Also seems like WG is officialy relegated no? Their max is lower than GG current points...

Edited 10/10/2016 18:08:46

Thanks Hades for doing the update =)

(You have Masters written with 0 tournament wins in that column on your update here...)

I was going to do an update but I was going to wait for two of my games to finish that are soon to be over lol.

Hades you scumbag.

Hades just made Jeff upset. Good guy Hades!

#Mac'N'Cheese4Prez!

Ah true, changed it. Hush jeff, don't you have some bingo to play with your other retired friends?

So, using a winrate*(points left to play) system, we can make projections of the gap between each clan in the season and at how much points they should end if they keep their winrate the same.





Based on the gaps we can see, the fight for first and fourth is still very competitive. Turtles, Apex and WG endings are pretty safe to assume.

Lynx has a projected edge of 4.07 points on Masters, while French is ahead of GG by 5.02 points.


Given that Masters and Lynx have both incredible 73 and 75 percent winrates - or 3 points out of 4 earned for these clans - any loss above the expected loss rate of 25% will cost heavily in the end. Direct confrontations are also worth more, if a normal win gives 1/4 extra points above the expectations, a win against their direct opponent also takes away 3/4 expected points of the opponent, so direct games are worth 4x more!!



There's a little ammount of games remaining, and 4.07 is a small but consequent advantage for Lynx, Masters will need to perform very well in their remaining games to reduce this gap. Given that direct games are worth 4x normal ones, beating Lynx in a team game may be just enough to close this gap to 0.


GL for Lynx and Masters in their fight for first, to French and GG in their dispute for fourth, and Apex to maybe beat the odds and end fifth? Will be an interesting ending for sure.

Another update pls

I really like the update format TeamGuns used

Agreed!

Standings (by points won percentage):

---

   Clan       Points      Max         P.win%      Tournament wins    Predicted points

1. Lynx        158 (+4)   186        74.5 (+0.5)         1 (+1)           178.86
2. Masters     114        187 (-9)   68.3 (-3.9)         2                163.859
3. Turtles     125 (+10)  175 (-8)   63.1 (-0.8)         3                151.502
4. French       93        138        47.7                1                114.465
5. GG           83 (+8)   136 (-5)   46.7 (+1.1)         0                104.015
6. Apex         66 (+4)   118        35.1 (+1.4)         0                 84.252
7. WG           27         74 (-4)   14.0 (-0.3)         0                 33.11

Finished games:

---

1v1

---

Strat ME SR - MoD / Hades / Buns / 125ch / Window Cleaner / brisk / Verzehrer
Congrats to Buns for sweeping this tournament and showing these noobs who is boss.

Guiroma - MoD / Mars / Oh / Niko / MisterT / Miyagi / Verzehrer
MoD takes it with a 5-1 score and a tiebreaker win against MisterT for Masters. How MisterT must be feeling is a MisterE.

Greece - Jz / GreenTea / USA Biches / Wazz / MG / Timi / Chris
Jz makes this look Ez with another win for masters.

Battle Islands - Bjarke / GreenTea / Turkish / Ze / JV / timon / Andersault
Turtles love their islands, and turkish takes the home ground game.

French Brawl - MotD / Dom / Buns / Phaeril / JV / Beren / Oh Noes
French Phaeril wins on French Brawl for French community.

Treasure Map - Jz / Hades / Nackickwind / Wazz / Motoki / Chris / Reza
Nack sweeps this to get the treasure.

2v2

---

Final Earth
Lynx beat WG to claim victory! 5-0 and nobody can catch the bad boys now. Lynx grab a tourney win finally, weirdly late for the supposed leaders. Meanwhile Apex and GG deal a double blow to turtles.

China
GG take on Masters and emerge victorious. Masters, Lynx, Turtles and GG have all lost 1 game only, to another of the 4, so will be interesting to see who grabs the win. Lynx and GG lead so far on 4-1.

Strat ME SR
Nothing happened here... boooooooooring. Masters are faves to win with a 4-0 lead, only the French stand in their way.

3v3

---

EU SR
Another borrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiing one. Lynx lead 5-0, masters are on 2-0, some say they've had that score since the beginning of time.

Great Lakes
Turtles do the double against masters and GG to reach 3-1. Lynx are on 3-0. Apex are on 2-1, but do have a tidy win against turtles. Who will win? How long will they take? Will we be alive to see it? Did the chicken ever get to the other side?

Summary

---

Woah, Masters take a hit, 9 points knocked off their max points sends them tumbling. They now have only 1 max point more than lynx, and 44 points less. Lynx were predicted to relegate by 30 people, and only one valiant supporter predicted them to scrape the podium. But they're looking in a strong position to take season 8.

The other exciting news is GG are still clawing their way up to french. They're seperated by 10 points now, with a 2 max point difference and a 1% lead to french. This is extremely close. Both have 45 points worth of games left to play.

Edited 10/20/2016 21:45:27

Masters have 182 max points ^

i don't see how unless some other games finished in the mean time like the 2 wins for GG over turtles which aren't in Hades his list yet

How MisterT must be feeling is a MisterE

Oh, the puns

Yeah, I only did the one's which had been updated on the spreadsheet. I dont have permission to update the spreadsheet.

I'll update the spreadsheet in an hour...

GG picks up 2 losses on 2v2 Final Earth against Masters and French.

WG loses to both French and Turtles on EU.
Masters lose to Apex on Great Lakes.

			Clan			1v1 			2v2			3v3			Points 			Points Contested	Max Points 	Points Won %
1			Lynx			22-14			13-3			8-0			158			212			186			74.5
2			Master			24-12			9-3			2-2			118			176			182			67
3			Icelandic Turtles	26-10			8-7			4-3			130			203			167			64
4			French			18-18			7-7			4-4			102			204			138			50
5			GG			16-20			7-8			3-5			91			208			123			43.8
6			apex			15-21			4-11			3-3			76			198			118			38.4
7			WG			5-31			3-12			0-7			27			203			64			13.3

Edited 10/21/2016 18:28:05

GG hasn't lost to masters yet, a replacement game is going on.

Fixed spread sheet. Will fix my post later.

True. thanks Farah.

We have 2 replacement games on 2v2 Final Earth (announced on the CL8 retirement thread) vs Master and french Community

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11989900
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11989901

Both of them are still going on...

Would that be useful that I give you a sum up of our replacement games? with the game links and the final results? all of that in a single post? I can do that with pleasure if needed.

I'll take care of it at the end of the season. But if you can make a summary post, that would be even better!