


Too tough to do for all leagues at once. Much easier if we take it 1 league at a time.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 22:17:45


ChrisCMU 
Level 61
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Easy to do for a divison when you program a sheet that does it...as i did.

I wont predict other divisions as I do not know the players all well enough

Edited 5/31/2016 22:18:25
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 22:23:32


ZeroBlindDragon 
Level 60
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WG getting 3rd without Gnuffone, Summer and Tenshi seems very realistic.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 22:29:13


ChrisCMU 
Level 61
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Again, not looking at matchups is dumb. Why just look at who is playing? We went 3-3 on both 3v3s with gnuff and summer because she got booted. Not to mention these are not even the same templates. You guys are comparing apples to oranges

And not looking at points is dumb too. Try actually predicting every matchup before telling me I am wrong

Edited 5/31/2016 22:30:40
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 22:31:28

Sugoi - すごい
Level 57
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Some might be homerism, but Latnox went 6-0 and Mike 5-1 on solo games from GG
Yes its true that GG won't have both Latnox and Mike this season, but you didn't account all the new talent that GG has brought into their clan. And also looking at last season, people should realize that you shouldn't underestimate French. However League A is really hard to decide, I'll give you that.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 22:34:13


ChrisCMU 
Level 61
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Well, the point is to be bold. I did not predict french surge last season either, and did not predict WM collapes before that. something odd always happens, why not be bold?

Here is my matchup predictor (you can copy the sheet and use it and change to any division):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B-ywmwV_V5BEhx_Qx_jP9aGa2kmSPEKFwNGIpi9YUgM/edit?usp=sharing

Edited 5/31/2016 22:40:39
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 22:42:50


knyte
Level 55
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@ChrisCMU: Agreed. I've used the Clan League sheet for predictions in the past. Just too time-consuming to do it for this little contest since we're talking about 5 division with 6-7 clans (36-126 players) each.

Not sure why you made a new sheet for predictions when you could just as easily use a copy of the main sheet.

Edited 5/31/2016 22:43:57
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 5/31/2016 23:19:35


Peixoto
Level 63
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Sorry Chris, but I don't see WG doing well this clan league, and you're giving too much credit for gui in the french clan, he wasn't even their best player last season... anyway I believe the fight for 5-7 is between lynx turtles and WG, however I'm with ZBD and lynx will dodge the relegation, that leaves us with turtles and WG, turtles have a good lineup for 1v1s and 2v2s capable of doing well in all of them, but unlikely to win any tournament. Their 3v3 lineup is a lot weaker which will drop them a lot of points. And we have WG which imo, won't perform aswell as turtles in 1v1s and 2v2s but will outperform in 3v3s, but it still won't be enough to avoid that last place.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 02:52:53

Trixie Lulamoon
Level 55
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Sadly AOE shall not have Lisa participating in Clan League
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 04:19:05


13CHRIS37 
Level 60
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Thanks ChrisCMU for the match up generator. I have this for Group A

Apex 164
Master 139
WG 132
Turtles 117
French 105
Lynx 98
GG 95
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 05:39:39


Hades 
Level 64
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Used the spreadsheet, the only change from my initial predictions is GG sink 2 spots. I assumed the best team in each tourney would sweep, so the actual scores are likely to be closer together. The top 3 get a lower score, and the bottom 3 get a higher score than the predictions below.
1. Masters 161
2. Apex 160
3. French 136
4. Lynx 112
5. Turtles 85
6. GG 81
7. WG 80
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 06:58:04

Arkanton
Level 63
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interesting, using Chris spreadsheet I have to change my vote. Also I get that none clan will have more than 150 pts and less than 100. I save it and check during CL
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 07:58:54


TeamGuns
Level 59
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A division

1) Masters
2) Apex
3) French
4) Lynx
5) GG
6) Turtles
7) WG


B division

1) ONE!
2) 101st
3) Blitz
4) Sninja
5) VIW
6) REGL
7) Stahl


C division

1) M'H
2) Corp
3) Hydra
4) VS
5) Yin Yang
6) BIA
7) LEA



Btw, I understand people that put us on 3rd, but seriously. Predicting that we'll go 5th or that VIW will win this is kindda crazy lol... People often forget that one good player can't win a division by itself, unfortunatly for VIW, AG can't play more than 3 tournaments. 101st can well up end 3rd, but I doubt we can go lower than that, if we have no star, our strengh is that we have no weak player in our roster either. From what I've seen we're well able to beat these stars people think clans can solely on in a good ammount of games.

Also, anyone expecting WG to be ahead of Lynx is seriously either unawere of Lynx's strengh or WG weakness.
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 09:51:01


hedja 
Level 61
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People should stop making such assertive comments before the season starts.
Saying people are "crazy" for predicting certain outcomes is not something you should really be doing. What would you have said if someone told you Leicester City were going to win the Premier League last season? they were 5000-1 at the start of the season, and missed relegation in the Championship only by playing out of their minds at the very end of the season before.
Just say that you don't see it happening or that you would be surprised, have the arguments at the end of the season once everyone has proved their worth
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 13:41:47


linberson 
Level 63
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A

Gut:

1. apex
2. masters
3. FC
4. GG
5. WG
6. Lynx
7. Turtles

Sheet:

1. Masters
2. apex
3. FC
4. GG
5. WG
6. Lynx
7. Turtles

B

Gut:

1. Blitz
2. One
3. 101st
4. Regl
5. Sninja
6. VIW
7. Stahl
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 14:20:40


The Hound
Level 58
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Edited 6/1/2016 14:29:54
Clan League 8: Pronostic championships: 6/1/2016 15:50:46

Sugoi - すごい
Level 57
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Before:
1.Masters
2. Apex
3. French
4. GG
5. Turtles
6. Lynx
7. WG
_______________
After:
French 154
Master 148
apex 138
GG 135
Icelandic Turtles 100
Lynx 99
WG 99

This is what I think :P Thanks Chris for the sheet

Edited 6/1/2016 15:56:22
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